AMR heading towards Bankruptcy?????

[sleepy]

Could the nation's second largest airline go next?

I thought we were the largest. WOW, they can't even figure out we are the largest, but they are convinced we will go bancrupt.

HELLOOO out there. WE are ALL in danger of going bankrupt.. that isn't kool-aid, it is reality. There are a couple of carriers that are exempt. Higher fuel prices, a war in the middle east, and it is over.

AAflyer

P.S> if UAL goes bankrupt, you better pray AMR doesn't, it will knock down the rest.

You are right. These guys seem like they would enjoy an AA bankruptcy. If it happens we will all suffer. DAL and UA will have to go bankrupt to say competative. All of our contracts will be gone. It will take 15 to 20 years for wages to recover throughout the industry. This is nothing to look forward to.

 

[SUPREME NTM]

Everything is possible !! But I will have to agree with AAflyer and Pilot141, AMR is in a better financial shape than most other carriers. And if AMR does go bankrupt, may God help us all !!!
Regarding the analyst's report, it is just one guy's analysis and just that !!!!
Drinking the Kool Aid and hoping to keep on drinking !!

 

[G4G5]

The real problem comes when/if UAL files CH 11. Things will get ugly fast. AA/DAL is not about to have their number one competitor around not paying it's bills. They are not about to let UAL hang around in Ch 11 very long. They will put a tremendous amount of pressure on all the vendors, suppliers and creditors to force UAL to liquidate or come out of Ch11. DAL/AA will have plenty of leverage because they will say, "you want us to stop paying our bills"?

At that point UAL will either recove or die. If they try to stay in ch11 for an extended period(similar to U). Then AA and DAL will file ch11 too. Both have plenty of cash to last a few months with a BK UAL but they can't last forever.

Funny thing is AA and DAL both have exclusive contract with Boeing. UAL does not. UAL is controled by a French insurrance company(largest share holder) AA and DAL are not. When it comes to political press where do think UAL stands? Just a few of the big picture things that don't help UAL.




It cracks me up when I read things like "AA just has a better PR department" Out of touch on the outside looking in. You really need to get a beeter understanding of SEC procedures and the current climate in the accounting profession.

 

[AirlineWannabe]

Question

G4G5.

What is the importance of 1) an exclusive contract with Boeing and 2) being owned by a French insurance company.

May be obvious to most on this board but not to me.

A-B

 

[20/20]

If UAL files C11, AA and DAL and NWA will likely follow relatively closely behind. They can try all they want to put pressure on venders, but the reality is that the venders will need money just as much as any other business and will continue to do business with UAL on a cash basis.

The reality would be that none of the majors would be able to compete with the segment of the market controlled by USAir and UAL under BK protection. They would quickly seek the same protection to attempt to ensure longterm survival.

As to the pensions many US corporations are in similar straights as they have all used stockmarket valuations/growth rates of the late '90s to avoid funding. The drop in the market over the last 18 month has most pension funds significantly underfunded. This may be the next business crisis, and of course the brunt of it will be borne by the employees, again.

Seatbelt sign should be ON.

 

[~~~^~~~]

There is "buzz" about meetings with Eagle Management and some ALPA reps regarding sale of all of Eagle, in a fashion similar to Continental's sale of equity to shore up cash position and the under funded pension obligation.

Specifics are not out yet...

 

[G4G5]

What is the importance of 1) an exclusive contract with Boeing and 2) being owned by a French insurance company.

May be obvious to most on this board but not to me.

A-B


In Washington, it's all about political influence. Do you remember how GW flem to his inaguration? On a brand new AA Boeing 737.

When finance's get this big you need to thinking global. UAL has a $900 mill worth of EETC's due (enhanced equipment trust certificates, bonds guranteed by aircraft). $350 mil are due next month. These are due to a Germany bank, they were used to finance French aircraft (airbus).

Are the French helping GW with his Iraq delima? Nope.


Now add in the local pressure, if UAL has to go Ch 11. you can bet that AA will be doing what it can to make things worse. Then their's DAL they aren't about to let UAL off the hook either. DAL and AA have exclusive contracts with Boeing, so no need to guess as to where Boeing will be will be applying its clout when asked.

If GW is given the choice to help AA and DAL or let UAL get away without paying it's bill's($1.9 billion dollar loan) what do you think.

 

[G4G5]

Geeze, I can't edit the above post, it's flew not flem

Anyway, GW can't have a situtation where all 3 of his majors are bankrupt. That's why the political forces (election in 2 weeks) are in play. GW has to draw the line some where. What does GW care if UAL can't make their payment to a Germany bank, being owned by a French insurance company does not help.

As far as a divestiture of Eagle, highly doubtful.
The NASDQ just announced that they would delay their IPO for at least another 6 month. Bloomberg just announced that 3Q02 was the worst quater for IPO's in 23 years. So, what can Carty do with Eagle. An IPO? I think not.

Who would buy an airline in todays economy?

It sound more like he is angry with the Scope clause and can't do a thing.

 

[OakRBust]

Mesaba Holdings would!

 

[eaglefly]

AMR has been breaking their back to maneuver around both the AA pilots and AE pilots contract to allow the continued acceptance of RJ's at Eagle (2-3/month).

Most major carriers see the need for RJ's (NONE in desert).

Why would AMR just give away what they've been hoarding and protecting for the last 5 years (RJ's) ?

The only thing that makes sense is some sort of spin-off that benefits AMR shareholders.

Continued rumors of EMB-170's and eventually 190's. Rumors of more mainline downsizing and furloughs.

No answers, but this week hopefully will provide some signs.