Ok, I sort of glazed over looking at all that math up there. What I want to know is, can United actually provide a quality service to pax with their new business plan? I know it's all speculation for now, but the last few times I've flown UAL, things have been anything but friendly. Morale seems very low among ticket and gate agents and FAs, and for way more than Jet Blue, SWA, or whatever, they are barely serving drinks anymore. Although the adjustable headrests and Ch. 9 (as always) are nice. I want the danm lemon-scented towels to come back.
Welcome to Flightinfo.com
- Register now and join the discussion
- Friendliest aviation Ccmmunity on the web
- Modern site for PC's, Phones, Tablets - no 3rd party apps required
- Ask questions, help others, promote aviation
- Share the passion for aviation
- Invite everyone to Flightinfo.com and let's have fun
Attn. United Haters
- Thread starter furlough-boy
- Start date
- Watchers 21
Welcome to Flightinfo.com
- Register now and join the discussion
- Modern secure site, no 3rd party apps required
- Invite your friends
- Share the passion of aviation
- Friendliest aviation community on the web
I think this is where it gets confusing, it's not as simple as a little Johnny adding up apples story I know that's what got under my skin
Unrestricted cash is money under the mattress = Apples
Restricted cash- can be a variety of things (see USAir and the ATSB), one thing it's not is cash under the mattres= Oranges
A $3 billion dollar loan from Citi or whomever needs to be repaid, is not cash under the mattress - Lemons
What no one here has mentioned is what Tilton is offering up as collateral? You don't go to a bank with out anything to offer. No one here actually thinks that the banks are lending it on the strength of UAL's ballance sheet and their brand new exit plan?
What is he offering this month that has 4 banks running? He has to be offering something good, heck they are even offering $500 million more then what he initially wanted.
IMHO he feels the pressure to secure exit financing quickly, he fully realizes that within the next 60 days 2 of his major competitors will be competing with the very same banks for financing.
Does his new business plan take into account the fact that he will no longer have a competitive advantage. Once the other majors go CH11, the pressure will be on every union to lower the bar even further and they will. What about oil? The days of $45 dollar a barrel are long gone.
The real problem occurs if he has to re-enter ch11. Once the new laws go into effect on Oct 17, companies entering Ch11 only have 18 months to exit before creditors can force liquidation.
Unrestricted cash is money under the mattress = Apples
Restricted cash- can be a variety of things (see USAir and the ATSB), one thing it's not is cash under the mattres= Oranges
A $3 billion dollar loan from Citi or whomever needs to be repaid, is not cash under the mattress - Lemons
What no one here has mentioned is what Tilton is offering up as collateral? You don't go to a bank with out anything to offer. No one here actually thinks that the banks are lending it on the strength of UAL's ballance sheet and their brand new exit plan?
What is he offering this month that has 4 banks running? He has to be offering something good, heck they are even offering $500 million more then what he initially wanted.
IMHO he feels the pressure to secure exit financing quickly, he fully realizes that within the next 60 days 2 of his major competitors will be competing with the very same banks for financing.
Does his new business plan take into account the fact that he will no longer have a competitive advantage. Once the other majors go CH11, the pressure will be on every union to lower the bar even further and they will. What about oil? The days of $45 dollar a barrel are long gone.
The real problem occurs if he has to re-enter ch11. Once the new laws go into effect on Oct 17, companies entering Ch11 only have 18 months to exit before creditors can force liquidation.
Last edited:
F9 Driver said:
Am I wrong in assuming that F9 is "selling their product" right now for less than it will cost in the near future? Your Airbus leases are heavily back-loaded as I understand it. It seems to me that as the true Airbus lease costs begin to kick in, F9 will see further erosion in cost advantages over the UAL competition. I am not trying to spar with you, just wondering if their is any validity to this line of reasoning.
G4G5 said:
There's no doubt that this 3B is going to cost UAL a few hundred million a year just in interest payments and it has to be paid off. But for airlines being the highly leveraged, cash flow generating machines they are, that's just the way world turns for all of us.
I don't know if we'll know what exactly is being used for collateral. Maybe that kind of info can be obtained from the bankruptcy court filings when it is released. We do have collateral, as that is how we obtained DIP financing. Unlike a Delta Airlines, for example, that has little or no collateral for DIP financing. Wait to see what interest rate they'll be paying for DIP financing if they unfortunately enter bankruptcy. Anyway, perhaps that collateral will be reused, along with whatever we have left after having renegotiated almost all of our debt. And, of course, I'm sure these banks might receive one or two (or thousands) of newly minted stock certificates in our newly organized UAL. Not to mention that the interest rate we'll probably be charged might be a "little" higher than 10 year T-bills
You gotta look at it from the banks' point of view as well. Interest rates are low (i.e. they want to make money on the money they loan), so they'll get cash from interest at least a little higher in the airline business then they'll get elsewhere if they had loaned the money to a "real" company (he-he), they will have some sort of collateral and will be first in line again if UAL were to enter Chapter 11 again for some unknown reason. Two of our major competitors are either going to go into bankruptcy or will struggle along if they don't and UAL will benefit from that just like they did when we entered bankruptcy, and they know that no matter what oil prices do, the airlines HAVE TO start charging fares to cover their costs, which they are slowly starting to do. If they don't, they'll be forced to when they enter CH 11. To the short to intermediate term, it doesn't look that bad for UAL. Even the effects of cost cutting have not fully taken effect yet. Long term at UAL is anyone's guess.
