Just my opinion...
I think August bid may have recalls for several reasons:
1-On Dec 13, 2009, the seniors start turning 62, therefore finally eligible for SS and Medicare. Some benefits many were holding out for.
2-After the recent passing of an over 60 pilot. It was realized by many that if you are active at CAL and you 'fly west' even at home, your lump sum is only paid at 50% to your spouse only, not to surviving children etc. Some of the good ones will think about their families and retire.
3-New aircraft deliveries that have higher staffing requirements.
Of course this is based on status quo of the economy, but one can't predict the future.
1) and 2) are optimistic scenarios. Plenty of those guys were just milking the 62 excuse to justify 65 support. They will stay all the way to 65 and some will still complain then. Don't forget about our illustrious Post 60 pre 2006 flight instructors who don't understand why we think it's BS they can fly a line trip.
As for 3) you would think, but since Larry put all his eggs in the 787 basket that's not a guarantee either. It all comes down to the biz plan for '10 which has been finalized yet. Europe is going to be weaker for longer then the US, so I worry that we might pull out/slash frequencies over the next year. And I don't doubt for a second that they will hesitate to park more 737-500's now that they think the Q400 is an adequate replacement.:erm:
Of course if the union would just hurry up and sign off scope for the Star Alliance JV flying I'm sure the company would recall everyone. So it's the idiots union's fault for the furloughs...
I am not trying to get off topic here but for the life of me I cannot understand that level of selfishness. But what's new right? As long as they get theirs!
Apparently this guy can...
" British Airways.....chief executive declared.. there are "absolutely no signs of recovery" in the industry.
"I'm 30 years in this business and I've never seen anything like this. This is by far the biggest crisis the industry has ever faced.."
thanks for the info. it is my understanding that in order to lock in the current rate used to calculate the lump sum, that the paperwork has to be in by November (when the rate will change). that is what i have been told, but i don't really have a way to verify that info. if that is the case, then it wouldn't be a surprise that more paperwork hasn't already come in. who knows, it all boils down to this - neither the company nor the union provides us with any useful information at all.
Yeah I don't know about the rate change dates, etc. and I hope that some of these factors do have an effect. But I'm pretty sure that they still have to give 6 months notice to keep their bridge medical.
How's everybody doing out there with finding work in the meantime. I only know of one guy that got a flying job out of my initial class of 16.
I buy it. There really is no one factor suggesting any recovery is near. All the airlines do anymore is cut capacity, merge and downsize fleets, furlough and over work remaining crews. No attrition to retirement, as legacy carriers farm out more flying. The younger pilot group sees growth at their regionals but with no movement above hence no replacement of legacy senior pilots. The future will hold far less pilots period, as we bring in larger fleet types of the 70-120 seat range and reduce frequency and overlap with mergers. The ball is dark and murky. The best we can hope for is a total system revamp comprised of EMB-190 and CRJ-1000 type fleets with positions that pay $80,000 after 15 years of service.