Another Great Month for LUV

[AJWick]

All right guys, how about taking us out of this pool. Looks like you all are kicking butt!!!
aj



Dow Jones Business News
Southwest Air Sept Traffic Rose 10.6%
Thursday October 2, 10:07 am ET


DALLAS (Dow Jones)--Southwest Airlines Co. said September traffic rose 10.6% to 3.6 billion revenue passenger miles from 3.3 billion last year.
A revenue passenger mile is one paying passenger flown one mile.

In a press release Thursday, the airline said load factor for the month rose to 60.4% from 56.8% a year ago.

For the third quarter, Southwest said traffic increased 7.7% to 12.8 billion revenue passenger miles from 11.9 billion, while load factor rose to 70.5% from 67.7% last year.

For the nine months ended Sept. 30, Southwest Airlines traffic rose 5.7% to 36.3 billion revenue passenger miles from 34.3 billion, and load factor increased to 67.8% from 66.9% last year.

New York Stock Exchange (News - Websites)-listed shares of Southwest were recently trading up 16 cents at $18.18. The stock hit a 52-week high of $18.99 on Sept. 16, and traded at 52-week low of $11.23 Oct. 10.

Company Web site: http://www.southwest.com

 

[HOUMAN]

OK, that's 2 quarters in a row that were relatively "outstanding".

For anyone "in the know", how do bookings look for October, November and December??

 

[lowecur]

Better than a year ago, but still a losing month for WN with BELF close to 64%.

 

[canyonblue]

Better than a year ago, but still a losing month for WN with BELF close to 64%.

It's not 64%

 

[lowecur]

canyon

Please let me know what you believe it is, and how you arrived at that number?

 

[lowecur]

Let me give you my response on what the BELF could be. The last quarter reported showed RPM @11.67, and CASM @7.59. Both are going down as WN adds more coast to coast departures.

BELF=CASM/RPM. For the 2nd Quarter BELF was 65%.

If the above numbers are close to the 2nd quarter numbers, then my guess of 64% is very close (in fact conservative). It was not a great month for WN, but definitely better than 09/02. Both were losing months for WN.

The only way to remedy this situtation is to have higher revenue growth than capacity growth. If capacity will grow 10% per year, then revenue growth needs to outpace this for a higher profit. The preceding is all based on no increases in expenses, which may not happen if a new FA contract is reached. Also, a new pilot TA will be pending in 06.

 

[firstthird]

I'm just an ex-military guy who isn't in the show yet, so can someone enlighten me, what is BELF?

And Lowecur, what does SWA BELF have to do with them having to get EMB-190s to keep up with the Airtrans and jetBlues? sorry, couldn't resist.

oh wait, I think maybe I figured it out, break even load factor? I would suspect that is not for public consumption and if they aren't making BELF then how are they consistently recording profitable quarters (albeit not extremely busting the bank profitable, of course compared to most of the rest that are putting hundreds of millions in the red each quarter, even a 35 million in the black looks nice)

 

[lowecur]

1st

Your right, WN is continuing to make money in a very tough market. Yes, they will continue to make money on an annual basis for the next few years.

Being an ex military guy has it's advantages as long as you remember to blow the canopy and keep your helmet on.

 

[lowecur]

So you couldn't resist the 190 jab?

It's gonna happen, and I think sooner than you think. Herb had a great vision for the future, and I think Mr. Parker is not as myopic and rigid as some would believe. A CEO needs to be able to change as the industry changes, and Mr. Parker as seen the light. The same business plan will not work forever. Colleen Barrett has worked wonders with the employee groups at LUV, but even she is starting to show cracks in her relationships with employee groups. She's a wonderful lady, but there are certain factions that want better wages and work rules instead of "family" talk. Welcome to the world of corporate greed.

 

[canyonblue]

Re: canyon

Please let me know what you believe it is, and how you arrived at that number?

I could tell you, but then I'd have to kill you.

 

[lowecur]

canyon

Are you one of those blow-up FO's? I hope so, because I'd feel much safer with him than you at the stick.

 

[Rob Beeks]

BELF

Firstthird

BELF refers to "break-even load factor" i.e., how many seats must be filled in order to break-even. Load factors above BELF typically ensure profitability.

BELF is a constantly changing number due to changing fares and costs.

For example: some legacy airlines had high load factors earlier this year, yet still lost money due to a combination of high CASM (cost per average seat mile) and lower revenue streams from lower fares.

Low fare airlines (e.g., SWA, jetBlue, AirTran) usually show a lower BELF because their CASM is lower than the legacy airlines (US Airways, UAL, American, et al).

What you are all witnessing right now is a dramatic change in the domestic airline industry as legacy airlines strive to reduce CASM in response to lower revenue streams. This was inevitable regardless of 9/11.