Big News re: DL mainline?

[csmith]

Re: Gen Lee/Super Ed

I guess it's time for yet another perspective.

First, for the guy who claims that 911 is like shell shock for pax, this is just not correct. Even the company admits that the shock effects of 911 are in the past. In fact, in the hearing, this was not even the company's argument. Their argument is the fallout from the attacks of 911 in the form of hassle factor, increased security costs, etc. Do people think about the 911 attacks, yes. Does affect their decision to travel by air? Minimally, if at all. AMTRAK does nothing but help our cause by crashing every other month. Rail is simply not the answer to expedited travel. This has been confirmed by our increasing loads on the shuttle.

The TA. I have to admit that I was a bit red in the face at first glance. After reading it and hearing the input, however, I am convinced by it's passage. I do question, somewhat, the method of its passage. That is a metter for explanation from my rep--whih is coming. The protections are there against job loss via the code share. In fact, the code share between CAL and NWA has actually increased block hours. The stickler with many refers to the max allowed block percentage of 49%. What isn't getting addressed is the conditions which must be satisfied in order to allow the company 49% of the block hours to go to DCI. The operating margin--loss--has to be large enough so that the loss must be in the billions over the next two years or so. If that indeed happens, the "Delta family" has much more to worry about than 49% of the block hours belonging to DCI. Additionally, DCI is ALL of DCI--Comair, ASA, Chautauqua, Skywest,--not, I believe, American Eagle. So the idea of one carrier getting big enough to become a Group 1, ~~~^~~, is ludicrous. Still additionally, the minimum block hours are also expressed as a function of the margin. Should the code share indeed add the advertised, min block hours will increase--thus adding the need for pilots--thus recalls. No furlough recalls immediately--yeah that's a bummer, a real bummer. Probably enough of a bummer that some may not exactly think it through prior to their vote--should they have gotten one.

Even more, Delta has done something that others have failed to do. They have done something on enhancing the revenue side of the house, rather than just pay cutting the workforce--UAL, AAA. This is where the problem is. National captains made 60K, look where they are. It ain't about salaries.

This notwithstanding, the non-union side of the house is getting lessons as we speak, and the pressure on the union side is ever increasing. I think we fared better in this deal than most will think. I do think it substantially affects our lives and we should have gotten the vote. I expect another update from the RJDC soon. I have a pretty good idea of what they are going to say in it. I will preempt on one part. I absolutely agree that ALPA has now allowed a codeshare domestically on an aircraft over 70 seats. I also agree that it is wrong that we allow NWA and CAL to do it without Comair and ASA. Still thinking about that one, and want to get some details before I get too riled about it.

More to follow....

 

[trainerjet]

csmith,

Dave has been spouting that same arguement for almost a year now, that since 9-11 people are afraid to fly...especially on larger aircraft like the 757. Apparently he actually believes this nonsense, since he continues to profess it, and give his lame reasons why. So I don't think any arguement to the contrary, no matter how well thought out and presented, will change his mind.

He's so obsessed with Delta, DALPA, FM, etc., that he has lost all concept of reality. Why he obsesses over things that don't concern him should give you some clue as to his state of mind (or lack thereof). Simply ignore him. Most everyone else does.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Re: Re: Gen Lee/Super Ed

DCI is ALL of DCI--Comair, ASA, Chautauqua, Skywest,--not, I believe, American Eagle. So the idea of one carrier getting big enough to become a Group 1, ~~~^~~, is ludicrous.

Yes, we agree. But our political power is growing none the less. Some day we might even get the right to negotiate with our employer. I keep hoping that eventually ALPA will allow us the same rights of representation that everybody else got in the 1890's. Don't let me kid you - I know our representation is completely impotent and likely to stay that way (until...)

So how does the deal keep the CAL's and the Chautauqua's separated?

How is DAL flying defined now? Is there any such a thing anymore?

