CAL Fleet Plan

[ATRCA]

With all that said, I read on here also that if in the event of a merger the "new" contract had the United work rules....they would be short..immediately..any thoughts about this?

That could be true however I've not seen anything official from any of the numbers guys at CALALPA regarding that. Could be but the problem is that no one knows what reductions will happen to create "streamline"........

Predicting where growth will take place, what will be reduced, who's rules would apply when.....you get the idea. Those things are difficult to nail down.

 

[motch]

These are just my thoughts, but-

A) Any merger while both pilot groups are still in negotiations would be a disaster. Neither pilot group would have any reason to agree to a merger thereby negating any benefits a merger might bring! Not gonna happen.

B) If one group had a new contract in hand, there could be a reason to look at a merger but then the problem becomes which group has the new contract?
1) If CAL pilots have a new contract in hand, then the chances of a merger lies mostly in CAL's corner. Then the question becomes pilot integration.
2) If the UAL pilots have a new contract, then UAL would have more or at least equal bargining power for a merger. Then it would be up to the CAL pilots to put the brakes on a merger. (ala DAL/USAirways a few back)

C) Both pilot groups have new contracts and now management wants to merge.... well, now the pilots have some power but then the problem becomes seniority integration again!

It will all come down to when a merger is announced, what the financials look like at both carriers, number of furloughs on the street at both carriers and lastly career expectations at said carriers.

Had UAL not survived this past year and had gone into Ch 11, I would say a merger or acquisition would have been been just a matter of time.
Now, that UAL had made it through 09 and may be able to hold their own through 10... the possibility of a straight merger isn't as clear. For the reasons I've listed above.

One thing is clear, Delta is in better shape to take advantage of an economic recovery and their Sky Team will probably benefit from this.
American Airlines is a troubled carrier and One World has issues now because of it. It will be interesting to see their results in a year from now~

And then there's Star and the three dysfunctional American Carriers.
United, USAirways and Continental.
All three pilots groups have major issues with their management and in the case of USAirways, also with themselves.
While CAL has had great service, with the issues of disgruntled and tired/fatigued pilots & FA's this summer, the possibility of a mirrored imagine of what happened at NorthWest a few summers ago is very real.
United is in bad shape when it comes to customer service, fleet age and employee relations.
And last but not least, USAirways is just a mess.. to the point that they aren't always mentioned when it comes to Star!

That will make for a VERY PISSED OFF Star Alliance come end of this year, and into next year~
My fear there is that Star (Lufty) brings JetBlue into the alliance out of JFK because of this.

Again, just my opinion but it will be interesting to look back at this thread in a year from now~

Fly Safe, Fly Your Contract and Fly Professionally
Always
Motch

 

[chppr5]

You are correct in that a merged CAL/UAL would not hire for some time due to-
1) Possibly 1300+ pilots on the street (if it happened today)
2) UAL's 70 seat RJ feed which would negate the need to call back the furloughees IF-
The new airline did not have some sort of scope protection like CAL has currently.

On the other hand, if a merger is not announced in 2010 then expect to see recalls and hiring this year because-
Since bid 10-02 came out, we have leveled off on our aircraft numbers yet looking at bid 11-02, we show less pilots (4098 v. 4190) yet our fleet numbers are starting to increase. And as Furloughed80 states, we will have an increase in widebodies in 2010 and continued increases in 2011. Plus, in 2011 we start to bring our 737 numbers up to make up for the loss of the 737-300/500's these past 18 months.

The company will continue to manipulate the numbers for Wall Street but the reality is-
we will have more than 4 pilots retire this year.
we will have increased utilization of our current fleet.
we will have added flying, ie charters, mil and new routes.
we will melt down on a few occasions this summer based on current staffing!
At some point, even they will have to realize that.

One thing that still amazes me is that they are playing these games when the cards are in the pilots groups hand (along with maintenance).
If we make no headway this year, we can expect to be released sometime in 2011. Right when the 787's are coming, the economic recovery should be in full swing and best of all...
If we haven't come to an agreement by the summer of 2011 then expect to see chaos while at the same time Delta will be kicking all our collective asses! Star Alliance and Lufty are gonna love that~

Of course, if a merger were announced sometime this year, next year would be a mess but for other reasons...

