CAL recalls when???

[skywdriver]

i know this would probably be a better post in the CAL ALPA forum, but i don't post on there, so just curious what you guys are thinking. I am hoping for 2010, planning on 2011. Any word out there?

 

[Paul R. Smith]

Well, CAL needs more pilots in the summer and they didn't bring them back for this summer. CAL claims to be staffed better than they have been in a while. (whatever!!)
Another bid supposedly in August...keep your fingers crossed but don't get your hopes up.

Sorry.

 

[CapnVegetto]

I'm still hearing fall, although it's quieter than it's been. If they get through the summer then they can surely get through the fall. They damn sure need them back, but are simply hostages.

 

[DontFeedTheBear]

Just my opinion...

I think August bid may have recalls for several reasons:

1-On Dec 13, 2009, the seniors start turning 62, therefore finally eligible for SS and Medicare. Some benefits many were holding out for.

2-After the recent passing of an over 60 pilot. It was realized by many that if you are active at CAL and you 'fly west' even at home, your lump sum is only paid at 50% to your spouse only, not to surviving children etc. Some of the good ones will think about their families and retire.

3-New aircraft deliveries that have higher staffing requirements.

Of course this is based on status quo of the economy, but one can't predict the future.

Yogi

 

[Whine Lover]

Apparently this guy can...

" British Airways.....chief executive declared.. there are "absolutely no signs of recovery" in the industry.

"I'm 30 years in this business and I've never seen anything like this. This is by far the biggest crisis the industry has ever faced.."


YKW

 

[nimtz]

Just my opinion...

I think August bid may have recalls for several reasons:

1-On Dec 13, 2009, the seniors start turning 62, therefore finally eligible for SS and Medicare. Some benefits many were holding out for.

2-After the recent passing of an over 60 pilot. It was realized by many that if you are active at CAL and you 'fly west' even at home, your lump sum is only paid at 50% to your spouse only, not to surviving children etc. Some of the good ones will think about their families and retire.

3-New aircraft deliveries that have higher staffing requirements.

Of course this is based on status quo of the economy, but one can't predict the future.

Yogi

1) and 2) are optimistic scenarios. Plenty of those guys were just milking the 62 excuse to justify 65 support. They will stay all the way to 65 and some will still complain then. Don't forget about our illustrious Post 60 pre 2006 flight instructors who don't understand why we think it's BS they can fly a line trip.

As for 3) you would think, but since Larry put all his eggs in the 787 basket that's not a guarantee either. It all comes down to the biz plan for '10 which has been finalized yet. Europe is going to be weaker for longer then the US, so I worry that we might pull out/slash frequencies over the next year. And I don't doubt for a second that they will hesitate to park more 737-500's now that they think the Q400 is an adequate replacement.:erm:

Of course if the union would just hurry up and sign off scope for the Star Alliance JV flying I'm sure the company would recall everyone. So it's the idiots union's fault for the furloughs...

 

[skywdriver]

1) and 2) are optimistic scenarios. Plenty of those guys were just milking the 62 excuse to justify 65 support. They will stay all the way to 65 and some will still complain then. Don't forget about our illustrious Post 60 pre 2006 flight instructors who don't understand why we think it's BS they can fly a line trip.

As for 3) you would think, but since Larry put all his eggs in the 787 basket that's not a guarantee either. It all comes down to the biz plan for '10 which has been finalized yet. Europe is going to be weaker for longer then the US, so I worry that we might pull out/slash frequencies over the next year. And I don't doubt for a second that they will hesitate to park more 737-500's now that they think the Q400 is an adequate replacement.:erm:

Of course if the union would just hurry up and sign off scope for the Star Alliance JV flying I'm sure the company would recall everyone. So it's the idiots union's fault for the furloughs...

Those guys didn't need to use 62 as an excuse to gain support for the rule change. A majority was against it, and it was still pushed at the national level. Pathetic in my opinion, but honestly we weren't going to keep that one from happening. The writing on the wall was already there when the Europeans allowed it.

Now, on to the purpose of this post. I think one of the above posts made some good points regarding potential retirement incentives. In addition to the points that he made, I am pretty sure that in November the interest rate change used to calculate the lump sum will reduce the payments by an average of about $100,000 per person. Now, to the guys that really are planning on flying until 65, i doubt any of this will make that much of a difference. However, every year we are adding about 200 guys to the over 60 bunch (at least for the next 6-8 years). I am certainly hoping that at least some of these guys are ready to call it quits, especially after they turn 62.

