Chicago Express

[antney]

yea sadly Im coming to realization that I have to start looking at other regionals. From what has been going aorund here this past week things dont look good. well back to drawing up the resume again.

 

[Typhoon1244]

Originally posted by ataopsdave
...no new planes for C8

Guys...I don't work there, but I have very--very--close contact from people who do. They're telling me that Windy City will not survive on SF-340's. They've got to either re-equip or go down in flames...and ATA isn't likely to let that happen.

The noises that I'm hearing are that the company is looking for a one-for-one fleet replacement sometime in the near future. (A mixed fleet is not a viable option.) I understand that Q400's or the new generation of ERJ's are possibilities.

I know: there are rumors and there are rumors...but this source is pretty credible. Don't give up on Chicago Express yet.

 

[T-Gates]

yea sadly Im coming to realization that I have to start looking at other regionals. From what has been going aorund here this past week things dont look good. well back to drawing up the resume again.

Things are that gloomy at C8???

 

[ataopsdave]

I dont think it looks that gloomy. It is just that we are getting killed weight wise on the SAABS and no new aircraft are expected in the near term

 

[Turbo]

http://www.vcall.com/ClientPage.asp?ID=85439

Click on 'Questions and Answers.' Chairman, President, and CEO of ATA, George Mikelsons, says no new planes for C8.

"How is Chicago Express performing and are you looking at any aircraft changes or additions, including possibly regional jets in that operation?"

"Ah, Chicago Express is doing quite well, but at this point in time we're not looking at adding any aircraft AT ALL to Chicago Express."

Antney--what is the word around there? You talk like it is bad, bad news...

 

[ataopsdave]

Yeah I heard the call...does not sound good, but you never know

 

[FlyChicaga]

Who knows, maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I don't see a need to throw in the towel just yet. Seeing as I'm in the bottom 1/3 of the seniority list, I'd probably have the most to lose if we furloughed. I think most of this gloom is product of the ATA class cancellations.

From what I understand from talking to some ATA guys, this is just standard G. M. practice. Move slowly and cautiously when making large decisions regarding the future of the company. You can see countless examples of companies that tried to grow too fast, and thus failed. An example that sticks out in my head right now is Kiwi.

I think management at both sides (ATA and CEX) are trying to decide what the best course of action is regarding aircraft purchases before shelling out all that cash. Better to think through such a large decision, before purchasing a bunch of 50-seat RJs, which according to industry analysis are beginning to become outdated. Most passengers, although preferring jets to turboprops, aren't fond of the 50-seat RJs. The move is now to the 70-100 seat range aircraft.

The problem is that you can't just buy a plane. You need to purchase the support equipment associated with it. Training costs can be exorbinant, since you not only need to train the pilots, but also the F/As, rampers, mechanics, and others associated with keeping the fleet running. You'd need to completely overhaul most of the operations manuals. Should you get an airplane that now requires two or even three F/As, you'd need to "mass hire" and double or triple that seniority list. The list goes on.

Currently, even with the problems regarding W&B, from what I understand we are still in the black. A further weight increase would definitely hurt, but plans are in the works to try and make adjustments to lessen the blow. That's just a bridge that needs to be crossed when we come to it.

Whatever happens, I doubt any of us will hear about it until the deal is signed. There are just too many bloodthirsty companies out there with cutthroats at the helm who will rush and use their advantage of more assets to compete. This goes for ATA and CEX. Just look at what happened to Midwest Airlines (formerly Midwest Express) when they announced new service back a year or so ago, before they had the assets in place. Northwest Airlines moved in before hand on the market, landing a tough blow to the MKE based company.

For the moment, I'm just going to keep working, while keeping a watchful eye on the industry around me. That's all any of us can really do. Nothing I can do to change anything.

"Worrying is like a rocking chair. It will give you something to do, but you're not going anywhere."

 

[antney]

hey turbo I want to clear something up. things are not bad here at all. If we look at growth yes then I would say the impression were getting is not that much if any. So its up to attrition and with ATA supposolly at the end of their hiring thing our attrition might slow down alot now. Working at C8 is great, fun, great people, its just a good time. But its also tough beening a FO at the salary were at on a turboprop and possible upgrade, growth, is not looking so good right now. I hope things change here, I love flying out of midway and Chicago. I also have to realize if things somehow "get" bad, i have to be ready to maybe move in a new direction. I dont want to make a lateral move if i dont need to. I do beleive good things will come to C8, I guess we just have to wait and see, and maybe cross our fingers a little, lol!
Anthony

 

[ilinipilot]

Keep in mind the status quo is MUCH cheaper than the alternative. If you add new planes, new destinations etc, you are venturing into unknown territory.

SEP 11th made all the airlines very aware of how quickly things change in a heartbeat. THere is no incentive now to make huge changes unless you are sure of the outcome.

Plus if you add capacity now and or destinations you are adding more seats that are being snatched up by the people flying on lower fares and restricted fares. So you are really busting your hump for a very very small profit margain.

Again limited incentive. The longer you operate your current assests the lower your fixed costs will become, depreciation leases etc. by adding new planes, routes you add new fixed costs which have to be absorbed somehow and where.

D

 

[Turbo]

All have made very good points. Growth in this industry is fleeting at best, and can completely swallow an airline's profitability at worst, if it's sought too hastily. Some pilots have positioned themselves at places on the promise of growth (quick upgrade, new jets, etc.) only to be thoroughly demoralized when such growth doesn't happen. Most of us follow this industry, including it's rumors and hearsay, very closely. But the moral of the story, as Antney reminded us, is to make sure you find yourself at a place with great people, where you enjoy going to work. Growth or no growth, I think those at Chicago Express have done just that.