Boyd on United

[Newjetjockey]

http://www.aviationplanning.com/asrc1.htm

 

[Capt.LongThrust]

United does have a world-class customer service team, which is the main reason that the carrier's still in business.


WTF????????? This article is not even close.

 

[lowecur]

another spot on analysis

It seems UAL/CO will be the main focus of the merger. Airline Mgt for both companies know Citigroup/JP Morgan very well, and once the exit financing people are done with UAL, they will be turned over to the arbitrage departments for the eventual merger that will put the big bucks in the pocket of these two banks.

One thing is certain, Citigroup/JP Morgan stand to make very little on the 9% lending rate for exit financing. They know as stand-alone companies these two stand very little chance of making it long term. The big bucks are in the arbitrage departments, and this was the only way UAL was ever going to get viable exit financing from these two banks. It's all about playing the game, and Mike Boyd knows from where he speaks.

imp:

 

[Ty Webb]

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdana, Lucida]Boyd is improving with age:[/FONT]​

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"Next week, when United emerges out from under the protective cloak of the judge, it's essentially an airline with no significant competitive or cost advantages over its main competitors such as American or Continental, both of which have slashed costs without entirely slashing their employees' financial jugular. ".

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Amen. And didn't I just say this?-

Reportedly, the airline's financial wizards - the same ones in control before the airline did a one-and-a-half gainer into bankruptcy - have based the future on $50 oil. Wonderful wishful thinking, especially when one considers that crude closed on Friday at just under $69. Give or take, that would indicate that United is coming out of "chapter" with its fuel-cost estimates already about 30% out of whack.

[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]On the RJ front:[/FONT]

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[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]. . .the agency that provided funding to a number of Bombardier customers . . . . is welcoming home 42 CRJs, the result of returns from Northwest and the shutdown of Independence Air. [/FONT][FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]. . . EDC is putting on a brave face, noting that they can place these aircraft easily at other carriers, which, in this environment, is an expression of wonderful optimism, especially in light of the fact that some CRJs are, as we speak, being scrapped for parts. [/FONT][/FONT]

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The hits just keep on coming!




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[FONT=Tahoma, Verdan, Lucida]. . . . .One of the major reasons that we're seeing RJs being pulled from service is that they are increasingly non-viable in many of the mission applications that mega-carriers have put them in. Like long-haul O&D service to points in Florida. (Columbia to Tampa?) Or as fill-in frequencies in key, high-density competitive markets. ORD-ATL? Or in thin, long-haul hub spokes. (DEN-RDU?) In many (not all, but a whole lot) of these applications, the RJ is about as competitive as bringing a knife to a gunfight.[/FONT]

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[boeing747-800]

Ty you fool!

 

[Ty Webb]

Ty you fool!

I know . . . . I wouldn't have spent the money to buy your wife dinner if I had known that I could've just taken her right to the hotel.

 

[D-Bo]

They may be planning on oil at $50 but that is not the break even oil price. The break even oil price is in the high 60's. Besides, that figure means nothing when we don't know the break even oil prices of UALs competitors. How about if they even have a plan at all. I'm talking a plan other than the "try to stick around until UAL goes out of business plan" because that one doesn't look like it's going to happen.

 

[Sonny Crockett]

I know . . . . I wouldn't have spent the money to buy your wife dinner if I had known that I could've just taken her right to the hotel.

Real classy Ty!

 

[coogebeachhotel]

Mergers are coming. Hang on. Does Cal ALPA have a merger group formed yet?

 

[Lawman]

I know . . . . I wouldn't have spent the money to buy your wife dinner if I had known that I could've just taken her right to the hotel.

Decided to leave the pet Iguana at home tonight and give it a rest?

 

[AA717driver]

I know . . . . I wouldn't have spent the money to buy your wife dinner if I had known that I could've just taken her right to the hotel.

Hey, I thought it was funny. Guess I'm just another classless pilot. (Like the guy who called him a "fool" in the first place... )TC

 

[ESS PWR]

My guess, for what is worth, is that CAL and UAL will remain independent unless AMR is involved in a merger first.

While UAL has succesfully slashed unit cost, it remains to be seen how competitive they will be since they are still carrying a large debt load. Is unfortunate that employees at UAL have lost nearly everything while in BK and mgmt will get huge rewards next week for doing so.

I am not so confident UAL employees will feel fairly treated in a merger with CAL, since their career expectations have been significantly reduced during BK. From what I know, today CAL employees are facing a brighter future as far as career expectations and an arbitrator will probably see that.

Is nearly imposible to know what will happen because during a merger things are looked at the moment it happens and how healthy the corporations are.

 

[Sonny Crockett]

My guess, for what is worth, is that CAL and UAL will remain independent unless AMR is involved in a merger first.

While UAL has succesfully slashed unit cost, it remains to be seen how competitive they will be since they are still carrying a large debt load. Is unfortunate that employees at UAL have lost nearly everything while in BK and mgmt will get huge rewards next week for doing so.

I am not so confident UAL employees will feel fairly treated in a merger with CAL, since their career expectations have been significantly reduced during BK. From what I know, today CAL employees are facing a brighter future as far as career expectations and an arbitrator will probably see that.

Is nearly imposible to know what will happen because during a merger things are looked at the moment it happens and how healthy the corporations are.

It sure will be interesting, but I wouldn't call CAL "healthy" either.

 

[densoo]

I wouldn't call CAL "healthy" either.

Especially in reference to union leverage or pilot unity. While a merger of lists goes by ALPA rules, I would imagine if one pilot group plays dead and the other one goes for the glory the outcome will be lopsided.

 

[ESS PWR]

Especially in reference to union leverage or pilot unity. While a merger of lists goes by ALPA rules, I would imagine if one pilot group plays dead and the other one goes for the glory the outcome will be lopsided.

While pilot unity in a merger carries little or no weight in an arbritrator's decision, human behavior could dramatically change when one is facing a threat. I suspect that the ALPA merger policy might be attempted to be used, but in the end the arbritration board will decide regardless of the policy.

Looking at past mergers between same trade union carriers, a few factors seemed common in the decision making process of the judge or arbitrator. Those are W-2s, career expectations and progression among others. This is why I feel that at least today (maybe in six months will be diferrent) UAL pilots may not fare as well as some might expect against a merger with CAL pilots. I heard a newhire pilot at CAL should have enough seniority based on retirements alone to upgrade to Capt. in 4-5 years. Perhaps a similar seniority pilot at UAL can expect the same, but I admit it is difficult to guess since UAL has no newhire pilots on property.

I am refering to workforce integration list and not necesarily possible fences. Again, we could all call the shots now, but the fact remains that the arbritration board will look at the health of each corporation at the time of the merger.

Someone mentioned that CAL is not healthy, I never implied to that remark. However, it seems to me that CAL and AMR today are by far the healthiest of the legacy carriers in the marketplace or the least sick of them. Investors seem to agree with my assesment since both carriers shares price-to-earnings ratio reflect a positive cash flow outlook.

 

[atpcliff]

Hi!

CAL reportedly will be getting low on cash at the end of 2006.

I have no idea how to figure out which companies will be good in the long run.

Cliff
YIP

 

[densoo]

I have no idea how to figure out which companies will be good in the long.

Nor do they.