Attn. United Haters

[wxman13]

Ok, I sort of glazed over looking at all that math up there. What I want to know is, can United actually provide a quality service to pax with their new business plan? I know it's all speculation for now, but the last few times I've flown UAL, things have been anything but friendly. Morale seems very low among ticket and gate agents and FAs, and for way more than Jet Blue, SWA, or whatever, they are barely serving drinks anymore. Although the adjustable headrests and Ch. 9 (as always) are nice. I want the danm lemon-scented towels to come back.

 

[G4G5]

I think this is where it gets confusing, it's not as simple as a little Johnny adding up apples story I know that's what got under my skin

Unrestricted cash is money under the mattress = Apples

Restricted cash- can be a variety of things (see USAir and the ATSB), one thing it's not is cash under the mattres= Oranges

A $3 billion dollar loan from Citi or whomever needs to be repaid, is not cash under the mattress - Lemons

What no one here has mentioned is what Tilton is offering up as collateral? You don't go to a bank with out anything to offer. No one here actually thinks that the banks are lending it on the strength of UAL's ballance sheet and their brand new exit plan?
What is he offering this month that has 4 banks running? He has to be offering something good, heck they are even offering $500 million more then what he initially wanted.

IMHO he feels the pressure to secure exit financing quickly, he fully realizes that within the next 60 days 2 of his major competitors will be competing with the very same banks for financing.

Does his new business plan take into account the fact that he will no longer have a competitive advantage. Once the other majors go CH11, the pressure will be on every union to lower the bar even further and they will. What about oil? The days of $45 dollar a barrel are long gone.

The real problem occurs if he has to re-enter ch11. Once the new laws go into effect on Oct 17, companies entering Ch11 only have 18 months to exit before creditors can force liquidation.

 

[Mugs]

After bending over everybody who had good faith agreements with it (and some of our posters are proud to be bent.) Untied pulls off a small (relative to revenue) profit (after three years in CH11) in the best Q and month of the year. YEHAAAA!

When (if) UAL does come out of BK, and sells their product for more than it costs to produce everybody who doesn't work for UAL will be happy. IMHO.

Spin it anyway you like - Figures don't lie, but liers figure. (gosh I like old sayings.)

When Uncle Gordo takes over I'll take Untied seriously. Till then I'm just happy they are the only ones on B.

Am I wrong in assuming that F9 is "selling their product" right now for less than it will cost in the near future? Your Airbus leases are heavily back-loaded as I understand it. It seems to me that as the true Airbus lease costs begin to kick in, F9 will see further erosion in cost advantages over the UAL competition. I am not trying to spar with you, just wondering if their is any validity to this line of reasoning.

 

[ualdriver]

A $3 billion dolar loan from Citi or whomever is not cash under the mattres, it needs to be paid back - Lemons

What no one here has mentioned is what Tilton is offering up as collateral? You don't go to a bank with out anything to offer. No one here actually thinks that the banks are lending it on the strength of UAL's ballance sheet and their brand new exit plan?
What is he offering this month that has 4 banks running? He has to be offering something good, heck they are even offering $500 million more then what he initially wanted.

IMHO he feels the pressure to secure exit financing quickly, the fully realizes that within the next 60 days 2 of his major competitors will be competing with the very same banks for financing.

There's no doubt that this 3B is going to cost UAL a few hundred million a year just in interest payments and it has to be paid off. But for airlines being the highly leveraged, cash flow generating machines they are, that's just the way world turns for all of us.

I don't know if we'll know what exactly is being used for collateral. Maybe that kind of info can be obtained from the bankruptcy court filings when it is released. We do have collateral, as that is how we obtained DIP financing. Unlike a Delta Airlines, for example, that has little or no collateral for DIP financing. Wait to see what interest rate they'll be paying for DIP financing if they unfortunately enter bankruptcy. Anyway, perhaps that collateral will be reused, along with whatever we have left after having renegotiated almost all of our debt. And, of course, I'm sure these banks might receive one or two (or thousands) of newly minted stock certificates in our newly organized UAL. Not to mention that the interest rate we'll probably be charged might be a "little" higher than 10 year T-bills

You gotta look at it from the banks' point of view as well. Interest rates are low (i.e. they want to make money on the money they loan), so they'll get cash from interest at least a little higher in the airline business then they'll get elsewhere if they had loaned the money to a "real" company (he-he), they will have some sort of collateral and will be first in line again if UAL were to enter Chapter 11 again for some unknown reason. Two of our major competitors are either going to go into bankruptcy or will struggle along if they don't and UAL will benefit from that just like they did when we entered bankruptcy, and they know that no matter what oil prices do, the airlines HAVE TO start charging fares to cover their costs, which they are slowly starting to do. If they don't, they'll be forced to when they enter CH 11. To the short to intermediate term, it doesn't look that bad for UAL. Even the effects of cost cutting have not fully taken effect yet. Long term at UAL is anyone's guess.

