CAL stock up 250% in last 12 months

[ACWild]

Employees can buy stock at a discounted rate.

 

[SEVEN]

I'm kicking myself. I saw it at $25 and watched it slowly reach $40 before I bought it. I think it still has the potential with it's current momentum to reach over $55 a share.

 

[Traderd]

CAL has had a very good run. But when the market opens, I'm going to buy Dec $50 puts for $5.60 each. The more it goes down from its current $44.97 price, the more those puts will be worth. I'm betting they will be worth $9-$10.00 by the end of the week. I will post within a half hour of when I sell the puts.

You seem to have a lot of company in seeing the downside of this stock.

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CAL $ 44.97 [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Continental Airlines [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Shares Short 20,849,432 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 3.8 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Short % of Float 23.19 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Shares Short - Prior 18,949,832 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Short % Increase / Decrease 0.02 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trading Volume - Today 5,204,700 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trading Volume - Average 5,475,000 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 95.06 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Total Shares - Float 89,910,000 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Total Shares - Outstanding 90,103,298 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]% Held by Insiders 0.21 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sector: Services Industry: Major Airlines [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SI Record Date2006-Nov [/FONT]

JetBlue is sitting at about the same short levels:

JBLU $ 14.74

Jetblue Airways Corporation

Shares Short 51,690,778
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 10.5
Short % of Float 35.57 %
Shares Short - Prior 54,635,276
Short % Increase / Decrease -5.39 %
Trading Volume - Today 2,671,139
Trading Volume - Average 4,909,939
Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 54.40 %
Total Shares - Float 145,310,000
Total Shares - Outstanding 175,712,310
% Held by Insiders 7.49 %
Services Industry: Regional Airlines
SI Record Date 2006-Oct

As a point of reference:

AMR 10.81%
LCC 7.50%
UAUA 6.02%
AAI 16.49%

Here is some real short interest:

OSTK (Overstock.com) currently with 78.91% of the float short.

Good luck with your trade.

 

[SEVEN]

You seem to have a lot of company in seeing the downside of this stock.

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CAL $ 44.97 [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Continental Airlines [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Shares Short 20,849,432 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 3.8 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Short % of Float 23.19 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Shares Short - Prior 18,949,832 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Short % Increase / Decrease 0.02 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trading Volume - Today 5,204,700 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trading Volume - Average 5,475,000 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 95.06 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Total Shares - Float 89,910,000 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Total Shares - Outstanding 90,103,298 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]% Held by Insiders 0.21 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sector: Services Industry: Major Airlines [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SI Record Date2006-Nov [/FONT]

JetBlue is sitting at about the same short levels:

JBLU $ 14.74

Jetblue Airways Corporation

Shares Short 51,690,778
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 10.5
Short % of Float 35.57 %
Shares Short - Prior 54,635,276
Short % Increase / Decrease -5.39 %
Trading Volume - Today 2,671,139
Trading Volume - Average 4,909,939
Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 54.40 %
Total Shares - Float 145,310,000
Total Shares - Outstanding 175,712,310
% Held by Insiders 7.49 %
Services Industry: Regional Airlines
SI Record Date 2006-Oct

As a point of reference:

AMR 10.81%
LCC 7.50%
UAUA 6.02%
AAI 16.49%

Here is some real short interest:

OSTK (Overstock.com) currently with 78.91% of the float short.

Good luck with your trade.

Thanks. If you watch it closely you can make money. This is a stock as with all airline stocks you don't want to buy and not watch it closely. But you can make money for sure with CAL right now.

 

[bizicmo]

What does it mean to short the stock? Just trying to learn more about the stock market.

 

[BluDevAv8r]

How is CAL doing with all those 757's trying to keep RASM up on those routes?? And Ben, why all the JetBlue bashing?

Truck,

Using the 757-300 to FL has nothing to do with keeping RASM up but rather - it keeps CASM down. It is the lowest CASM airplane in our fleet, including the widebodies.

-Neal

 

[tomgoodman]

Shorting is dangerous

What does it mean to short the stock? Just trying to learn more about the stock market.

It means to sell stocks you don't yet own, hoping to buy them at a lower price before you must deliver them to the buyer. If the stock price drops during this brief period, you pocket the difference. But if the stock zooms, you must buy (cover your short position) AT ANY PRICE! This is called a "short squeeze", and your losses are potentially unlimited.

A classic story involved Cornelius Vanderbilt. Speculators shorted stock in one of his railroads, having already bribed crooked legislators to deny him a critical route award. Sure enough, the stock fell. But the Commodore quickly had his agents buy up virtually all of the shares, so when the speculators tried to "cover their shorts", Vanderbilt dictated the price, and squeezed them like a grape.

 

[satpak77]

the notion that a loss on a short is unlimited is incorrect if standard Stop-Loss orders are used, just like a regular "long" buy.

A long investor will buy Stock ABC at $20 and place a Sell Stop at say 10% loss point, or at $18. If it hits 18, he is out, done, no questions asked. Hopefully of course, it goes up.

A short seller will short Stock ABC, at say $20, and place a Buy Stop (reverse of Sell Short) at the 10% point, which is $22, or a 10% gain on the $20.

If it goes up, against his bet that it will decline, he is out when it hits 22 bucks, no questions asked.

If the stock continues to go up to $500 a share, he is long out of it back at the 22 dollar mark.

 

[Benhuntn]

Cal has more debt than most legacies, the income is ave with others, growth is ave but my broker says it will be 80 by 12/07.

 

[Truckdriver]

Truck,

Using the 757-300 to FL has nothing to do with keeping RASM up but rather - it keeps CASM down. It is the lowest CASM airplane in our fleet, including the widebodies.

-Neal

By lowering CASM don't you get a higher RASM?? I think we are saying the same thing in different ways. I should have said CASM but I was sticking with RASM since that was what they were talking about earlier in the post. This thread is getting really boring now with CASM, RASM, shorting, and sell stops coming up!

 

[BluDevAv8r]

By lowering CASM don't you get a higher RASM?? I think we are saying the same thing in different ways. I should have said CASM but I was sticking with RASM since that was what they were talking about earlier in the post. This thread is getting really boring now with CASM, RASM, shorting, and sell stops coming up!

Boring to some perhaps but at least it is discussing factual information for once. And to answer your question, no, lowering CASM doesn't give you a higher RASM. Two different (but mildly related) concepts. RASM is the total revenue line (money generated from sales) divided by the total ASM's. CASM is the total expense line (costs) divided by total ASM's. They measure different things. Airlines like SWA tout their CASM (low cost structure) while airlines like CAL tout their RASM premium (ability to generate the highest revenue per seat mile.

-Neal

 

[Uniform Shop]

Cal has more debt than most legacies

I don't think CAL has more debt than most legacies but maybe I'm just reading the chart wrong.

CAL is about half the size of AA. Look at UAUA's liabilities. Holy crap!!

 

[acbarney]

the notion that a loss on a short is unlimited is incorrect if standard Stop-Loss orders are used, just like a regular "long" buy.

A long investor will buy Stock ABC at $20 and place a Sell Stop at say 10% loss point, or at $18. If it hits 18, he is out, done, no questions asked. Hopefully of course, it goes up.

A short seller will short Stock ABC, at say $20, and place a Buy Stop (reverse of Sell Short) at the 10% point, which is $22, or a 10% gain on the $20.

If it goes up, against his bet that it will decline, he is out when it hits 22 bucks, no questions asked.

If the stock continues to go up to $500 a share, he is long out of it back at the 22 dollar mark.

Unless it gaps your $22 stop loss, or there are not enough shares to buy back at $22....don't think it can happen??? keep doing what your doing, you'll find out.

Puts are a much safer way to short a stock.

 

[GogglesPisano]

CAL has net tangible assets of $10.5B and total liabilities of $10.3B. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=CAL&annual. Total revenue in '05 was $11.2B with a $1.5B profit.

AMR has net tangible assets of $29.5B and total liabilities of $30.9B.

UAUA has liabilities of $45B.

 

[satpak77]

Unless it gaps your $22 stop loss, or there are not enough shares to buy back at $22....don't think it can happen??? keep doing what your doing, you'll find out.

Puts are a much safer way to short a stock.

your points are credible however a gap will still trigger the stop order. It does not need to physically tick thru 22.00 dollars. It is "22 or more", at least with my broker.

Gaps are uncommon (but still occur) on larger cap issues and more common on smaller cap issues. A gap occurs because of sudden, congested, all-at-once buying or selling pressure that exists.

I have been investing in stocks and commodities for over 10 years now, and make more doing that than my day job, but thanks for the words of advice.

My day job provides a retirement plan and medical insurance, so yes, I am keeping it. Can't rely on the markets to pay the bills. If you make money from it, great, high-five yourself, but keep the day job.

Merry Christmas