Best zero time to regional route

[Indy319FA]

What I hear you saying is spend $100K on college so that you can move into a low-middle management position so that you can spend $30K to finance a hobby that might land you a $22K/yr job on the outside chance you land a job at a major airline 10 years later. And that's supposed to give you the perspective to keep your attitude up?

Who has the money and lifespan to devote to two half-hearted pursuits?

Exactly. Which is why regional airlines are having a difficult time filling classes now and it is just going to get harder over the next year as attrition picks up and part 117 kicks in. To go to one of these college aviation programs is pretty much financial suicide unless mom and dad have a couple of hundred K laying around. A while back a young guy called one of the financial gurus on the radio (may have been Dave Ramsey) and told him what he expected pay for a college aviation program and what he would make after finishing college. After laughing for a couple of minutes, the finance guy told him to forget aviation and get a business degree as aviation would be a horrible investment with practically zero return.

Will be interesting to see how all this shakes out, but I think you will see bigger planes, more flying insourced to mainline, and pipeline programs established where you get your degree, flow to instruction job, flow to regional, flow to mainline established with some kind of tuition guarantee involved either on the front or back end where mainline will pay for some of your education. This is getting priced to the point where average people cannot afford it. The zero to airline pilot programs are going to fall apart because not enough people are going to pay their prices when it won't get them a leg up anymore.

For half of what these guys starting now are going to pay for an aviation degree I have:
A History Degree, an aviation degree, 2 years toward an engineering degree, and an MBA in Accounting. Think about that. Over the last ten years the cost of an aviation education has tripled.

Hiring will come from the college programs and military with a few guys that worked their way up to 1500 hours at the local FBO. And there won't be enough of them for a while. This is going to get very interesting.

 

[Bringupthebird]

No, I think you will see a government-sponsored program that trains virtually anyone to fly via simulator to a certain degree of competency as aircraft "monitors". Not only will the path to the job change; the job itself will substantially change. We are seeing the last generation of airline pilots as we know them, to be replaced by "monitors" and eventually pilotless aircraft.

We need to accept that the world economies will continue to deflate and the demand to reduce costs everywhere will become a necessity to survive. Pilotless aircraft can be built without the necessity for pilot-able stability and can be more efficient allowing for eventual hybrid. fuel cell or full electric powerplants.

 

[Gr82Aviate]

No, I think you will see a government-sponsored program that trains virtually anyone to fly via simulator to a certain degree of competency as aircraft "monitors". Not only will the path to the job change; the job itself will substantially change. We are seeing the last generation of airline pilots as we know them, to be replaced by "monitors" and eventually pilotless aircraft.

We need to accept that the world economies will continue to deflate and the demand to reduce costs everywhere will become a necessity to survive. Pilotless aircraft can be built without the necessity for pilot-able stability and can be more efficient allowing for eventual hybrid. fuel cell or full electric powerplants.

Maybe for cargo operations, but pilotless passenger aircraft are going to take a bit longer for anyone to accept...

 

[Indy319FA]

No, I think you will see a government-sponsored program that trains virtually anyone to fly via simulator to a certain degree of competency as aircraft "monitors". Not only will the path to the job change; the job itself will substantially change. We are seeing the last generation of airline pilots as we know them, to be replaced by "monitors" and eventually pilotless aircraft.

We need to accept that the world economies will continue to deflate and the demand to reduce costs everywhere will become a necessity to survive. Pilotless aircraft can be built without the necessity for pilot-able stability and can be more efficient allowing for eventual hybrid. fuel cell or full electric powerplants.

Forget anything from the government. Airlines are making billions and they are going to ask the government to pay for their pilot training costs? Good luck getting that through congress when the government can't even pay its bills now.

Aviation universities are already partnering up with regional airlines and mainlines. Eagle is hiring guys and sending them to flight schools to build time until they get to 1000 and they will flow to Eagle. They are getting Eagle benefits while the flight school pays their salary.

At the college program where I instructed several HR reps have come through from regional airlines and their mainline partners to discuss setting up what I already discussed above. The big question is about the reimbursement, and if it should occur at graduation and be secured by a long term commitment, or after a graduate has worked in the pipeline for a certain amount of time and be tied to longevity at the company.

Go talk to some of the military guys who fly these drones and they'll tell you a different story about how great this technology is. Its great for the military because if one goes haywire they only lose an aircraft and some missiles, and they don't have to risk a pilot attacking hard targets. Little different when you are talking about putting people or expensive cargo at risk. Good luck getting Lloyd's to insure a cargo aircraft without pilots. You may see cargo go to one pilot monitor, but it is unlikely you will ever see completely unmanned large aircraft over populated areas. Too much risk.

You will never see people get on an unpiloted large aircraft for the forseeable future. Ever. There was a survey about this recently and something like 10% of passengers said they would be willing to fly on an aircraft with no pilot. Its all about perception and has nothing to do with technology. Used to get a laugh all the time when working as an agent and passengers would refuse to fly on a brand new Saab, and ask to be re booked on a 40 year old DC 9 because it is 'newer' technology. Perception is reality and logic flies out the window.

 

[CX880]

No, I think you will see a government-sponsored program that trains virtually anyone to fly via simulator to a certain degree of competency as aircraft "monitors". Not only will the path to the job change; the job itself will substantially change. We are seeing the last generation of airline pilots as we know them, to be replaced by "monitors" and eventually pilotless aircraft.

