CAL recalls when???

[skywdriver]

Yeah I don't know about the rate change dates, etc. and I hope that some of these factors do have an effect. But I'm pretty sure that they still have to give 6 months notice to keep their bridge medical.

How's everybody doing out there with finding work in the meantime. I only know of one guy that got a flying job out of my initial class of 16.

i am still not working. i have had what i thought was a pretty good shot at a couple of flying jobs, but nothing has come through. regarding the notice, i was told that the rate gets locked in based on when the paperwork gets put it, not when the actual retirement happens. so, guys could throw it in end of October, and still give their 6 month notice. i wouldn't bet my life on that fact to be true, but that was what i was told. i haven't heard from any furloughees that got flying jobs. most from my class were reserve guys, so they are flying there.

 

[skywdriver]

I buy it. There really is no one factor suggesting any recovery is near. All the airlines do anymore is cut capacity, merge and downsize fleets, furlough and over work remaining crews. No attrition to retirement, as legacy carriers farm out more flying. The younger pilot group sees growth at their regionals but with no movement above hence no replacement of legacy senior pilots. The future will hold far less pilots period, as we bring in larger fleet types of the 70-120 seat range and reduce frequency and overlap with mergers. The ball is dark and murky. The best we can hope for is a total system revamp comprised of EMB-190 and CRJ-1000 type fleets with positions that pay $80,000 after 15 years of service.

Wow, doom and gloom at its best. I agree, the industry is seeing the worst economy since the great depression, as are all of the other industries that are affected by economic cycles. Sure the airlines cut capacity when there is too much in the system.

I don't think overall that much more flying is being given out to the regionals. There will more than likely be no more scope relief anywhere unless it happens through bankruptcy - and if i were an executive and actually cared about the company i ran, i would try to avoid bankruptcy out of fear that my company would never make it out. Times are different now than they were when UAL, NWA, and DAL went in to restructure. The administration is different. I think the next big airline to declare bankruptcy will be liquidating and not restructuring. So, maybe those bigger regional airplanes will be flown under mainline seniority lists, but not by the regionals. Everyone has seen the effects of scope relief. In addition, there isn't enough room in the sky for more little airplanes. Yeah, works fine when everyone is cutting capacity, but when demand picks back up and capacity follows, I wouldn't be surprised to see more slot regulation - which will lead to bigger airplanes flying less slots.

The future will hold as many pilots as there is demand for air travel. In general, air travel demands will continue to grow, although the rate will depend on economic recovery.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Plus you now have to worry about your regional carrier buying you in bankruptcy.

 

[lookin4better]

all back by next summer

 

[Whine Lover]

"....if i were an executive and actually cared about the company i ran..."

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha..... That's funny.

But, as Gumby said to Pokey just before take-off:

" Okay Pokey, no more horsing around. This is serious Sh!t ! "


YKMKR

 

[list2002]

all back by next summer

I sure hope so. But am hearing more around 2011, even WITH the rumored lump sum retirements. These posts are generally more positive than what I've been hearing in the cockpit, so thanks.

 

[Ex737Driver]

Ok. Now for some optimism. AUG bid will have recalls and possibly the long awaited LAX and S FL base. Justifications are as follows;

1) New flying for LAX - LAX-SAL and LAX-HAV with more to come with the base and some expansion. Has been delayed with the delay of the 787 program.

2) CAL ended 2008 with 350 airframes and a reduction of 11% system-wide capacity. We cut some 100+ CA seats throughout the system and furloughed 147 pilots. In 2009 we will have parked all 737-300's by the end of the year as well as 5 737-500's for a fleet reduction of 28 aircraft. Offsetting some of that loss is the addition of 1 737-800 and 13 737-900ER's bringing the total fleet count by the end of 2009 to 336.

3) 2010 has an aircraft delivery schedule of 2 777-200's in the first quarter, 4 757-300's in the second and third quarters, and 7 737-800's and 4 737-900ER's spread-out through 2010. This will bring our fleet total to 353 or 3 more aircraft than we had at the end of 2008.

4) Using 12 pilots per aircraft, which is simplistic, we will need 204 pilots to man these airframes. The 204 does not take into account retirements, medical out/death, and job loss. Using numbers from 2009, which was our worst year for retirements, you can reasonably expect a need for 250-275 pilots on the AUG bid or 250-275 split between the AUG 2009 and JAN 2010 bid.

 

[WolfManPack]

Ok. Now for some optimism. AUG bid will have recalls and possibly the long awaited LAX and S FL base. Justifications are as follows;

1) New flying for LAX - LAX-SAL and LAX-HAV with more to come with the base and some expansion. Has been delayed with the delay of the 787 program.