As far as aircraft deliveries go, will be interesting to see what the next earnings report has regarding fleet for 2010. I am thinking that our recall will depend more on retirements than growth in 2010.

 

[WolfManPack]

Rumors

I am hearing that only about 30 guys, as of a couple of weeks ago, have put in for retirement through the end of the year so far. That is a much smaller number of retirements than expected given the above mentioned reasons possibilities.

According to my sources, since the retirees are required to give a 6 month notice (paperwork) of intent to retire to the company in order to retain the bridge medical benefits, the company believes that if there are not any more retirement notices submitted by the end of this month, there likely will not be many more thereafter.

Like some of you, I cannot imagine anyone in their right (and unselfish) mind that learned of the inabilityto have their retirement pension passed on to there families at the full amount, would not go ahead and retire based soley on this known negative impact on their families. However, I did fly with several guys before I got furloughed that didn't seem to mind taking chances with their pensions just to be able to fly to 65.

I am not trying to get off topic here but for the life of me I cannot understand that level of selfishness. But what's new right? As long as they get theirs!

 

[skywdriver]

thanks for the info. it is my understanding that in order to lock in the current rate used to calculate the lump sum, that the paperwork has to be in by November (when the rate will change). that is what i have been told, but i don't really have a way to verify that info. if that is the case, then it wouldn't be a surprise that more paperwork hasn't already come in. who knows, it all boils down to this - neither the company nor the union provides us with any useful information at all.

 

[100/hour/5y]

CAL... SUCKS
My friends on RES are doing double duty and getting days rolled!
If you are a line holder on the 756 or 737 in EWR don't call in sick greater than 8hrs and 30 mins, that way SCH can't double duty the RES!
S/F

 

[BID]

FWIW, a captain I just flew with has a neighbor in Houston who is involved with crew planning. He told me they are a little worried they will see high retirement numbers by November. I know, sounds familiar?

I know a new contract with work rules, and no PBS would bring you guys back in a heart beat.

 

[nimtz]

I am not trying to get off topic here but for the life of me I cannot understand that level of selfishness. But what's new right? As long as they get theirs!

The bottom line for that type, they have no life outside of flying Boeings for CAL. Sorry but that's about every level of pathetic you can achieve in life. It will be interesting in the years ahead interest rates creep up to see if these guys start to see a life beyond jets.

 

[BrickTop]

Apparently this guy can...

" British Airways.....chief executive declared.. there are "absolutely no signs of recovery" in the industry.

"I'm 30 years in this business and I've never seen anything like this. This is by far the biggest crisis the industry has ever faced.."


YKW

I buy it. There really is no one factor suggesting any recovery is near. All the airlines do anymore is cut capacity, merge and downsize fleets, furlough and over work remaining crews. No attrition to retirement, as legacy carriers farm out more flying. The younger pilot group sees growth at their regionals but with no movement above hence no replacement of legacy senior pilots. The future will hold far less pilots period, as we bring in larger fleet types of the 70-120 seat range and reduce frequency and overlap with mergers. The ball is dark and murky. The best we can hope for is a total system revamp comprised of EMB-190 and CRJ-1000 type fleets with positions that pay $80,000 after 15 years of service.

 

[ACWild]

Ten to eleven days off in the 756 for July. And that's what those of us who are around the fifty percent bidding seniority are getting. We'll need more than the 147 to end this bs.

 

[WolfManPack]

thanks for the info. it is my understanding that in order to lock in the current rate used to calculate the lump sum, that the paperwork has to be in by November (when the rate will change). that is what i have been told, but i don't really have a way to verify that info. if that is the case, then it wouldn't be a surprise that more paperwork hasn't already come in. who knows, it all boils down to this - neither the company nor the union provides us with any useful information at all.

Yeah I don't know about the rate change dates, etc. and I hope that some of these factors do have an effect. But I'm pretty sure that they still have to give 6 months notice to keep their bridge medical.

How's everybody doing out there with finding work in the meantime. I only know of one guy that got a flying job out of my initial class of 16.

 

[skywdriver]

Yeah I don't know about the rate change dates, etc. and I hope that some of these factors do have an effect. But I'm pretty sure that they still have to give 6 months notice to keep their bridge medical.

How's everybody doing out there with finding work in the meantime. I only know of one guy that got a flying job out of my initial class of 16.

i am still not working. i have had what i thought was a pretty good shot at a couple of flying jobs, but nothing has come through. regarding the notice, i was told that the rate gets locked in based on when the paperwork gets put it, not when the actual retirement happens. so, guys could throw it in end of October, and still give their 6 month notice. i wouldn't bet my life on that fact to be true, but that was what i was told. i haven't heard from any furloughees that got flying jobs. most from my class were reserve guys, so they are flying there.

