China route awards

[aa73]

Our manager of crew resources just said at a conference that he doesn't expect AA to win the highly sought-after China routes (Chicago-Shanghai, among others), and that CO would win the routes. Anyone at CO hear any rumors?

Wouldn't surprise me in the least, AA always gets turned down when going for Asia routes. Seems like UAL and NWA always reap the rewards.

73

 

[VABB]

Our manager of crew resources just said at a conference that he doesn't expect AA to win the highly sought-after China routes (Chicago-Shanghai, among others), and that CO would win the routes. Anyone at CO hear any rumors?

Wouldn't surprise me in the least, AA always gets turned down when going for Asia routes. Seems like UAL and NWA always reap the rewards.

73

I wouldn't sweat it. If UAL liquidates (which is a very strong possibility), then AA will have to pick up the majority of those flights.

 

[C-150ETOPS]

Quoting Roy E. outside the AA enviroment doesn't help anyone.

Without knowing his track record, the readers here might infer he actually has a clue or might posess even the slightest skill in forecasting or analysis.

To recap, you posted his thoughts here, after you read a post on another forum by a author who "heard" it from another pilot who says he was at this crew meeting. We're talking "Miss Cleo" credibility with this much rumour passing.

(For the non-AAers, Miss Cleo was more accurate in her day than this manager)

 

[aa73]

Quoting Roy E. outside the AA enviroment doesn't help anyone.

Without knowing his track record, the readers here might infer he actually has a clue or might posess even the slightest skill in forecasting or analysis.

To recap, you posted his thoughts here, after you read a post on another forum by a author who "heard" it from another pilot who says he was at this crew meeting. We're talking "Miss Cleo" credibility with this much rumour passing.

(For the non-AAers, Miss Cleo was more accurate in her day than this manager)

That's what this board is for - posting rumors, as well as facts.

If you reread my post, you'll note that I'm asking for a CO pilot's point of view on the subject, based on what Roy E. said.

Lighten up Francis

73

 

[D-Bo]

I wouldn't sweat it. If UAL liquidates (which is a very strong possibility), then AA will have to pick up the majority of those flights.

You have such a hard on for UAL and it's failure. Tell you what. Since you say it is a "strong possibility" I'll make a bet with you. I'll bet you $500 that they will still be around 3 years from now. No joke. You think you know it all so this should be easy money for you. If I lose I will really pay you. I'm not just talking. Do you want to take me up on it? Let me know.


By the way, just curious, are you in the industry? If so in what capacity?

 

[C-150ETOPS]

Sorry aa73, my vent was directed at our "buddy" manager. More than a few of our group still quote him as a credible source.
I've also seen this subject totally spin itself at 3 different boards and each rumour reference the other boards in a continuous circle, with none having any good info.

On the subject of the route award, I know nothing. However, my bet is that CAL gets it. Here is my "pet" theory. One might think that the Repub Speaker of the House as well as Repub Senators from TX might tip the balance over the "blue" state of NJ in awarding the slots to AA over CAL, but I think the Bush family behavior tips it the other way. Anytime anyone ever crosses Bush senior, Junior, Jeb, or their friends and family, they get "paid" back with retribution such as trashed careers, reputations, ect, and that takes priority over any Republican party issues any day.
AA fits in this because Don Carty was a friend and neighbor of GWB and we, (AA labor), had him very publicly humiliated and fired. I wouldn't be suprised if Rep Hastert was told he'll get help for UAL, but when it comes to AA, stand aside.

Again, this is just a personal theory based on watching the Bush machine in DC, TX and FL.

I have to go now, I hear the thumping of a black helicopter and the banner ads on this page are flashing at the right frequency to control my mind.

 

[AA717driver]

Roy Everett has stated unequivocally that the furloughs in April will be the last. He and his people are working feverishly to nail down what year it will be...

Roy is an empty suit. Every airline has them and they usually gravitate to manpower planning. Kind of like a weather man--they don't have to be real accurate because things are always changing.TC

 

[General Lee]

And DL won't get it? There is already an airline flying from NYC (JFK) to Beijing (Air China 744 4 days a week). And, ATL handles more passengers than any other airport in the World. That would allow for great connections to everywhere in the Southeast, Carribean, and South America. I think (and hope) DL has a shot.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[FDJ2]

DL has a shot.

Probably a pretty good shot for the '06 route, probably no chance for '05 since we didn't apply for the '05 route. I got this off the Delta Net.

Delta has applied for authority to serve China. The U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) has begun a carrier selection case to choose two air carriers to operate new flights to China, one service to begin March 2005, and one in March 2006.

Delta has proposed daily nonstop service from Atlanta to Beijing in March 2006. If awarded the route, Delta’s service would be the first ever nonstop flight between the Southeastern U.S. and China.

Delta's bid to provide daily service between Atlanta and Beijing continues to win broad support from government officials. Endorsing the proposed service are U.S. House and Senate Aviation subcommittee chairs, more than two dozen mayors, 44 airport directors and governors, and economic development officials representing 13 states.

 

['72Gremlin]

And all this time I thought UPS got the China routes...

 

[80drvr]

[QUOTE='72Gremlin]And all this time I thought UPS got the China routes...[/QUOTE]

They received routes from the last round of awards.

 

[aa73]

C150 - interesting theory, and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if that were the reason.

BTW, I don't trust Roy's outlook either, never did.

TC - when Roy talks about ending furloughs, he's talking about for the month only.

73

 

[VABB]

You have such a hard on for UAL and it's failure. Tell you what. Since you say it is a "strong possibility" I'll make a bet with you. I'll bet you $500 that they will still be around 3 years from now. No joke. You think you know it all so this should be easy money for you. If I lose I will really pay you. I'm not just talking. Do you want to take me up on it? Let me know.


By the way, just curious, are you in the industry? If so in what capacity?

I am an analyst, and one of my specialties is airlines.

I'll take you up on your offer. But, here are the conditions. First, 3 years from now, UAL has to have emerged from bankruptcy, they cannot continue to operate under Chapter 11. Second, if UAL is still around 3 years from now, it has to be the original. Not UAL 2 or UAL 3.

I don't think I know it all, but I also know that the numbers don't lie. And the numbers do not look good. If they did, UAL would be talking about emerging from Chapter 11.

 

[FDJ2]

I don't think I know it all, but I also know that the numbers don't lie. And the numbers do not look good. If they did, UAL would be talking about emerging from Chapter 11.

Just for the record, it looks like UAL is talking about emerging from BK this fall. Whether or not it does and whether or not they can avoid going back into BK is yet to be determined.

Report: CEO expects carrier to be a 'different company' after two years of protection.
January 22, 2005: 9:13 PM EST
CHICAGO (Reuters) - The chief executive of United Airlines said he expects the carrier to emerge from bankruptcy in the autumn, the Chicago Tribune reported in its Sunday edition.

United Air's Glenn Tilton told the newspaper the airline "will emerge from bankruptcy in the fall a different company."

 

[skykid]

VAAB,

Based on you posts here, I'd say you are not much of an analyst. FDJ2 just showed you are not even keeping up with current events. You are the same guy who called Frontier1 a "bottom feeder" for flying for Frontier. What airline do you fly for?