2) CAL ended 2008 with 350 airframes and a reduction of 11% system-wide capacity. We cut some 100+ CA seats throughout the system and furloughed 147 pilots. In 2009 we will have parked all 737-300's by the end of the year as well as 5 737-500's for a fleet reduction of 28 aircraft. Offsetting some of that loss is the addition of 1 737-800 and 13 737-900ER's bringing the total fleet count by the end of 2009 to 336.

3) 2010 has an aircraft delivery schedule of 2 777-200's in the first quarter, 4 757-300's in the second and third quarters, and 7 737-800's and 4 737-900ER's spread-out through 2010. This will bring our fleet total to 353 or 3 more aircraft than we had at the end of 2008.

4) Using 12 pilots per aircraft, which is simplistic, we will need 204 pilots to man these airframes. The 204 does not take into account retirements, medical out/death, and job loss. Using numbers from 2009, which was our worst year for retirements, you can reasonably expect a need for 250-275 pilots on the AUG bid or 250-275 split between the AUG 2009 and JAN 2010 bid.

I would love for this to pan out the way you describe. Is this logical thinking on your part or do you have a source?

Thanks!

 

[jonjuan]

Also, what's the realistic timeline for the new contract and subsequent increased staffing levels?

 

[DontFeedTheBear]

Yeah I don't know about the rate change dates, etc. and I hope that some of these factors do have an effect. But I'm pretty sure that they still have to give 6 months notice to keep their bridge medical.

Do they still need to give six months notice if they are going to be 62, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't bridge medical from 60 to 62?

 

[WolfManPack]

Do they still need to give six months notice if they are going to be 62, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't bridge medical from 60 to 62?

I think you're correct about this but I also believe that the majority of over 60 pilots that are cotemplating retirement / filed their papers are not going to be over age 62 when they actually retire.

Somebody told me that the total number of over 60 pilots at the company is a lot lower than people think at this point. Of course not all the pilots are going to elect to retire prior to 65 anyway.

 

[skywdriver]

Ok. Now for some optimism. AUG bid will have recalls and possibly the long awaited LAX and S FL base. Justifications are as follows;

1) New flying for LAX - LAX-SAL and LAX-HAV with more to come with the base and some expansion. Has been delayed with the delay of the 787 program.

2) CAL ended 2008 with 350 airframes and a reduction of 11% system-wide capacity. We cut some 100+ CA seats throughout the system and furloughed 147 pilots. In 2009 we will have parked all 737-300's by the end of the year as well as 5 737-500's for a fleet reduction of 28 aircraft. Offsetting some of that loss is the addition of 1 737-800 and 13 737-900ER's bringing the total fleet count by the end of 2009 to 336.

3) 2010 has an aircraft delivery schedule of 2 777-200's in the first quarter, 4 757-300's in the second and third quarters, and 7 737-800's and 4 737-900ER's spread-out through 2010. This will bring our fleet total to 353 or 3 more aircraft than we had at the end of 2008.

4) Using 12 pilots per aircraft, which is simplistic, we will need 204 pilots to man these airframes. The 204 does not take into account retirements, medical out/death, and job loss. Using numbers from 2009, which was our worst year for retirements, you can reasonably expect a need for 250-275 pilots on the AUG bid or 250-275 split between the AUG 2009 and JAN 2010 bid.

I too would love to see a need for that many pilots, but the problem with that logic in my opinion is as follows - we are only going to be three airplanes fatter end of 2010 (assuming we take delivery of all of those as we are currently planning) than we were AFTER they furloughed all of us. So, as far as I can tell, they are only going to need to staff 3 additional airplanes over what they had after we were furloughed. Yeah, the 777 will require more heads, and there will have been some retirements since 2008, but the question is, will that be enough to get all of the 147 back? The COLAs will also have the option of returning this spring.

 

[list2002]

In this economy cash is king, I don't see CAL spending the money needed to open a new base right now.

 

[Paul R. Smith]

12 pilots per airframe?

Maybe at Mesa but this is CAL where the staffing model is "understaff for as long as we can"



I realize a 777 takes a little more meat.

 

[jmreii]

I buy it. There really is no one factor suggesting any recovery is near. All the airlines do anymore is cut capacity, merge and downsize fleets, furlough and over work remaining crews. No attrition to retirement, as legacy carriers farm out more flying. The younger pilot group sees growth at their regionals but with no movement above hence no replacement of legacy senior pilots. The future will hold far less pilots period, as we bring in larger fleet types of the 70-120 seat range and reduce frequency and overlap with mergers. The ball is dark and murky. The best we can hope for is a total system revamp comprised of EMB-190 and CRJ-1000 type fleets with positions that pay $80,000 after 15 years of service.

Airlines have and always been part of the discretionary pie for consumers, notihng has changed since the 1970's. Air tarvel will be the last item on that list to recover form a economic downturn, it happens to be a long list this time around. Better pack a lunch and a sweater because you are going to need them.