 

[DaveGriffin]

Re: Re: Gen Lee/Super Ed

Even the company admits that the shock effects of 911 are in the past. In fact, in the hearing, this was not even the company's argument. Their argument is the fallout from the attacks of 911 in the form of hassle factor, increased security costs, etc. Do people think about the 911 attacks, yes. Does affect their decision to travel by air? Minimally, if at all. AMTRAK does nothing but help our cause by crashing every other month. Rail is simply not the answer to expedited travel. This has been confirmed by our increasing loads on the shuttle.

csmith;

Delta is certainly arguing a much broader scope in support of FM than I have here. The attacks of 9/11 were the proverbial straw that broke the camels back. The camel was already overloaded with a declining economy and then came 9/11. The aftershocks of the attacks, including the oppressive security changes, have added to the decline in air travel.

But the fact remains that the trigger was the attack of 9/11; an unforeseen and unpredictable event with catastrophic consequences. That is the definition of FM. The attorneys who wrote the contract had no previous experience or boilerplate to add the language to the PWA to exclude an event such as 9/11. That is why you found yourself on the losing side after the first hearing. The BEST you can hope for in the second hearing is a decision that instructs Delta to cease additional furloughs.

With a 10% reduction in revenue miles since 9/11 (primarily in 757 and wide-body transcon and international flying), a 10% furlough rate makes perfect sense.

That ALPA has fought so hard to arm and deputize pilot volunteers, as well as authorize small arms fire within an airborne commercial aircraft, is directly contradictory to your claim that the attacks of 9/11, and subsequent incidents and threats since, have not increased the threat to commercial aviation.

The sad part is that the MEC knows full well that the chances of reversing FM are very, very low. Yet they continue to propagandize about the valiant fight that DALPA is mounting in defense of the junior pilots. And then, to add insult to injury, the codeshare TA is a blatant and cowardly effort to again protect and promote the interests of the senior pilots at the expense of the juniors.

I can’t wait to see the LCC deal. As we all know full well, sh*t rolls downhill.

 

[DaveGriffin]

Dave has been spouting that same arguement for almost a year now, that since 9-11 people are afraid to fly...especially on larger aircraft like the 757. Apparently he actually believes this nonsense......

Gosh trainerjet. Sorry I interrupted your DALPA circle jerk.

You guys have been p*ssing and moaning the same “we been cheated” BS for more than a year and I wanted to offer an opposing viewpoint. I’ m surprised my lone voice of dissent has caused you such anguish.

 

[General Lee]

Dave,


Maybe you didn't know that the judge (arbitrator) said that he would stay on the case throughout this process, and not allow Delta to "take advantage" of FM? Force Mejeur, Dave, is a temporary solution when something catestrophic happens, and 9-11 was deemed catestrophic. But, even our VP of Marketing said in the Atlanta Journal Constitution that people were not scared to fly about 3 months after 9-11. And, our No Furlough clause stated that regardless of the economy, FINANCIAL STABILITY, or profitability or UNPROFITABILITY of Delta----NO FURLOUGHS.
The arbitrator probably made the right call on our first hearing, but now everyone who knows what is going on out there knows what really is wrong these days-----low revenue from cheap tickets. Did 9-11 scare everyone into buying cheaper tickets? I don't think so. The economy also is having a HUGE impact----businessmen are now having their secretaries use Priceline.com or Orbitz to find them their last minute fares-----is that because of 9-11 DAVE? Nope. Passengers have gotten smarter, not scared. The airlines are also saying there is hassle factor with airport security. That maybe true, but I think this Thanksgiving and Christmas travel will be full. Are they all scared? Dave, you say 9-11 was the straw that broke the camel's back. So, there were other problems before 9-11? Yes, the economy was starting to falter before 9-11-----and that is also a Non-furlough event. You also said 10% of our revenue is down, so they should furlough 10%. They are scheduled to furlough up to 1400, and that is 15% of the 9800 total pilots. Why don't they stop at 10%?