P.S. I have nothing, zero, nada against Delta. I'm just using them for an example as I've been following their situation almost as closely as ours and I'm more familiar with their numbers. I hope no one goes through what we did.
Last edited:
skykid
On Point
- Joined
- Jan 24, 2002
- Posts
- 759
What makes me go hummmm is how you are so quick to jump in on a topic you know absolutely nothing about. These banks have been in talks with United for years, and the competitive offers for 2.5 billion in exit financing were well documented in the first months of this year. Now they are talking 3 billion, but "all of a sudden" doesn't apply. To say United didn't have a business plan is probably the most nonsensical thing I've seen on this board. It is easy for me to see because I have watched it unfold as an insider for the past couple of years, but even a casual observer should be able to note the differences in where the planes are flying, what planes are flying, the performance based incentive programs, the cost reductions, the different mgt structure, on and on. One could argue about the viability of the plan. Obviously the financial institutions providing the competitive bids are looking at the viability of the plan - analyzing United's operating numbers over the past several months while jet fuel has been so high, and projecting performance post ch11.
As I said, your analysis of the pension ordeal was so off base and far out it was comical, as are your present comments.
Last edited:
" I hope no one goes through what we did."
Well, TWA did and very few had kind words or feelings of support for them. Many more will follow and the bodies will continue to pile up.
Once you go through the process, it alters your perspective of how you see things in life.
Best of luck to all.............
Well, TWA did and very few had kind words or feelings of support for them. Many more will follow and the bodies will continue to pile up.
Once you go through the process, it alters your perspective of how you see things in life.
Best of luck to all.............
Mugs said:
This is a true statement and UALs relentless undercutting of F9s' market share doesn't help. It is a fact the Airbi are heavily backloaded, but that is about to change with the latest addition of 200 FA's. Not a single wide-reciever in the lot, all tight-ends! UAL has always met and surpassed their competitors ability to put out and give great service, I just don't want to hop on TED and ride him all the way to San Francisco.
Last edited:
skykid]What makes me go hummmm is how you are so quick to jump in on a topic you know absolutely nothing about. These banks have been in talks with United for years, and the competitive offers for 2.5 billion in exit financing were well documented in the first months of this year.
Really, Please provide us with some of this "well documented" data from last Jan or Feb stating that bank were willing to loan UAL $3 billion. UAL has been in Ch11 for years of coarse they have been talking to banks for years. If the money was there why don't we have an exit date yet?
Now they are talking 3 billion, but "all of a sudden" doesn't apply.
Why, no one was running to lend money to UAL last month?
To say United didn't have a business plan is probably the most nonsensical thing I've seen on this board.
Now I know you are full of it, anyone can do a quick Google search, Just type in United Airlines Business plan" one of the first to pop up was this:
"While the financing is not yet final, UAL Corp. hailed the revised proposals as a strong endorsement of the new business plan it formulated this summer even as the steep increase in fuel prices continues to squeeze carriers' bottom lines."
http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dsbiz/261bd5.htm
Plenty of links on google all saying the samething.
The last time I checked we are still in the end of August which is This Summer"! So what business plan have they had formulated for the past 32 months? Certianly not one that any bank was willing to lend billions to. Lets be honest here they don't even have it figures out yet that why the judge gave UAL it's final notice, they have until 11/ to determine a final exit plan, their will be no more extensions.
It is easy for me to see because I have watched it unfold as an insider for the past couple of years, but even a casual observer should be able to note the differences in where the planes are flying, what planes are flying, the performance based incentive programs, the cost reductions, the different mgt structure, on and on. One could argue about the viability of the plan. Obviously the financial institutions providing the competitive bids are looking at the viability of the plan - analyzing United's operating numbers over the past several months while jet fuel has been so high, and projecting performance post ch11.
As I said, your analysis of the pension ordeal was so off base and far out it was comical, as are your present comments.
I don't think anyone here feels that what UAL did with pensions was comical. Nov 1 is right around the corner, you seem to have faith in you mgt. More power to you. Let's hope you are correct
[/QUOTE]
Really, Please provide us with some of this "well documented" data from last Jan or Feb stating that bank were willing to loan UAL $3 billion. UAL has been in Ch11 for years of coarse they have been talking to banks for years. If the money was there why don't we have an exit date yet?