Oh and one last thing. At some point this year/next year we will see changes in FAR rest regulations. This may change how we use reserves and also affect some of the other scheduling rules. While I would expect a 6-18 month time period for carries to implement the new rules, it should also help us in the long run~

motch

How long has CAL been in negotiations???? Are you in mediation yet??

 

[ATRCA]

How long has CAL been in negotiations???? Are you in mediation yet??

Economic openers exchanged less than a month ago, not in mediation yet.

 

[jetflier]

In my opinion, there is a strong possibility we could see furloughs return this Fall. This is based on an internal e-mail from manpower planning. Of course these plans could change in an instant, so take it for what it's worth. The last two years we have seen a spike in retirements around November when the GATT rate adjusts. 2010 should be no different. Let's hope for the best.

Keep in mind that management will always find a way to show that the company will go into bankruptcy if the pilots do not keep cost neutral or worse give some back. Know that AA and other airlines proved that an increase per passenger of $3.50 to about $10.00 would would almost DOUBLE the pilot crew pay....Keep the faith.....

 

[motch]

How long has CAL been in negotiations???? Are you in mediation yet??

Initial negotiations started July 07 (I believe)
Contract became amenable Jan 09
Economics given to company Dec 09

Expected result=
Company counter proposal sometime this Spring
back and forth this Summer into Fall into Winter.

Another round of proposals next Jan-Mar 11
Mediation board Spring 11
Cooling off period beginning Summer 11

last round of talks end Summer 11
strike in Fall 11
Contract vote Nov-Dec 11

Expect contract to go through 31 Dec 2014 instead of 2013

 

[AWACoff]

Expected result=
Company counter proposal sometime this Spring
back and forth this Summer into Fall into Winter.

Another round of proposals next Jan-Mar 11
Mediation board Spring 11
Cooling off period beginning Summer 11

last round of talks end Summer 11
strike in Fall 11
Contract vote Nov-Dec 11

Expect contract to go through 31 Dec 2014 instead of 2013

Are you guessing with this post or have you talked with your reps? I've talked with my reps and this is not what they are saying. Specifically I'm talking about the incoming IAH reps and the EWR reps.

 

[chppr5]

Initial negotiations started July 07 (I believe)
Contract became amenable Jan 09
Economics given to company Dec 09

Expected result=
Company counter proposal sometime this Spring
back and forth this Summer into Fall into Winter.

Another round of proposals next Jan-Mar 11
Mediation board Spring 11
Cooling off period beginning Summer 11

last round of talks end Summer 11
strike in Fall 11
Contract vote Nov-Dec 11

Expect contract to go through 31 Dec 2014 instead of 2013

You'll be in mediation a lot more than 3 months!

 

[motch]

I've always said that these are just my opinions...

But I have gone to LEC meetings where the Union has said it will take a while before we see a new contract.
We still have to get the company's counter proposal on economics and there are other sections still being discussed not to mention a few sections that were agreed upon that many have issues with already!

All I have to do is look at other carriers and see that it can take Years to get to mediation but then again, where there is a will.. maybe there is a way.
How long did it take HA for their new contract? LUV?
How long has AA been negotiating? UAL?
I think our timing will be good in 2011 because of an improving Global economy and the entrance of the 787.
That plus continued and worsting employee/management relations plus pressure from Star will hopefully allow for a decent CBA (for all groups- Pilots,Mechanics and Flight Attendants) sometime next year.

If you know more, that's great. But I do not believe a Rep can say-
"we will have a new CBA on x date".. they may be able to give their personal opinion (like I am) but that's about it.

Jeff S could come out tomorrow and say to Jay P- "hay, let's meet and gets this done!" It benefits the company greater to get it done now and hit the summer running than to drag it out. But after looking at this bid, we know how the company is playing this.
Increased aircraft, increased utilization, added routes and flights yet-
projected 4 retirements for the year and less pilots now than 2 years ago!

Gonna be a long summer and a long year. Oh Well~

motch

 

[EWR_FO]

How many on furlough still?? Any idea on hiring once all are recalled? Thanks

147. They aren't on furlough, they are hostages taken by the company to be used as negotiating leverage. This coming summer is going to be laughable.