JumpJetter
Basking in LUV!
- Joined
- Nov 25, 2001
- Posts
- 356
Everyone always bashes the Boyd Group, but didn't he call some of this (IF it happens..)
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http://www.aviationplanning.com/DenverConference/conf2004fin.htm
"Small Jet Providers. Here's a forecast point missed by other conferences, and one that's miles over the head of the FAA: there is no longer a "regional airline" industry. It's gone. These operators are now SJP's - small jet providers. Today, with a few exceptions, such as EAS markets, operators such as Mesaba, Mesa, and Skywest don't have their own route systems. That's because they're not in the airline business anymore. They are in the far more demanding role of selling lift to mega-carriers - specifically, they provide small jet lift (and for the moment, some turboprop lift) to mega-carriers, operated at the direction of each mega-carrier buying the lift. The enormous ramifications of this - including the future spin-offs of SJPs now owned by mega-carriers - were covered at the conference. "
"Excess Capacity - "Regional" Jets.
Not To Mention the SJPs That Operate Them
The poorly-researched media stories on the "growth of regional jets" notwithstanding, the fact is that even today there is hardly a shortage of small jets. Along the lines of the Atlantic Coast Airlines situation, it's becoming clear that there is an emerging excess of both small jet providers and the small jets they operate. (We recognize this runs counter to the herd thinking, but that's why our conference attendees run ahead of the herd.)
As our fleet forecasts have indicated (and expressed at our conferences) for the past three years, the "RJ" demand curve would peter out in the early part of the decade, and the applications of small jets would begin to decline in the 2005 - 2007 time frame. That's what's already taking place, and, give or take a spike or two, that trend will become more pronounced in the next five years.
The ACA/United relationship is only one indication. The reduction in American operations at STL is also pointing toward some small jets looking for a home. And, interestingly, almost on cue two days after the conference, Northwest was reported to have reduced the number of jets it allows Mesaba to operate, and may entirely cancel that SJP's contract to operate jets for Northwest.
Going forward, plan on a shake-out in SJPs. The ones which can provide excellence in service at the lowest cost will survive. Those that can't will end up with fleets of RJs sitting expensively idle."
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http://www.aviationplanning.com/DenverConference/conf2004fin.htm
"Small Jet Providers. Here's a forecast point missed by other conferences, and one that's miles over the head of the FAA: there is no longer a "regional airline" industry. It's gone. These operators are now SJP's - small jet providers. Today, with a few exceptions, such as EAS markets, operators such as Mesaba, Mesa, and Skywest don't have their own route systems. That's because they're not in the airline business anymore. They are in the far more demanding role of selling lift to mega-carriers - specifically, they provide small jet lift (and for the moment, some turboprop lift) to mega-carriers, operated at the direction of each mega-carrier buying the lift. The enormous ramifications of this - including the future spin-offs of SJPs now owned by mega-carriers - were covered at the conference. "
"Excess Capacity - "Regional" Jets.
Not To Mention the SJPs That Operate Them
The poorly-researched media stories on the "growth of regional jets" notwithstanding, the fact is that even today there is hardly a shortage of small jets. Along the lines of the Atlantic Coast Airlines situation, it's becoming clear that there is an emerging excess of both small jet providers and the small jets they operate. (We recognize this runs counter to the herd thinking, but that's why our conference attendees run ahead of the herd.)
As our fleet forecasts have indicated (and expressed at our conferences) for the past three years, the "RJ" demand curve would peter out in the early part of the decade, and the applications of small jets would begin to decline in the 2005 - 2007 time frame. That's what's already taking place, and, give or take a spike or two, that trend will become more pronounced in the next five years.
The ACA/United relationship is only one indication. The reduction in American operations at STL is also pointing toward some small jets looking for a home. And, interestingly, almost on cue two days after the conference, Northwest was reported to have reduced the number of jets it allows Mesaba to operate, and may entirely cancel that SJP's contract to operate jets for Northwest.
Going forward, plan on a shake-out in SJPs. The ones which can provide excellence in service at the lowest cost will survive. Those that can't will end up with fleets of RJs sitting expensively idle."