The arbitrator said he was staying on this case, and that is good for us. He will decide when FM is over (when people are NOT scared to fly-----that was is only reason why he was allowing the furloughs to continue, I believe) and then decide on a recall schedule. And, Dalpa had better continue to fight for us for the amount of dues we pay them. They know that Delta has saved a lot of money with 990 guys on the street, but it is time to figure other ways to save money and time to stick to the contract they signed. If they want more from us, they should come asking, we will probably listen. Respect is important, and they may get what they want, who knows?

Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Tim47SIP]

cssmith

The stickler with many refers to the max allowed block percentage of 49%. What isn't getting addressed is the conditions which must be satisfied in order to allow the company 49% of the block hours to go to DCI. The operating margin--loss--has to be large enough so that the loss must be in the billions over the next two years or so. If that indeed happens, the "Delta family" has much more to worry about than 49% of the block hours belonging to DCI.

Was wondering what is behined this statement. What exactly does the new agreement entail and what are the company requirements. Thanks. Tim


trainerjet
Dave has been spouting that same arguement for almost a year now, that since 9-11 people are afraid to fly...especially on larger aircraft like the 757. Apparently he actually believes this nonsense, since he continues to profess it, and give his lame reasons why. So I don't think any arguement to the contrary, no matter how well thought out and presented, will change his mind.


Dave does have some valid points. Not that I agree with all of them, many of his ideas do make sence. As written in many aviation journals, 911 is still affecting us in several different ways. We dont have to change his mind, a differnt point of view is usually better than a one sided debate.

 

[9rj9]

Comair rumor

32 RJs coming in the month of January alone, does this have anything to do with the undisclosed agreement between Delta MEC/ Delta. All of a sudden the hiring pool is gone and we are interviewing throughout Dec.

 

[trainerjet]

Gosh trainerjet. Sorry I interrupted your DALPA circle jerk.

You guys have been p*ssing and moaning the same “we been cheated” BS for more than a year and I wanted to offer an opposing viewpoint. I’ m surprised my lone voice of dissent has caused you such anguish.

Dave,

Sorry to disappoint, but I'm not Delta. Just going on about a subject that doesn't concern me. Same as you.

Get it????????? I doubt it.

 

[General Lee]

9RJ9,

32 jets in Jan alone? I don't think that is possible unless you are getting some from another airline (like older Midway ones), or maybe you are including Chitaqua's E145's for the Florida deal. I have a friend who is a Captain at Continental Express, and he says there are a lot of rumors going around in CLE and IAH that they might be the next Delta Connection. You see, Express Jet, their company which is partly owned by Continental, is sorta like the next Skywest----being able to fly for more than one Major.
He told me that Salt Lake City may be their next co-hub (with Salt Lake----like DFW and COMAIR/ASA/SKYWEST) and this rumor was echoed by a Skywest friend of mine. He also said he heard maybe Denver for another un-named airline. Interesting, huh?
That big codeshare deal might have some really interesting outcomes. But, there will always be a mainline, and I guess now a LCC---with 757's. Very Interesting!!!

Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[9rj9]

new rjs

Canadair wanted to get the aircraft off the lot for tax purposes, I guess we will see. I do know that four new hires classes are scheduled for Dec.

 

[~~~^~~~]

Re: cssmith

Was wondering what is behined this statement. What exactly does the new agreement entail and what are the company requirements. Thanks. Tim

PM me with a real e-mail address and I can send you the text of the deal. The section you refer to is as follows

OPERATING MARGIN / DCI % (year 2004)

>10%/ 44%
>5<10% / 44%
0 <5% / 45%
0 < -2% / 45%
-2%, or more / 47%

In 2005 the numbers go up by 1% through break even operating margin and up to 49% if operating margin is -10%. Lets face it, if Delta is losing 10% on every dollar that comes in the door, we need to be getting interviews at Freedom Air, or something....

If these numbers look familiar they pretty much match what the RJDC forecast would have to happen in order for Delta to take delivery of the RJ's on firm order.