Now they are talking 3 billion, but "all of a sudden" doesn't apply.
Why, no one was running to lend money to UAL last month?
To say United didn't have a business plan is probably the most nonsensical thing I've seen on this board.
Now I know you are full of it, anyone can do a quick Google search, Just type in United Airlines Business plan" one of the first to pop up was this:
"While the financing is not yet final, UAL Corp. hailed the revised proposals as a strong endorsement of the new business plan it formulated this summer even as the steep increase in fuel prices continues to squeeze carriers' bottom lines."
http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dsbiz/261bd5.htm
Plenty of links on google all saying the samething.
The last time I checked we are still in the end of August which is This Summer"! So what business plan have they had formulated for the past 32 months? Certianly not one that any bank was willing to lend billions to. Lets be honest here they don't even have it figures out yet that why the judge gave UAL it's final notice, they have until 11/ to determine a final exit plan, their will be no more extensions.
It is easy for me to see because I have watched it unfold as an insider for the past couple of years, but even a casual observer should be able to note the differences in where the planes are flying, what planes are flying, the performance based incentive programs, the cost reductions, the different mgt structure, on and on. One could argue about the viability of the plan. Obviously the financial institutions providing the competitive bids are looking at the viability of the plan - analyzing United's operating numbers over the past several months while jet fuel has been so high, and projecting performance post ch11.
As I said, your analysis of the pension ordeal was so off base and far out it was comical, as are your present comments.
I don't think anyone here feels that what UAL did with pensions was comical. Nov 1 is right around the corner, you seem to have faith in you mgt. More power to you. Let's hope you are correct
[/QUOTE]
AA717driver
A simpler time...
- Joined
- Mar 27, 2003
- Posts
- 4,908
Just as being in Ch.11 and up to their a$$ in angry creditors doesn't mean a company is doomed, receiving exit financing doesn't assure a successful recovery.
It doesn't matter if UAL has an exit plan or not--conditions change with the wind and plans are worthless as soon as they are committed to paper.
The UAL employees who have a few years left before retirement have had their lives turned upside down. They are scrambling to figure out where their next source of income will be after mandatory retirement at 60 (since it doesn't look like that's going anywhere soon). Those with a long time to go at UAL will spend the rest of their careers looking over their shoulder wondering where the next crisis will come from.
You might as well get a subscription to the WSJ because you will open it to the index of companies every day to see if UAL is in there. You'll keep up on the price of fuel and look at competitor's ads to see what they are charging. You'll bust your butts to save fuel only to see the savings pi$$ed away by management on some stupid scheme or program to a.) gain customers b.) retain frequent flyers or c.) improve employee morale through team building...blah, blah, blah.
Welcome to the world of the shaky airline. It's not temporary and the chances of another Continental happening are slim. Better get comfortable with the above circumstances.
Oh yeah, just wait till you're on the jumpseat and the JetBlue guys are lecturing you on dragging down the industry! Haaaaahaaaahaaaa!
Yep. It's cold out there.TC
It doesn't matter if UAL has an exit plan or not--conditions change with the wind and plans are worthless as soon as they are committed to paper.
The UAL employees who have a few years left before retirement have had their lives turned upside down. They are scrambling to figure out where their next source of income will be after mandatory retirement at 60 (since it doesn't look like that's going anywhere soon). Those with a long time to go at UAL will spend the rest of their careers looking over their shoulder wondering where the next crisis will come from.
You might as well get a subscription to the WSJ because you will open it to the index of companies every day to see if UAL is in there. You'll keep up on the price of fuel and look at competitor's ads to see what they are charging. You'll bust your butts to save fuel only to see the savings pi$$ed away by management on some stupid scheme or program to a.) gain customers b.) retain frequent flyers or c.) improve employee morale through team building...blah, blah, blah.
Welcome to the world of the shaky airline. It's not temporary and the chances of another Continental happening are slim. Better get comfortable with the above circumstances.
Oh yeah, just wait till you're on the jumpseat and the JetBlue guys are lecturing you on dragging down the industry! Haaaaahaaaahaaaa!
Yep. It's cold out there.TCCHICAGO, Feb 14, 2005 (AP Online via COMTEX) -- United Airlines said Monday it has received four offers of debt financing worth as much as $2.5 billion to help the nation's No. 2 carrier emerge from bankruptcy......
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/ne...FEE19C348EF1%7D
That WAS the link from Feb 14, which was the first time I saw any bank publically come out and say they were willing to give us anything. There might have been something sooner, but I didn't see it if they did. Someone else might have a link. Unfortunately, it was cut off after the "ne." That was the first sentence though, above the link.
