And the good news continues to roll for this profession

[Crash Pad]

Just out of curiosity not too many countries have the mass of pilots the US has. So they will have to grab a chunk of pilots from here. I know we won't get paid much, benefits will be crap, etc... My question is will national airlines allow hiring of Americans, citizenship, etc?
Question 2. Delta I think had a big plan... International flying will save the day I think it was. Is this the end of Delta?

 

[Clyde]

Forgive me for not bringing politics into this. i.e., who voted for who.

First, I wouldn't be too worried about Ryanair and Lufthansa coming in here and competing on high-traffic domestic routes. More than likely, you will see someone like Air France or BA allowed to continue service from one major airport to another. i.e., JFK-LAX.

On the other hand, the same rights will be given to U.S. carriers flying abroad, with those flights being allowed to continue intra-Europe.

Open-skies will also open up more opportunity for the cargo airlines. Many new routes will be open overseas because of this. This equates to growth. Could foreign cargo carriers operate here? Yes, but when is the last time you shipped a letter or package on TNT Express?

All in all, I don't view open-skies as a bad thing. If it does get competitive, price isn't going to be the only factor. Service is going to be the big deal. A lot of international airlines are able to sell their product because of the level of service they provide to the customer. Personally, I am willing to pay a little extra for nicer service. Not everyone chooses a carrier based solely on price.

 

[G4G5]

Their is one in every crowd.

Right now the only divisions for legacy carriers making any money are the intl divisions. With open skies you will all but kill that. Where are those airline jobs going when they fold up? Not like in the past to another US carrier, this time they are going to the cheapest global bidder. Pay rates take another hit.

This is not about competing with the French or the British. Their are 25 EU nations that get open skies. You are now competing with Hungary and Turkey or the next lowest bidder/payer.

You think it's good for the cargo carriers? Only if you plan on arriving in the middle of the night. What will happen to places like JFK, LAX, SFO, ORD, MIA now that an unlimited number of international flights will be allowed? All this just to get a few LHR slots.

What about pay rates for cargo? With open skies you are not only competing against Fedex but any start up that feels like flying cheap freight across the pond. No more negotiated landing rights? You guys had better secure a descent SCOPE clause in you next contract or you will not only be losing China flights but Europe too.

When was the last time we used TNT? I remember 5 years ago, how many folks had ever purchased a ticket on SWA, Airtran or Jetblue?

Service will not be an issue because anyone with the means will now be flying corporate. Either a charter or in their own aircraft. Don't think so take a look at corporate jets sales forecasts and the number of Netjet aircraft (then add in all of the additional Jet Aviation, Tag, yada 135 operators). Service is only going one way with this, down hill.

 

[Groucho]

Open Skies

There are additonal items to consider. In a code-a-phone announcement yesterday Duane Worth put out information on a special section of this proposal that allows foreign carriers to fly struck work. It is currently illegal to bring in foreign nationals to fly or work struck airline work in the US. George Bush is trying to change that.

Additonally, memberstates of the EU will shop for the lowest common denominator for an operating certificate like Turkey. If you want to know that the industry could look like look at the maritime industry.

Safety initiatives, close oversight, and high operational quality will go out the window if this thing is allowed to degenerate like the maritime industry has.
It will be up to the EU to set standards.

There could even be other unforseen circustances. The NTSB is very concerned about off shore maintenance and oversight. The EU is very much tighter in it's control of outsourced maintenance. If the EU/JAA can't determine that the FAA has reliable ooversight of off shore maintenance they could ban those aircraft from the EU.

This is going to be a real nightmare.

 

[Dan Roman]

Funny it hasn't gotten much press, but about a month ago an article in our local paper pointed out the fact that last year the oil companies raised the profit margin on kerosine (jet fuel and home heating oil) resulting in increased profits equvilant to the same amount of money that the airline industry as a whole lost for the year. Keep in mind that they made a profit on kerosine the preveous year, just that last year they INCREASED their profits on kerosine by the amount the airline industry lost. Is it a coincidence that every member of Bush's Cabinet worked or has ties to the oil industry? I'm usually not much on conspiricy theories but you have to wonder. Our entire industry is being decimated and 1000's of lives are being ruined, but a select few are reaping huge profits.

 

[Clyde]

[quote=G4G5]Their is one in every crowd.

[/quote]

Right now the only divisions for legacy carriers making any money are the intl divisions. With open skies you will all but kill that.

I doubt it. The only thing that is killing the legacy carriers is poor management. A close second is the international service offered by the legacy is not as good as what a lot of international carriers offer. I'm planning a trip to Europe next year, and I am going to spend a little extra money on a European carrier because the first and business class service is excellent. You get what you pay for, and I don't mind spending a little extra cash to travel in comfort.

This is not about competing with the French or the British. Their are 25 EU nations that get open skies. You are now competing with Hungary and Turkey or the next lowest bidder/payer.

You are correct, there are 25 EU nations involved in this. Realistically, you are not going to see the "doomsday" influx of competition that many are predicting. Hungary isn't going to compete with Delta, United, etc., on every single route. You are not going to see THY come here and open up a hub and spoke system out of ORD. At the same time, U.S. legacy carriers will have a chance to compete against these and many other European carriers on their home turf. A legacy carrier can open up a small hub-and-spoke system out of a major European airport. Pan Am and TWA were successful at it in the past. The big question is this: can management teams at the legacies make it happen and make it happen successfully?

You think it's good for the cargo carriers?

I think it is really good for the cargo carriers. The growth is happening overseas, and the only thing keeping U.S. carriers out of certain countries are laws which will be obsolete because of open-skies.

What about pay rates for cargo? With open skies you are not only competing against Fedex but any start up that feels like flying cheap freight across the pond.

There is a big difference between a start-up and a large shipping conglomerate. The company in your example would have to have a ton of infrastructure in addition to airplanes to compete against FedEx. Unlike the PAX side, one cannot just go to the desert, pick up a few DC-9's and start competing agains FedEx. Apples and oranges.

You guys had better secure a descent SCOPE clause in you next contract or you will not only be losing China flights but Europe too.

Actually, open-skies will OPEN more flights for us internationally. We will be gaining them, not losing them.

I remember 5 years ago, how many folks had ever purchased a ticket on SWA, Airtran or Jetblue?

Again, apples and oranges. You cannot compare PAX and cargo. SWA, Jetblue, and Airtran are passenger airlines, not shipping conglomerates.

Service will not be an issue because anyone with the means will now be flying corporate. Either a charter or in their own aircraft.

Some of the corporate elite will be traveling more by personal jet, but the majority of the business travelers will still travel via airlines. But people like me will be looking very closely at comfort and service. And like I said before, I'm not one to only look at price and go with the cheapest one out there. I want good service and comfort, and I'm willing to pay extra for it. People like me won't be using corporate aircraft for a vacation.

 

[Dizel8]

It might be good for the Cargo carriers, I know IPA is salivating at the thought of doing those 50 or so flights in EU land, that are curently outsourced, as for the passenger carriers, it is just another stick in the coffin.

So, seems like a good deal, UPS and FDX pilot are happy, the rest of us are out of luck!