CAL stock up 250% in last 12 months

[EWR_FO]

LCC costs will increase as has been seen at JBLU the last year. Legacy costs also increase although not as much on a percentage basis as a newcomer. Once you get past the 5-6 year mark however, those increasing costs are not as much as the first 5 years. Most LCC's have now passed that mark so costs shouldn't be a great concern although they are a factor. I think the LCC's to watch out for when they open up the Atlantic will be those in Europe. Ryan Air and Easy Jet would not be good to US Legacies that are now depending on Atlantic traffic to keep their margins up. I agree that the costs of U.S LCC's starting up a big international operation would be expensive, but I think they would jump into the game if the yields looked right. SWA basically has a 757 operation with ATA and JBLU would have a common fleet type with the 330. I don't think it will ever happen, but never say never in this industry.

The traffic in the Atlantic has always been about the pax in the front of the airplane and cargo. Trying to fly coach pax and make it up in volume has been proven time and again to be a failure (Laker, PE, etc). If it was so easy, they would be there by now. The Atlantic is "open" right now, any company can fly across any time they want.

 

[Ben Franklin]

But it only works until one of the LCC's puts service on that route.

...and how did the flights to FL out of EWR work out for JBLU?
:0

Sincerely,

B. Franklin

 

[Truckdriver]

...and how did the flights to FL out of EWR work out for JBLU?
:0

Sincerely,

B. Franklin

You mean how are the flights out of EWR to FL still working? Still have over 10 departures per day to 5 cities. I think they may have pulled a couple off because they wanted the airplanes for other stuff like HOU. The only reason we started doing it is because we had customers that would drive all the way to JFK just to ride on JetBlue to FL. They asked for service out of EWR and JetBlue answered. I don't think there are many CAL customers that would drive from Long Island to EWR just to get a flight to Florida. Says something about the product in my opinion. How is CAL doing with all those 757's trying to keep RASM up on those routes?? And Ben, why all the JetBlue bashing?

 

[Captain Overs]

JetBlue actually reduced flying on those routes because they were losing their arse to CAL.

 

[Ben Franklin]

put down the crackpipe when it feels personal, truck

And Ben, why all the JetBlue bashing?

Asking how JBLU did on the EWR to FL runs is bashing?

um, ok.


Sincerely,

B. Franklin

 

[Captain Overs]

CAL is a fine airline. Please disregard any perceived disparaging remarks I may have made in regards to CAL. Carry on.

 

[satpak77]

CAL is a fine airline. Please disregard any perceived disparaging remarks I may have made in regards to CAL. Carry on.

Wall Street sure thinks so. So much that CAL stock has pretty much outperformed SWA, FDX, and UPS since about 2003 now. No, if you go back to 1985 and compare CAL stock to FDX, it did not outperform, but the last few years of Wall Street activity and CAL is on top of everybody.

And that is including SWA and FDX

A major/legacy passenger carrier, not in Ch.11, hiring pilots, with a chance to fly heavies to Europe? Make Captain with less than 10 years on? I thought those didn't exist anymore.

Congrats again to CAL, good job guys. The new-hires have alot to smile about.

 

[FlyAuburn]

What does one have to say around here to get a question answered? Wait, I know - my airline is better than yours, makes more money than yours, and our FAs are hotter than yours. Geez.

Again, do new hires at CAL receive stock when they are hired? just curious.

 

[Deerkiller]

What does one have to say around here to get a question answered? Wait, I know - my airline is better than yours, makes more money than yours, and our FAs are hotter than yours. Geez.

Again, do new hires at CAL receive stock when they are hired? just curious.

Nope, no stock for the newhires.

 

[FlyAuburn]

Nope, no stock for the newhires.

Thanks. Too bad, they would have banked - over $280,000 for each new hire in one year. That's if they would have received a 6,000 share grant with a 1/3 split shortly after being hired. Of course, that would have been to good to be true and the stock wouldn't have gone up that high. I'd give my left tire lugnut to see our stock go up that high too.

 

[ACWild]

Employees can buy stock at a discounted rate.

 

[SEVEN]

I'm kicking myself. I saw it at $25 and watched it slowly reach $40 before I bought it. I think it still has the potential with it's current momentum to reach over $55 a share.

 

[Traderd]

CAL has had a very good run. But when the market opens, I'm going to buy Dec $50 puts for $5.60 each. The more it goes down from its current $44.97 price, the more those puts will be worth. I'm betting they will be worth $9-$10.00 by the end of the week. I will post within a half hour of when I sell the puts.

You seem to have a lot of company in seeing the downside of this stock.

