CAL stock up 250% in last 12 months

[EWR_FO]

Sure it is. But it only works until one of the LCC's puts service on that route. At that point the RASM at CAL drops when they price match and they lose money. The RASM on routes with LCC competition is probably very low. The problem CAL has is there aren't many domestic routes these days without LCC competition. So they get their money from international flights which works great until they open up the skies and LCC's head across the pond.

The costs of LCC's can do nothing but increase as the companies age. It also appears that the LCC's are running out of places to fly as the competition heats up. I agree, the RASM is probably very low on competing routes, but as long as it is positive they will continue to fly it.

I would think it would be prohibitively expensive for a LCC to start an international operation from scratch, but that is just my opinion.

 

[Andy Neill]

CAL has had a very good run. But when the market opens, I'm going to buy Dec $50 puts for $5.60 each. The more it goes down from its current $44.97 price, the more those puts will be worth. I'm betting they will be worth $9-$10.00 by the end of the week. I will post within a half hour of when I sell the puts.

 

[BID]

Not everyone likes to shop at Wal Mart.

 

[Truckdriver]

Not everyone likes to shop at Wal Mart.

Not everyone likes it, but everyone does it. Not everyone likes SWA either, but they flew more passengers than any airline has ever flown in a one month period last month.

 

[Truckdriver]

The costs of LCC's can do nothing but increase as the companies age. It also appears that the LCC's are running out of places to fly as the competition heats up. I agree, the RASM is probably very low on competing routes, but as long as it is positive they will continue to fly it.

I would think it would be prohibitively expensive for a LCC to start an international operation from scratch, but that is just my opinion.

LCC costs will increase as has been seen at JBLU the last year. Legacy costs also increase although not as much on a percentage basis as a newcomer. Once you get past the 5-6 year mark however, those increasing costs are not as much as the first 5 years. Most LCC's have now passed that mark so costs shouldn't be a great concern although they are a factor. I think the LCC's to watch out for when they open up the Atlantic will be those in Europe. Ryan Air and Easy Jet would not be good to US Legacies that are now depending on Atlantic traffic to keep their margins up. I agree that the costs of U.S LCC's starting up a big international operation would be expensive, but I think they would jump into the game if the yields looked right. SWA basically has a 757 operation with ATA and JBLU would have a common fleet type with the 330. I don't think it will ever happen, but never say never in this industry.

 

[EWR_FO]

LCC costs will increase as has been seen at JBLU the last year. Legacy costs also increase although not as much on a percentage basis as a newcomer. Once you get past the 5-6 year mark however, those increasing costs are not as much as the first 5 years. Most LCC's have now passed that mark so costs shouldn't be a great concern although they are a factor. I think the LCC's to watch out for when they open up the Atlantic will be those in Europe. Ryan Air and Easy Jet would not be good to US Legacies that are now depending on Atlantic traffic to keep their margins up. I agree that the costs of U.S LCC's starting up a big international operation would be expensive, but I think they would jump into the game if the yields looked right. SWA basically has a 757 operation with ATA and JBLU would have a common fleet type with the 330. I don't think it will ever happen, but never say never in this industry.

The traffic in the Atlantic has always been about the pax in the front of the airplane and cargo. Trying to fly coach pax and make it up in volume has been proven time and again to be a failure (Laker, PE, etc). If it was so easy, they would be there by now. The Atlantic is "open" right now, any company can fly across any time they want.

 

[Ben Franklin]

But it only works until one of the LCC's puts service on that route.

...and how did the flights to FL out of EWR work out for JBLU?
:0

Sincerely,

B. Franklin

 

[Truckdriver]

...and how did the flights to FL out of EWR work out for JBLU?
:0

Sincerely,

B. Franklin

You mean how are the flights out of EWR to FL still working? Still have over 10 departures per day to 5 cities. I think they may have pulled a couple off because they wanted the airplanes for other stuff like HOU. The only reason we started doing it is because we had customers that would drive all the way to JFK just to ride on JetBlue to FL. They asked for service out of EWR and JetBlue answered. I don't think there are many CAL customers that would drive from Long Island to EWR just to get a flight to Florida. Says something about the product in my opinion. How is CAL doing with all those 757's trying to keep RASM up on those routes?? And Ben, why all the JetBlue bashing?

 

[Captain Overs]

JetBlue actually reduced flying on those routes because they were losing their arse to CAL.

 

[Ben Franklin]

put down the crackpipe when it feels personal, truck

And Ben, why all the JetBlue bashing?

Asking how JBLU did on the EWR to FL runs is bashing?

um, ok.


Sincerely,

B. Franklin

 

[Captain Overs]

CAL is a fine airline. Please disregard any perceived disparaging remarks I may have made in regards to CAL. Carry on.

 

[satpak77]

CAL is a fine airline. Please disregard any perceived disparaging remarks I may have made in regards to CAL. Carry on.

Wall Street sure thinks so. So much that CAL stock has pretty much outperformed SWA, FDX, and UPS since about 2003 now. No, if you go back to 1985 and compare CAL stock to FDX, it did not outperform, but the last few years of Wall Street activity and CAL is on top of everybody.

And that is including SWA and FDX

A major/legacy passenger carrier, not in Ch.11, hiring pilots, with a chance to fly heavies to Europe? Make Captain with less than 10 years on? I thought those didn't exist anymore.

Congrats again to CAL, good job guys. The new-hires have alot to smile about.

 

[FlyAuburn]

What does one have to say around here to get a question answered? Wait, I know - my airline is better than yours, makes more money than yours, and our FAs are hotter than yours. Geez.

Again, do new hires at CAL receive stock when they are hired? just curious.

 

[Deerkiller]

What does one have to say around here to get a question answered? Wait, I know - my airline is better than yours, makes more money than yours, and our FAs are hotter than yours. Geez.

Again, do new hires at CAL receive stock when they are hired? just curious.

Nope, no stock for the newhires.

 

[FlyAuburn]

Nope, no stock for the newhires.

Thanks. Too bad, they would have banked - over $280,000 for each new hire in one year. That's if they would have received a 6,000 share grant with a 1/3 split shortly after being hired. Of course, that would have been to good to be true and the stock wouldn't have gone up that high. I'd give my left tire lugnut to see our stock go up that high too.