P.S. I have nothing, zero, nada against Delta. I'm just using them for an example as I've been following their situation almost as closely as ours and I'm more familiar with their numbers. I hope no one goes through what we did.

 

[Metro752]

This is an old one but,

Q: Anyone know where United flies the 747 domestic?

A: Yeah, ORD-VCV, DEN-VCV, IAD-VCV, SFO-VCV, JFK-VCV. Bahahahahaha

 

[skykid]

Last month UAL did not have an exit plan, this month they do? And all of a sudden 4 large banks come running to lend billions? Things that make you go hummmm.

What makes me go hummmm is how you are so quick to jump in on a topic you know absolutely nothing about. These banks have been in talks with United for years, and the competitive offers for 2.5 billion in exit financing were well documented in the first months of this year. Now they are talking 3 billion, but "all of a sudden" doesn't apply. To say United didn't have a business plan is probably the most nonsensical thing I've seen on this board. It is easy for me to see because I have watched it unfold as an insider for the past couple of years, but even a casual observer should be able to note the differences in where the planes are flying, what planes are flying, the performance based incentive programs, the cost reductions, the different mgt structure, on and on. One could argue about the viability of the plan. Obviously the financial institutions providing the competitive bids are looking at the viability of the plan - analyzing United's operating numbers over the past several months while jet fuel has been so high, and projecting performance post ch11.

As I said, your analysis of the pension ordeal was so off base and far out it was comical, as are your present comments.

 

[skykid]

This is an old one but,

Q: Anyone know where United flies the 747 domestic?

A: Yeah, ORD-VCV, DEN-VCV, IAD-VCV, SFO-VCV, JFK-VCV. Bahahahahaha

Right, it would be a lot more fun to just fly little Boeings and Buses around North America.

 

[B6Driver]

" I hope no one goes through what we did."
Well, TWA did and very few had kind words or feelings of support for them. Many more will follow and the bodies will continue to pile up.
Once you go through the process, it alters your perspective of how you see things in life.
Best of luck to all.............

 

[crashpad]

Am I wrong in assuming that F9 is "selling their product" right now for less than it will cost in the near future? Your Airbus leases are heavily back-loaded as I understand it. It seems to me that as the true Airbus lease costs begin to kick in, F9 will see further erosion in cost advantages over the UAL competition. I am not trying to spar with you, just wondering if their is any validity to this line of reasoning.

This is a true statement and UALs relentless undercutting of F9s' market share doesn't help. It is a fact the Airbi are heavily backloaded, but that is about to change with the latest addition of 200 FA's. Not a single wide-reciever in the lot, all tight-ends! UAL has always met and surpassed their competitors ability to put out and give great service, I just don't want to hop on TED and ride him all the way to San Francisco.

 

[G4G5]

skykid]What makes me go hummmm is how you are so quick to jump in on a topic you know absolutely nothing about. These banks have been in talks with United for years, and the competitive offers for 2.5 billion in exit financing were well documented in the first months of this year.

Really, Please provide us with some of this "well documented" data from last Jan or Feb stating that bank were willing to loan UAL $3 billion. UAL has been in Ch11 for years of coarse they have been talking to banks for years. If the money was there why don't we have an exit date yet?

Now they are talking 3 billion, but "all of a sudden" doesn't apply.
Why, no one was running to lend money to UAL last month?

To say United didn't have a business plan is probably the most nonsensical thing I've seen on this board.

Now I know you are full of it, anyone can do a quick Google search, Just type in United Airlines Business plan" one of the first to pop up was this:
"While the financing is not yet final, UAL Corp. hailed the revised proposals as a strong endorsement of the new business plan it formulated this summer even as the steep increase in fuel prices continues to squeeze carriers' bottom lines."
http://www.dailysouthtown.com/southtown/dsbiz/261bd5.htm

Plenty of links on google all saying the samething.

The last time I checked we are still in the end of August which is This Summer"! So what business plan have they had formulated for the past 32 months? Certianly not one that any bank was willing to lend billions to. Lets be honest here they don't even have it figures out yet that why the judge gave UAL it's final notice, they have until 11/ to determine a final exit plan, their will be no more extensions.

It is easy for me to see because I have watched it unfold as an insider for the past couple of years, but even a casual observer should be able to note the differences in where the planes are flying, what planes are flying, the performance based incentive programs, the cost reductions, the different mgt structure, on and on. One could argue about the viability of the plan. Obviously the financial institutions providing the competitive bids are looking at the viability of the plan - analyzing United's operating numbers over the past several months while jet fuel has been so high, and projecting performance post ch11.

As I said, your analysis of the pension ordeal was so off base and far out it was comical, as are your present comments.

I don't think anyone here feels that what UAL did with pensions was comical. Nov 1 is right around the corner, you seem to have faith in you mgt. More power to you. Let's hope you are correct

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