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CAL $ 44.97 [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Continental Airlines [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Shares Short 20,849,432 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 3.8 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Short % of Float 23.19 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Shares Short - Prior 18,949,832 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Short % Increase / Decrease 0.02 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trading Volume - Today 5,204,700 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trading Volume - Average 5,475,000 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 95.06 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Total Shares - Float 89,910,000 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Total Shares - Outstanding 90,103,298 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]% Held by Insiders 0.21 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sector: Services Industry: Major Airlines [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SI Record Date2006-Nov [/FONT]

JetBlue is sitting at about the same short levels:

JBLU $ 14.74

Jetblue Airways Corporation

Shares Short 51,690,778
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 10.5
Short % of Float 35.57 %
Shares Short - Prior 54,635,276
Short % Increase / Decrease -5.39 %
Trading Volume - Today 2,671,139
Trading Volume - Average 4,909,939
Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 54.40 %
Total Shares - Float 145,310,000
Total Shares - Outstanding 175,712,310
% Held by Insiders 7.49 %
Services Industry: Regional Airlines
SI Record Date 2006-Oct

As a point of reference:

AMR 10.81%
LCC 7.50%
UAUA 6.02%
AAI 16.49%

Here is some real short interest:

OSTK (Overstock.com) currently with 78.91% of the float short.

Good luck with your trade.

 

[SEVEN]

You seem to have a lot of company in seeing the downside of this stock.

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]CAL $ 44.97 [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Continental Airlines [/FONT]

[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Shares Short 20,849,432 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 3.8 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Short % of Float 23.19 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Shares Short - Prior 18,949,832 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Short % Increase / Decrease 0.02 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trading Volume - Today 5,204,700 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trading Volume - Average 5,475,000 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 95.06 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Total Shares - Float 89,910,000 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Total Shares - Outstanding 90,103,298 [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]% Held by Insiders 0.21 %[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Sector: Services Industry: Major Airlines [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]SI Record Date2006-Nov [/FONT]

JetBlue is sitting at about the same short levels:

JBLU $ 14.74

Jetblue Airways Corporation

Shares Short 51,690,778
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 10.5
Short % of Float 35.57 %
Shares Short - Prior 54,635,276
Short % Increase / Decrease -5.39 %
Trading Volume - Today 2,671,139
Trading Volume - Average 4,909,939
Trading Volume Vs. Avg. 54.40 %
Total Shares - Float 145,310,000
Total Shares - Outstanding 175,712,310
% Held by Insiders 7.49 %
Services Industry: Regional Airlines
SI Record Date 2006-Oct

As a point of reference:

AMR 10.81%
LCC 7.50%
UAUA 6.02%
AAI 16.49%

Here is some real short interest:

OSTK (Overstock.com) currently with 78.91% of the float short.

Good luck with your trade.

Thanks. If you watch it closely you can make money. This is a stock as with all airline stocks you don't want to buy and not watch it closely. But you can make money for sure with CAL right now.

 

[bizicmo]

What does it mean to short the stock? Just trying to learn more about the stock market.

 

[BluDevAv8r]

How is CAL doing with all those 757's trying to keep RASM up on those routes?? And Ben, why all the JetBlue bashing?

Truck,

Using the 757-300 to FL has nothing to do with keeping RASM up but rather - it keeps CASM down. It is the lowest CASM airplane in our fleet, including the widebodies.

-Neal

 

[tomgoodman]

Shorting is dangerous

What does it mean to short the stock? Just trying to learn more about the stock market.

It means to sell stocks you don't yet own, hoping to buy them at a lower price before you must deliver them to the buyer. If the stock price drops during this brief period, you pocket the difference. But if the stock zooms, you must buy (cover your short position) AT ANY PRICE! This is called a "short squeeze", and your losses are potentially unlimited.

A classic story involved Cornelius Vanderbilt. Speculators shorted stock in one of his railroads, having already bribed crooked legislators to deny him a critical route award. Sure enough, the stock fell. But the Commodore quickly had his agents buy up virtually all of the shares, so when the speculators tried to "cover their shorts", Vanderbilt dictated the price, and squeezed them like a grape.

 

[satpak77]

the notion that a loss on a short is unlimited is incorrect if standard Stop-Loss orders are used, just like a regular "long" buy.

A long investor will buy Stock ABC at $20 and place a Sell Stop at say 10% loss point, or at $18. If it hits 18, he is out, done, no questions asked. Hopefully of course, it goes up.

A short seller will short Stock ABC, at say $20, and place a Buy Stop (reverse of Sell Short) at the 10% point, which is $22, or a 10% gain on the $20.

If it goes up, against his bet that it will decline, he is out when it hits 22 bucks, no questions asked.

If the stock continues to go up to $500 a share, he is long out of it back at the 22 dollar mark.

 

[Benhuntn]

Cal has more debt than most legacies, the income is ave with others, growth is ave but my broker says it will be 80 by 12/07.

 

[Truckdriver]

Truck,

Using the 757-300 to FL has nothing to do with keeping RASM up but rather - it keeps CASM down. It is the lowest CASM airplane in our fleet, including the widebodies.

-Neal

By lowering CASM don't you get a higher RASM?? I think we are saying the same thing in different ways. I should have said CASM but I was sticking with RASM since that was what they were talking about earlier in the post. This thread is getting really boring now with CASM, RASM, shorting, and sell stops coming up!