 

[skywdriver]

I buy it. There really is no one factor suggesting any recovery is near. All the airlines do anymore is cut capacity, merge and downsize fleets, furlough and over work remaining crews. No attrition to retirement, as legacy carriers farm out more flying. The younger pilot group sees growth at their regionals but with no movement above hence no replacement of legacy senior pilots. The future will hold far less pilots period, as we bring in larger fleet types of the 70-120 seat range and reduce frequency and overlap with mergers. The ball is dark and murky. The best we can hope for is a total system revamp comprised of EMB-190 and CRJ-1000 type fleets with positions that pay $80,000 after 15 years of service.

Wow, doom and gloom at its best. I agree, the industry is seeing the worst economy since the great depression, as are all of the other industries that are affected by economic cycles. Sure the airlines cut capacity when there is too much in the system.

I don't think overall that much more flying is being given out to the regionals. There will more than likely be no more scope relief anywhere unless it happens through bankruptcy - and if i were an executive and actually cared about the company i ran, i would try to avoid bankruptcy out of fear that my company would never make it out. Times are different now than they were when UAL, NWA, and DAL went in to restructure. The administration is different. I think the next big airline to declare bankruptcy will be liquidating and not restructuring. So, maybe those bigger regional airplanes will be flown under mainline seniority lists, but not by the regionals. Everyone has seen the effects of scope relief. In addition, there isn't enough room in the sky for more little airplanes. Yeah, works fine when everyone is cutting capacity, but when demand picks back up and capacity follows, I wouldn't be surprised to see more slot regulation - which will lead to bigger airplanes flying less slots.

The future will hold as many pilots as there is demand for air travel. In general, air travel demands will continue to grow, although the rate will depend on economic recovery.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Plus you now have to worry about your regional carrier buying you in bankruptcy.

 

[lookin4better]

all back by next summer

 

[Whine Lover]

"....if i were an executive and actually cared about the company i ran..."

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha..... That's funny.

But, as Gumby said to Pokey just before take-off:

" Okay Pokey, no more horsing around. This is serious Sh!t ! "


YKMKR

 

[list2002]

all back by next summer

I sure hope so. But am hearing more around 2011, even WITH the rumored lump sum retirements. These posts are generally more positive than what I've been hearing in the cockpit, so thanks.

 

[Ex737Driver]

Ok. Now for some optimism. AUG bid will have recalls and possibly the long awaited LAX and S FL base. Justifications are as follows;

1) New flying for LAX - LAX-SAL and LAX-HAV with more to come with the base and some expansion. Has been delayed with the delay of the 787 program.

2) CAL ended 2008 with 350 airframes and a reduction of 11% system-wide capacity. We cut some 100+ CA seats throughout the system and furloughed 147 pilots. In 2009 we will have parked all 737-300's by the end of the year as well as 5 737-500's for a fleet reduction of 28 aircraft. Offsetting some of that loss is the addition of 1 737-800 and 13 737-900ER's bringing the total fleet count by the end of 2009 to 336.

3) 2010 has an aircraft delivery schedule of 2 777-200's in the first quarter, 4 757-300's in the second and third quarters, and 7 737-800's and 4 737-900ER's spread-out through 2010. This will bring our fleet total to 353 or 3 more aircraft than we had at the end of 2008.

4) Using 12 pilots per aircraft, which is simplistic, we will need 204 pilots to man these airframes. The 204 does not take into account retirements, medical out/death, and job loss. Using numbers from 2009, which was our worst year for retirements, you can reasonably expect a need for 250-275 pilots on the AUG bid or 250-275 split between the AUG 2009 and JAN 2010 bid.

 

[WolfManPack]

Ok. Now for some optimism. AUG bid will have recalls and possibly the long awaited LAX and S FL base. Justifications are as follows;

1) New flying for LAX - LAX-SAL and LAX-HAV with more to come with the base and some expansion. Has been delayed with the delay of the 787 program.

2) CAL ended 2008 with 350 airframes and a reduction of 11% system-wide capacity. We cut some 100+ CA seats throughout the system and furloughed 147 pilots. In 2009 we will have parked all 737-300's by the end of the year as well as 5 737-500's for a fleet reduction of 28 aircraft. Offsetting some of that loss is the addition of 1 737-800 and 13 737-900ER's bringing the total fleet count by the end of 2009 to 336.