What amazes me is the effort ALPA made to keep the apartied members on the plantation.

This will effect connection on routes like DFW / HOU and ATL / CLE because the 35 passenger trips can be better covered by putting the pax in empty CAL and NWA seats. Further, we can codeshare with MESA, Jet Express, Airlink and the rest now. The Delta Connection family just grew by another six players.

Thanks a pant load, ALPA.

 

[wil]

My brother was using a buddy pass on Delta and got bumped off the flight he wanted. The other flights were looking full so he had to buy a walk up ticket at the counter. Southwest from tpa to sna with a stop in bna was 325.00! That is what we are up against! I take no pleasure in ASA growing while Delta mainline shrinks but we need a business model that works and it is time to get lean and mean. The days of million dollar retirements are over. We need to wake up to that fact. God bless and fly safe- Wil

 

[csmith]

Re: Re: Re: Gen Lee/Super Ed

From D:

The attacks of 9/11 were the proverbial straw that broke the camels back. The camel was already overloaded with a declining economy and then came 9/11. The aftershocks of the attacks, including the oppressive security changes, have added to the decline in air travel.

Look, it's as simple as this. The attacks WERE unprecedented. There is no doubt about that. When the airspace was shut down for 2 days--FM unquestionable existed. Furloughs were justified. 2 months after the attacks were cause to furlough. When the initial arbitration was heard--the people were coming back. To say that people are afraid enough to not fly is just ludicrous. You give away tickets and they flock to the planes. You ever see a gate in New York when they are giving away vouchers. They literally fight to get to the counter first. People in New York would line up to get shot if it was for free. The company's argument, which carries more weight with me than yours, is purely economic. Fallout from 911 or not, it's economic. Furloughs not justified. The arbitrator ruled--so be it. i think there was more to it than what we know--but so be it.

You won't see a ruling which brings everybody back at once. You can't bring people back to jobs which just aren't there.I think that there could very well be a deal struck somewhere which will save face for the company, and bring back the furloughees ASAP.

That ALPA has fought so hard to arm and deputize pilot volunteers, as well as authorize small arms fire within an airborne commercial aircraft, is directly contradictory to your claim that the attacks of 9/11, and subsequent incidents and threats since, have not increased the threat to commercial aviation.

Seems to me that the ASPA has been the ones doing all of the fighting--with an endorsement from ALPA. Not exactly what I would call "fighting so hard". Regardless, I feel as if it's a "day late and a dollar short". The new threats will be of some other form of destruction--not maniacs breaking into the cockpit and flying jets into buildings. Still regardless, I think the "average joe" passenger knows little of this--nor does it affect their decision to fly which is the debate at hand. My testimony is not that the threats have diminished, it is that the people have returned, albeit at lower fares. I blame this more on a depressed economy, and the lack of commissions for travel agents than the events of 911. The airlines did it to themselves. When the banner years return, so will first class and the high yield business pax. The airlines just need to figure out how to make money in the lean years. It's about revenue, not compensation.

The sad part is that the MEC knows full well that the chances of reversing FM are very, very low. Yet they continue to propagandize about the valiant fight that DALPA is mounting in defense of the junior pilots. And then, to add insult to injury, the codeshare TA is a blatant and cowardly effort to again protect and promote the interests of the senior pilots at the expense of the juniors.

see above. It has been said that the numbers show that this TA will actually speed up the recall of furloughees over a lack of code share.

I can’t wait to see the LCC deal. As we all know full well, sh*t rolls downhill.

Well, as predicted, the LCC has been unveiled somewhat. Questions have been answered and the contract stands. The urban legends are put to rest. It ain't all about pilot salaries. It's about the size of aircraft--note the lack of RJ, and about scheduling efficiency, aircraft utilization, ASMs, etc. I completely agree with the concept. Let's just see if they can implement it.

Incidentally, if sh*t trully does run downhill, where does it go after passing past the Delta side of the family and continues its trek downward--with even greater mass at that point?