We need to accept that the world economies will continue to deflate and the demand to reduce costs everywhere will become a necessity to survive. Pilotless aircraft can be built without the necessity for pilot-able stability and can be more efficient allowing for eventual hybrid. fuel cell or full electric powerplants.

Current and future airplanes scheduled to be delivered are certified for two pilots. And they will fly for 20, 30 years. You won't be seeing robots flying you to Hong Kong anytime soon. Even the aliens in Independence Day were hand flying those space ships...

 

[jetlag7]

I'm sure the same sentiments were uttered regarding trains with no conductors and elevators without lift operators.....

 

[PBRstreetgang]

I'm sure the same sentiments were uttered regarding trains with no conductors and elevators without lift operators.....

Yeah, because trains and elevators ride on steel rails and still manage to crash, check the Edmonton local news, but by all means keep comparing squash to microscopes......and you wonder why you work for 1/2 the mainline pilots payscale.

 

[Mercyful Fate]

Yeah, because trains and elevators ride on steel rails and still manage to crash, check the Edmonton local news, but by all means keep comparing squash to microscopes......and you wonder why you work for 1/2 the mainline pilots payscale.

So what does that say for you?

 

[Indy319FA]

I'm sure the same sentiments were uttered regarding trains with no conductors and elevators without lift operators.....

Last time I checked there are still a couple of guys driving the train, and if the elevator breaks you make a phone call and elevator maintenance comes and lets you out.

George goes tango uniform at 230 without a pilot on board and its harp city for everybody. Big difference.

 

[PBRstreetgang]

Yea that or paint a red dot on your forehead or join an Indian reservation. Whatever helps..

Thank god you will be Hulas's goat rimmer to the end. Are you still his Cleveland Steamer go to gal?

 

[PBRstreetgang]

So what does that say for you?

Uhhhmmmn, that I can read a newspaper?

 

[Mercyful Fate]

Uhhhmmmn, that I can read a newspaper?

Guess all them smarts from being able to read a newspaper allows you to fly for 1/2 the pay of a mainline pilot?

 

[CX880]

thank god you will be hulas's goat rimmer to the end. Are you still his cleveland steamer go to gal?

LoLoL! Where do you come up with this stuff cuz? Were you his?

 

[Bringupthebird]

Last time I checked there are still a couple of guys driving the train, and if the elevator breaks you make a phone call and elevator maintenance comes and lets you out.

George goes tango uniform at 230 without a pilot on board and its harp city for everybody. Big difference.

There will be one minimally trained pilot to land the airplane. The lack of supply of people willing to lay out large sums of money in a career with a diminishing future is why the government will step in and change the entire airline pilot paradigm.

We are going to a GPS based system without navaids, without air-ground voice communication and to monitor/controller based flight crew. They have successfully landed UAVs on carrier decks. How many lives would be lost if one of those went haywire. The USAF Academy has pilot slots going unspoken for.

2-3 years of extensive testing will build a credible safety record that the flying public will accept. The cost savings from pilotless aircraft will be so overwhelming (no duty lime limits) that airlines will lose investors if they cling to the old human flightcrew. I wouldn't be surprised to see airlines switch to a pilotless option while on the assembly line.

No we are moving rapidly towards a system much like the people movers in Newark, Dallas, Atlanta and Denver. Folks should plan their careers accordingly.

 

[Indy319FA]

There will be one minimally trained pilot to land the airplane. The lack of supply of people willing to lay out large sums of money in a career with a diminishing future is why the government will step in and change the entire airline pilot paradigm.

We are going to a GPS based system without navaids, without air-ground voice communication and to monitor/controller based flight crew. They have successfully landed UAVs on carrier decks. How many lives would be lost if one of those went haywire. The USAF Academy has pilot slots going unspoken for.

2-3 years of extensive testing will build a credible safety record that the flying public will accept. The cost savings from pilotless aircraft will be so overwhelming (no duty lime limits) that airlines will lose investors if they cling to the old human flightcrew. I wouldn't be surprised to see airlines switch to a pilotless option while on the assembly line.

No we are moving rapidly towards a system much like the people movers in Newark, Dallas, Atlanta and Denver. Folks should plan their careers accordingly.

The idea that the government is going to fund some program to train pilots outside of the armed services is laughable given the given the present fiscal state of the US government. Also the FAA just spent two years increasing the standards for commercial pilots. As long as Chucky Schumer and the Democrats have more than 40 votes in the Senate you will never see the ATP standards repealed. Airlines are going to be responsible for creating their own training pipelines as military fixed wing pilots become fewer and fewer.

Last time I checked the military is not allowed to fly UAVs over populated areas in the US. Obviously you haven't dealt with the flying public very much other than shutting the cockpit door. They are nervous enough getting on an aircraft with pilots than to think they would ever fly without one. If you're flying around empty, you're going to lose money either with or without pilots. Passengers are motivated by two things when purchasing tickets: safety and price. If they don't think its safe you can give the tickets away and it won't matter. The best example of this is ValuJet after the everglades crash. They couldn't give tickets away and ended up buying Air Tran so they could re brand the company to get away from passenger concerns about safety.