Astar a black hole?

[two(2)%]

Is Astar being positioned for a possible Asset purchase? John do*sheberg of Astar has insisted that his intentions are to purchase all existing Astar aircraft, buy partial ABX assets and fullfill his "ABX cleansing" prophecy. Instead Astar bought just twenty common remaining types (727) which, coincidentally, is the number of aircraft Joe Hete of ABX mentioned he would require to fly the entire DHL US network. We all agree that two airlines in the DHL network is cost prohibitive in the long run. Mergers won't solve the cost problem either. anyone care to posit any additional scenarios? Too much existential angst here.

 

[shooter]

Is Astar being positioned for a possible Asset purchase? John do*sheberg of Astar has insisted that his intentions are to purchase all existing Astar aircraft, buy partial ABX assets and fullfill his "ABX cleansing" prophecy. Instead Astar bought just twenty common remaining types (727) which, coincidentally, is the number of aircraft Joe Hete of ABX mentioned he would require to fly the entire DHL US network. We all agree that two airlines in the DHL network is cost prohibitive in the long run. Mergers won't solve the cost problem either. anyone care to posit any additional scenarios? Too much existential angst here.

I doubt ABX would want 727's. But anything is possible I guess.

 

[TWA]

I thought AStar bought out leases on 20 airplanes they currently fly, not 20 new airplanes....

Yep, no new aircraft, just a new owner. Astar finally can call a part of their fleet their own.

Dumb question: What is DHL doing with the old facility at CVG? Is it just sitting vacant?

 

[AV8OR]

They use it for some logistical stuff down at CVG. Other than that, just the ramp space for parked A/C.

Here's one for ya.....

I don't think JD's gonna buy jack. I do think he's getting us ready to sell. My money is on Polar/Atlas. BTW, just my opinion, not really a rumor, but it is based on a variety of pieces of what I think is the big puzzle. I think that's a primary reason for the contract stalling.

Fire at will.

 

[bvt1151]

DHL will go with whatever has "A" containers. The "C" containers are costing way too much money.

 

[356emain]

That is interesting about the "c" container. I was told that all 767's that haul c's will have the belly conversion done by summer 2007. Eight have already been done, and i beleive they carry the "L" container. I don't see those airplanes going anywhere anytime soon.

 

[goastar]

I think it goes something like, wish in one hand, crap in the other. Nice thought.

They use it for some logistical stuff down at CVG. Other than that, just the ramp space for parked A/C.

Here's one for ya.....

I don't think JD's gonna buy jack. I do think he's getting us ready to sell. My money is on Polar/Atlas. BTW, just my opinion, not really a rumor, but it is based on a variety of pieces of what I think is the big puzzle. I think that's a primary reason for the contract stalling.

Fire at will.

 

[AV8OR]

I think it goes something like, wish in one hand, crap in the other. Nice thought.

I suppose it's better than the likely alternative.

T

 

[goastar]

Much mo better.

I suppose it's better than the likely alternative.

T

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

Grooming for resale makes some sense, and could account for the stalled contract. My understanding is that Astar is on a cost-plus basis with DHL. At the conclusion of that agreement, DHL will no doubt be playing a very hard game of hardball with Astar. In other words, there's no reason not to pass costs along to DHL now, because they're not going to be a lucrative customer for Astar (or anybody else) in the future. Especially at their present size. In other words, Astar might as well $crew 'em now, because they're going to be $crewing Astar in 5 years.

Likewise, the pilots might as well get all they can now, because in 5 years, they'll be bidding against companies that will work for (and pay their employees at) half the rates curently in effect.

Labor costs can have a tremendous multiplier-effect on the net worth of a company, especially a company like Astar which exists largely on paper only. The value of such an organization is not in it's equipment (most of which would be parked in the desert if not for DHL) or it's operating certificate (common and easily attainable) but it's future contracts. Every dollar they can shave from the next labor contract will be worth at least 5 over the course of the next 5 years. Meaning that every single dollar they can shave from the next contract equals 2 or 3 in Dasburg's pocket when he sells. No wonder he's so reluctant to give them up...

What's the longest period of time JD has ever headed a company, anyway?