Update 1: United Gets Four Offers of Debt Financing
02.14.2005, 11:07 PM
United Airlines said Monday it has received four offers of debt financing worth as much as $2.5 billion to help the nation's No. 2 carrier emerge from bankruptcy.
United spokeswoman Jean Medina would not say which financial institutions had made the offers and said there was no schedule for when any final deal might be reached. Moreover, any such agreement would be based upon United realizing the $2.5 billion in cost savings the carrier has already laid out, she said.
There's another but I don't have a link unfortunately. Sorry!
References to "new" business plans existed because things were changing so rapidly that the "old" one no longer applied!
http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/ne...FEE19C348EF1%7D
That WAS the link from Feb 14, which was the first time I saw any bank publically come out and say they were willing to give us anything. There might have been something sooner, but I didn't see it if they did. Someone else might have a link. Unfortunately, it was cut off after the "ne." That was the first sentence though, above the link.
Update 1: United Gets Four Offers of Debt Financing
02.14.2005, 11:07 PM
United Airlines said Monday it has received four offers of debt financing worth as much as $2.5 billion to help the nation's No. 2 carrier emerge from bankruptcy.
United spokeswoman Jean Medina would not say which financial institutions had made the offers and said there was no schedule for when any final deal might be reached. Moreover, any such agreement would be based upon United realizing the $2.5 billion in cost savings the carrier has already laid out, she said.
There's another but I don't have a link unfortunately. Sorry!
References to "new" business plans existed because things were changing so rapidly that the "old" one no longer applied!
Last edited:
skykid
On Point
- Joined
- Jan 24, 2002
- Posts
- 759
You have a little trouble with reading comprehension.
What I said was comical was YOUR analysis of the pension situation, to including your insistance that the PBGC could and would actually liquidate United. Remember that thread where other posters (not me) were commenting on how nonsensical your posts were? That's what I'm talking about, and you know it.
I never said banks were willing to loan United 3 billion last Jan or Feb. What I said was "and the competitive offers for 2.5 billion in exit financing were well documented in the first months of this year." I heard that straight from mgt and also read it in United's hubs newspaper business sections. This is the same thing ualdriver posted on this thread - he may be right that it was somewhere between 2-2.5 billion. No I wont find it for you. If you did some research yourself you would know more. I don't believe anything I read and only about half of what I hear or actually see, so luckily I'm smart enough to realize these deals were contigent on a lot of issues - like the lease battle that just got resolved.
You would have to be a real dumb$ss to think United just formulated a business plan this Summer. Obviously a lot of things fell into place this Summer, but the business plan has been in affect and part of an ongoing process for several years. If you want to get caught up in when documents are filed and the semantics of calling additions "a new business plan," that really shows your level of comprehension. There are formal documents that include scheduling and notices of details that must be filed that have little to do with WHEN the actual business plan was formulated.
What I said was comical was YOUR analysis of the pension situation, to including your insistance that the PBGC could and would actually liquidate United. Remember that thread where other posters (not me) were commenting on how nonsensical your posts were? That's what I'm talking about, and you know it.
I never said banks were willing to loan United 3 billion last Jan or Feb. What I said was "and the competitive offers for 2.5 billion in exit financing were well documented in the first months of this year." I heard that straight from mgt and also read it in United's hubs newspaper business sections. This is the same thing ualdriver posted on this thread - he may be right that it was somewhere between 2-2.5 billion. No I wont find it for you. If you did some research yourself you would know more. I don't believe anything I read and only about half of what I hear or actually see, so luckily I'm smart enough to realize these deals were contigent on a lot of issues - like the lease battle that just got resolved.
You would have to be a real dumb$ss to think United just formulated a business plan this Summer. Obviously a lot of things fell into place this Summer, but the business plan has been in affect and part of an ongoing process for several years. If you want to get caught up in when documents are filed and the semantics of calling additions "a new business plan," that really shows your level of comprehension. There are formal documents that include scheduling and notices of details that must be filed that have little to do with WHEN the actual business plan was formulated.
skykid
On Point
- Joined
- Jan 24, 2002
- Posts
- 759
ualdriver said:
Linky no work, but I'll take you word on it.
Thanks for digging it up.
The research that I came up with stated that those loans were ALL predicated upon cost cut, wage cuts and pension reform. The loans were offered but the lenders were well aware that UAL could not comply with the terms (as of the begining of the year).
Your quote about the business plan is dead on accurate. Everytime I turn around it's the new plan. My concern is that UAL mgt got wind of the judges verdict, no more extensions beyond 11/1. Which forced them to come out with another New Plan.
The timing is kind of suspect. Thursday they announce they have a $3 billon dollar loan and friday the judge says, no more extensions.
Share this page
Latest resources
-
-
-
-
-
AC 90-89C - Amateur-Built Aircraft and Ultralight Flight Testing HandbookAmateur-Built Aircraft and Ultralight Flight Testing Handbook
- Neal
- Updated:
