Boyd on United

[AA717driver]

I know . . . . I wouldn't have spent the money to buy your wife dinner if I had known that I could've just taken her right to the hotel.

Hey, I thought it was funny. Guess I'm just another classless pilot. (Like the guy who called him a "fool" in the first place... )TC

 

[ESS PWR]

My guess, for what is worth, is that CAL and UAL will remain independent unless AMR is involved in a merger first.

While UAL has succesfully slashed unit cost, it remains to be seen how competitive they will be since they are still carrying a large debt load. Is unfortunate that employees at UAL have lost nearly everything while in BK and mgmt will get huge rewards next week for doing so.

I am not so confident UAL employees will feel fairly treated in a merger with CAL, since their career expectations have been significantly reduced during BK. From what I know, today CAL employees are facing a brighter future as far as career expectations and an arbitrator will probably see that.

Is nearly imposible to know what will happen because during a merger things are looked at the moment it happens and how healthy the corporations are.

 

[Sonny Crockett]

My guess, for what is worth, is that CAL and UAL will remain independent unless AMR is involved in a merger first.

While UAL has succesfully slashed unit cost, it remains to be seen how competitive they will be since they are still carrying a large debt load. Is unfortunate that employees at UAL have lost nearly everything while in BK and mgmt will get huge rewards next week for doing so.

I am not so confident UAL employees will feel fairly treated in a merger with CAL, since their career expectations have been significantly reduced during BK. From what I know, today CAL employees are facing a brighter future as far as career expectations and an arbitrator will probably see that.

Is nearly imposible to know what will happen because during a merger things are looked at the moment it happens and how healthy the corporations are.

It sure will be interesting, but I wouldn't call CAL "healthy" either.

 

[densoo]

I wouldn't call CAL "healthy" either.

Especially in reference to union leverage or pilot unity. While a merger of lists goes by ALPA rules, I would imagine if one pilot group plays dead and the other one goes for the glory the outcome will be lopsided.

 

[ESS PWR]

Especially in reference to union leverage or pilot unity. While a merger of lists goes by ALPA rules, I would imagine if one pilot group plays dead and the other one goes for the glory the outcome will be lopsided.

While pilot unity in a merger carries little or no weight in an arbritrator's decision, human behavior could dramatically change when one is facing a threat. I suspect that the ALPA merger policy might be attempted to be used, but in the end the arbritration board will decide regardless of the policy.

Looking at past mergers between same trade union carriers, a few factors seemed common in the decision making process of the judge or arbitrator. Those are W-2s, career expectations and progression among others. This is why I feel that at least today (maybe in six months will be diferrent) UAL pilots may not fare as well as some might expect against a merger with CAL pilots. I heard a newhire pilot at CAL should have enough seniority based on retirements alone to upgrade to Capt. in 4-5 years. Perhaps a similar seniority pilot at UAL can expect the same, but I admit it is difficult to guess since UAL has no newhire pilots on property.

I am refering to workforce integration list and not necesarily possible fences. Again, we could all call the shots now, but the fact remains that the arbritration board will look at the health of each corporation at the time of the merger.

Someone mentioned that CAL is not healthy, I never implied to that remark. However, it seems to me that CAL and AMR today are by far the healthiest of the legacy carriers in the marketplace or the least sick of them. Investors seem to agree with my assesment since both carriers shares price-to-earnings ratio reflect a positive cash flow outlook.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

CAL reportedly will be getting low on cash at the end of 2006.

I have no idea how to figure out which companies will be good in the long run.

Cliff
YIP

 

[densoo]

I have no idea how to figure out which companies will be good in the long.

Nor do they.