 

[erichartmann]

DHL will go with whatever has "A" containers. The "C" containers are costing way too much money.

There are plans to convert the PC ("C" container) 767's to "A" container. Look for this to happen as soon as all of the current pax to cargo mods are done if ABX doesn't buy any more 767's for conversion.

 

[Bitter]

Are they looking for replacement equipment for the 9, or just more 767's?

Are they getting ready to announce more 76's? Or park more 9's?

 

[erichartmann]

Are they looking for replacement equipment for the 9, or just more 767's?

Are they getting ready to announce more 76's? Or park more 9's?

I was told Hete knows he needs to find a replacement for the 9. No word on when or what.

Rumor's about more 767's continue to float around. No real hard info though.

 

[rotor&wing]

I was told Hete knows he needs to find a replacement for the 9. No word on when or what.

Rumor's about more 767's continue to float around. No real hard info though.

The wide body market has dried up, and I doubt Hete and Co are willing to pay top dollar even if they can find them.............

New life for older airplanes

Shortage of wide-body jets raising values, driving up price for leasing

By Julie Johnsson
Tribune staff reporter
Published December 3, 2006

The Boeing 767, America's 25-year-old workhorse plane, was supposed to be obsolete, headed for a dusty desert parking space, otherwise known as aviation's scrap heap.

But a global shortage of wide-body aircraft, and the recent production and design problems involving two yet to be launched Airbus wide-bodies, has turned the hulking 767 and other old models into hot commodities, even as Chicago-based Boeing Co. mulls shutting down its 767 production line.

Lease rates paid by airlines for some used 767s have more than doubled, to about $550,000 per month, and there isn't a single plane in the 767-300 series available for rent worldwide, according to Back Aviation Solutions, which tracks the global aircraft market.

"If you had this real firm desire to lease a 767 tomorrow, your chances are very slim," said Joe Ozimek, managing director of asset management with Boeing Capital Corp., the aircraft manufacturer's financing arm.

It's not just the 767. Boeing's venerable 747 jumbo jets and Airbus' popular A330 aircraft are also in high demand as airlines aim to boost international routes. And the Boeing 777, the aircraft of choice for many international carriers? Forget about it.

"It's very difficult today to get your hand on airplanes," said Sheik Ahmed bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, chairman and chief executive of Emirates Airline and Emirates Group, the largest customer for Airbus' much-delayed A380 superjumbo jet. "If you want to buy 777s, there's nothing in the market."

The shortage is a byproduct of the boom in international travel and the challenges Airbus faces in launching its A380 and A350, the European planemaker's answer to Boeing's 787 Dreamliner. The first Dreamliners are to be delivered in 2008; Airbus just last week obtained financing needed for building its new A350-XWB models, which won't enter the market until the next decade.

"You've got a perfect storm right now with the delay of the A380 and the attendant delay of the A350," said Glen Langdon, president and CEO of Langdon Asset Management Inc., a San Francisco-based firm that buys and sells aircraft. "It's a significant problem."

Airlines around the world are looking for twin-aisle planes with therange to transport passengers 5,000 miles or more to far-flung cities. Such flights are lucrative since they attract more first-class and business-class travelers willing to pay premiums.

Carriers like Singapore Airlines and Emirates, which planned to add the first A380s to their fleets this year, are scrambling to find other planes after delivery deadlines for the double-decker plane were pushed back three times.

To help offset delays for the 45 A380s it is slated to purchase, Dubai-based Emirates is shopping for 777s.

"I think we managed so far to get something like six aircraft to come in `08," said Sheik Ahmed. "That's not enough capacity."

Singapore Airlines has signed short-term leases for 19 A330 aircraft to "address the capacity shortfall" caused by delays to the 19 A380s it ordered, said spokesman James Boyd.

Etihad Airways, another Persian Gulf-region carrier, also is finding it difficult to find large jets to make up for the four A380s it was to receive in 2008.

"We haven't really solved the issue," said Geert Boven, vice president, commercial, with the Abu Dhabi-based airline.

Some airlines are extending leases on planes they had planned to drop from their fleets in order to get by until the latest Boeing and Airbus craft hit the market, industry experts and airline officials say.