3) 2010 has an aircraft delivery schedule of 2 777-200's in the first quarter, 4 757-300's in the second and third quarters, and 7 737-800's and 4 737-900ER's spread-out through 2010. This will bring our fleet total to 353 or 3 more aircraft than we had at the end of 2008.

4) Using 12 pilots per aircraft, which is simplistic, we will need 204 pilots to man these airframes. The 204 does not take into account retirements, medical out/death, and job loss. Using numbers from 2009, which was our worst year for retirements, you can reasonably expect a need for 250-275 pilots on the AUG bid or 250-275 split between the AUG 2009 and JAN 2010 bid.

I would love for this to pan out the way you describe. Is this logical thinking on your part or do you have a source?

Thanks!

 

[jonjuan]

Also, what's the realistic timeline for the new contract and subsequent increased staffing levels?

 

[DontFeedTheBear]

Yeah I don't know about the rate change dates, etc. and I hope that some of these factors do have an effect. But I'm pretty sure that they still have to give 6 months notice to keep their bridge medical.

Do they still need to give six months notice if they are going to be 62, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't bridge medical from 60 to 62?

 

[WolfManPack]

Do they still need to give six months notice if they are going to be 62, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't bridge medical from 60 to 62?

I think you're correct about this but I also believe that the majority of over 60 pilots that are cotemplating retirement / filed their papers are not going to be over age 62 when they actually retire.

Somebody told me that the total number of over 60 pilots at the company is a lot lower than people think at this point. Of course not all the pilots are going to elect to retire prior to 65 anyway.

 

[skywdriver]

Ok. Now for some optimism. AUG bid will have recalls and possibly the long awaited LAX and S FL base. Justifications are as follows;

1) New flying for LAX - LAX-SAL and LAX-HAV with more to come with the base and some expansion. Has been delayed with the delay of the 787 program.

2) CAL ended 2008 with 350 airframes and a reduction of 11% system-wide capacity. We cut some 100+ CA seats throughout the system and furloughed 147 pilots. In 2009 we will have parked all 737-300's by the end of the year as well as 5 737-500's for a fleet reduction of 28 aircraft. Offsetting some of that loss is the addition of 1 737-800 and 13 737-900ER's bringing the total fleet count by the end of 2009 to 336.

3) 2010 has an aircraft delivery schedule of 2 777-200's in the first quarter, 4 757-300's in the second and third quarters, and 7 737-800's and 4 737-900ER's spread-out through 2010. This will bring our fleet total to 353 or 3 more aircraft than we had at the end of 2008.

4) Using 12 pilots per aircraft, which is simplistic, we will need 204 pilots to man these airframes. The 204 does not take into account retirements, medical out/death, and job loss. Using numbers from 2009, which was our worst year for retirements, you can reasonably expect a need for 250-275 pilots on the AUG bid or 250-275 split between the AUG 2009 and JAN 2010 bid.

I too would love to see a need for that many pilots, but the problem with that logic in my opinion is as follows - we are only going to be three airplanes fatter end of 2010 (assuming we take delivery of all of those as we are currently planning) than we were AFTER they furloughed all of us. So, as far as I can tell, they are only going to need to staff 3 additional airplanes over what they had after we were furloughed. Yeah, the 777 will require more heads, and there will have been some retirements since 2008, but the question is, will that be enough to get all of the 147 back? The COLAs will also have the option of returning this spring.

 

[list2002]

In this economy cash is king, I don't see CAL spending the money needed to open a new base right now.

 

[Paul R. Smith]

12 pilots per airframe?

Maybe at Mesa but this is CAL where the staffing model is "understaff for as long as we can"



I realize a 777 takes a little more meat.

 

[jmreii]

I buy it. There really is no one factor suggesting any recovery is near. All the airlines do anymore is cut capacity, merge and downsize fleets, furlough and over work remaining crews. No attrition to retirement, as legacy carriers farm out more flying. The younger pilot group sees growth at their regionals but with no movement above hence no replacement of legacy senior pilots. The future will hold far less pilots period, as we bring in larger fleet types of the 70-120 seat range and reduce frequency and overlap with mergers. The ball is dark and murky. The best we can hope for is a total system revamp comprised of EMB-190 and CRJ-1000 type fleets with positions that pay $80,000 after 15 years of service.

Airlines have and always been part of the discretionary pie for consumers, notihng has changed since the 1970's. Air tarvel will be the last item on that list to recover form a economic downturn, it happens to be a long list this time around. Better pack a lunch and a sweater because you are going to need them.