CAL rumors......

[ATRCA]

they send instructors back to the line every summer if i am not mistaken, so i really don't think that means anything at all. the retirement rumors are interesting however. who knows, i am interested to see the "language" used in the quarterly earnings report tomorrow. hopefully no mention of slower growth for 2010!

You're right about the IP summer thing but if there was any serious consideration to recalls I don't think this will happen. Who knows :/

 

[Flopgut]

If schoolhouse knobs are being sent back to the line then thats then end of the rumor.

Skywdriver has it correct IMHO. Instructors go to the line every summer. I think we can keep batting around this rumor.

200 retirees would definitly have a bearing on recalls. It's no rumor that those guys are on a hair trigger anyway. And if enough start the paper work, there will be a run.

My prediction: This will be the year CAL gets all the bad press for cancellations. Last weeks wx not only denuded the all the reserve coverage in every base, scheduling went all the way to the limit on irregular ops. Basically, they put everybody on reserve. Lineholders were reassigned 2 and 3 times and the system recovery time was abnormally slow. The had FAs; they didn't have pilots. It's not even May yet.

One other point: Several key schedulers that knew how to make it work are gone now. The replacements are clueless, arrogant and can't make this place run like years past.

 

[COpilot]

Maybe with two years since age 60 extension coming up in December we'll see some of the people who stayed say that's enough?

Other news; I guess it's out you B737 guys are going to to get your feet wet, and do some Hula dancing this coming fall.

 

[Captain X]

From a Local Council Meeting

LC Meeting yesterday and this is what was said in reference to recalls:

The most persistent rumor is recalls beginning sometime around September of 2009. That was from the LC Chair.

On the other hand, an MEC officer stated that there will be a June BOD meeting with block hour forecasts discussed which will directly affect staffing.

That jives with the next contractually required system bid.

He stated that there has been talk from various company officers of anything from a 5% DECREASE in block hours to a 5-7% INCREASE in block hours.

There also was a total melt-down in Crew Scheduling this past weekend due to weather and the airline was not able to recover the operation as quickly as in the past. Reminiscent of a missed CRAF opportunity in past years due to lack of crews with pilots on furlough.

So essentially, no one really knows and the more things change, the more they stay the same.

 

[Flopgut]

Potential retirees under the A plan are beggining to get the message that they aren't the single most important thing the pilot group is dealing with. Past retirees had the luxury of being able to call weekly and have R & I play with their lump sum numbers and make them feel secure and special. That's not the case anymore. We're frying bigger fish. We already gave them enough. They are rolling the dice if they stay and as the A plan fades away they're on their own.

 

[skywdriver]

hopefully there will be a good chunk of retirements. i wish those that say they would retire if they could would realize that 1 or 2 more years of work just isn't going to make much difference in quality of life for retirement. you can't make up for bad decisions or bad luck in 2 years.

 

[Paul R. Smith]

He stated that there has been talk from various company officers of anything from a 5% DECREASE in block hours to a 5-7% INCREASE in block hours.

I see a decrease in block hours. Further reductions will be met with fanfare from the shareholders since it is in line with what everyone else is doing. Bonus galore!!!

 

[skywdriver]

I see a decrease in block hours. Further reductions will be met with fanfare from the shareholders since it is in line with what everyone else is doing. Bonus galore!!!

hard to say, 2010 is still a bit of time away. its hard to say how the consumer is going to react once we find the bottom of the economy. i don't see a quick and strong rebound, but watching the economy freefall having no idea when it will end and seeing better times ahead are certainly very different consumption scenarios. i think the summer months will probably tell all.

 

[densoo]

The rumor is based partly on the possibility of the lump sum option going away. When Larry said "the lump sum is not a contractual obligation" at a meeting a couple of months back, it turned some heads. Something happens with the gatt/corporate rate this fall that may precipitate up to 300 retirements in mid-winter. This may drive a recall this fall--after the summer crush is over. That is my hope anyway.

 

[nimtz]

My prediction: This will be the year CAL gets all the bad press for cancellations. Last weeks wx not only denuded the all the reserve coverage in every base, scheduling went all the way to the limit on irregular ops. Basically, they put everybody on reserve. Lineholders were reassigned 2 and 3 times and the system recovery time was abnormally slow. The had FAs; they didn't have pilots. It's not even May yet.

One other point: Several key schedulers that knew how to make it work are gone now. The replacements are clueless, arrogant and can't make this place run like years past.

I hope you are right, but I doubt it. CAL management deserves to burn for such pathetic staffing. Any real pilot group would of caused an implosion a long time ago. Yet what do we always here around here from the veterans: "It's been this way since Lorenzo!" So apparently that makes it all right.

Unfortunately I've come to respect the stupidity of the saviors in keeping this circus running when it is on the brink of folding. They will emerge due to a combination of:
1) Greed/Stupidity
2) Belief that the schedule must be maintained

And for the record I'd love to paint the scab brush bold, but it is an entire seniority list problem. There are even saviors in the ranks of guys within 100 numbers of a furlough themselves. CAL will squeak by just as it always does. I see no reason to have faith in this group's ability not to grasp the 1.5X pay ring yet again.

 

[skywdriver]

I see a decrease in block hours. Further reductions will be met with fanfare from the shareholders since it is in line with what everyone else is doing. Bonus galore!!!

Not that things won't change a million times, but the 2010 fleet plan forecast still has a net gain of 17 airplanes in it, 2 777's. Given Boeing's total screw job on the 787, I am sure that before reducing block hours they would defer the orders with little trouble from Boeing. Good news that they are still planning on taking the airplanes, but of course that could change. Anyone know how many pilots they staff the 777's to? I heard about 40 per airplane.

 

[EWR_FO]

Anyone know how many pilots they staff the 777's to? I heard about 40 per airplane.

It's about half that, there are just over 400 pilots staffed for twenty airplanes

 

[Ex737Driver]

It's about half that, there are just over 400 pilots staffed for twenty airplanes

From bid 0109, it's a little more than 28 per aircraft.

 

[EWR_FO]

From bid 0109, it's a little more than 28 per aircraft.

That includes all the training instructors (that can hold it) who are double bid. The monthly staffing shows how many pilots they actually plan on using.

 

[skywdriver]

thanks for the info guys, i would think the airplanes that are planned delivery in 2010, if they actually take them on time, would provide enough vacancies for the recalls, hoping at least.

 

[Hutchman]

thanks for the info guys, i would think the airplanes that are planned delivery in 2010, if they actually take them on time, would provide enough vacancies for the recalls, hoping at least.

Don't forget about the -300's and -500's that are being parked.

 

[skywdriver]

yeah, but that was already taken into consideration for staffing levels in 2009 if I am not mistaken. they aren't planning at this time to park any more 737's in 2010

 

[Kugelblitz]

As long as CAL rumors don't include United......

 

[Yuppyguppy]

nice one

 

[IAHERJ]

I think we are going to have a system bid next week. Should give us all some sort of guidance as to this Fall's staffing numbers etc.