The mad scramble for jets is a reversal of the market following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

As a result of reduced demand for travel, U.S. carriers parked hundreds of aircraft in the California and Arizona deserts. United Airlines and other carriers also shed hundreds of aircraft through bankruptcy reorganizations.

As recently as January 2003 there were 267 wide-body jets available across the globe for lease or sale, according to Connecticut-based Back Aviation. But by last month, only 99 such planes were on the market. Of those, only two 777s and three A330s of the preferred models were available.

Such shortages are likely to continue for three to five years, until the latest Boeing and Airbus jets roll off production lines in large numbers, said Gueric Dechavanne, director of valuation services for Connecticut-based Back Aviation.

That could pose a problem for recovering U.S. carriers, which largely have sat out of the global aircraft market in recent years.

Elk Grove Township-based United Airlines, for example, has no immediate plans to add planes to its fleet while it focuses on executing its post-bankruptcy business plan, said spokeswoman Jean Medina.

But United likely will encounter the same problems as other carriers if and when it decides to buy more aircraft equipped to fly trans-continental routes.

"They're in an interesting situation where there [are none] out there," said Dechavanne.

Leasing companies, too, are finding it difficult to track down planes to add to their fleets.

Take the 767. Three years ago, Harold Kugelman said he didn't have any problem finding mint-condition 767s sought by customers. He also didn't have to worry much about competitors snapping up jets he wanted.

That's no longer the case.

"Where a couple of people might be bidding on an airplane, now you could find five or six or more," said Kugelman, who as general manager for AAR Aircraft Sales and Leasing scours the globe for used planes for parent AAR Corp.

"The demand for aircraft is at an all-time high," said John Johnson, group vice president in charge of sales and leasing at Wood Dale-based AAR.

Meanwhile, Boeing's production lines for the 787 and 777, the most sought-after planes for long-distance travel, are sold out for the next several years.

But Boeing officials say there is some wiggle room.

"We're sometimes able to work people in," said Boeing spokesman Tim Neal.

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[email protected]


Copyright © 2006, Chicago Tribune

 

[erichartmann]

The wide body market has dried up, and I doubt Hete and Co are willing to pay top dollar even if they can find them.............

New life for older airplanes

Shortage of wide-body jets raising values, driving up price for leasing

I've seen that. If the price is up, and lift is scarce it means they command more income. Whether or not that justifies the higher cost to purchase/lease rermains to be seen, or even if any can be found. I've heard ABX has first right of refusal on virtually every -200. In any event, it means that the current PC aircraft become better candidates for doors and floors. All told, once the 12 Delta 767's are all converted and delivered we'll have 42 in service. 17 will have doors and floors, the rest will have "C" containers and by summer '07 the bellies of all those will be able to take LD3's. Might also be a good time to line up the -9 replacement and get them in service.

 

[shooter]

I was told Hete knows he needs to find a replacement for the 9. No word on when or what.

Rumor's about more 767's continue to float around. No real hard info though.

since FedEx is in the 90 757 addition, the price on them are too high right now. Shame since it was a natural fit for ABX. Maybe the 737 will replace the 9's? But something needs to be done for ABX to survive in the ACMI world.

 

[Bitter]

I heard the eight will be done in 1Q..........and more 9's

 

[xspud]

I heard the eight will be done in 1Q..........and more 9's

I've heard 4 eight's come up for C-check in 2007 and 1 in 2008. With 6(?) 767's arriving in same time frame people I've talked to are expecting the last eight to go in 1Q 2008. Of course, there's also a rumor of C-checks planned for a couple of them.

 

[erichartmann]

I've heard 4 eight's come up for C-check in 2007 and 1 in 2008. With 6(?) 767's arriving in same time frame people I've talked to are expecting the last eight to go in 1Q 2008. Of course, there's also a rumor of C-checks planned for a couple of them.

If availability/price of 767's for purchase/conversion makes them less than desirable we may see some of those -8's getting C checks. Time will tell. We'll be the last to know.

 

[Bitter]

Anybody know what will happen to the A300? Any chance it will stay?