Alaska pilots: who would you prefer buy you?

[Flyby1206]

I think AS and B6 need to marry up and dominate each respective coast

Booyea! We dont need no stinkin' fly-over country.

Just pure assumption on my part. I believe adding Alaska after merging with NW recently would be an interesting arguement before the DOJ. That's why I asked what others thought. You could very well be right. DOJ vs. DOT though...two different arguements as well.

The DOJ seems to b*tch at any opportunity they get when it comes to mergers, but they dont have the final say in the matter. It is hard to really get an idea of what would be rejected by the DOT since we havent had any mergers turned down in recent years. The DOT seems to focus on slot controlled airports only (look at SWA+Airtran in BWI, no word from DOT), but it could get even less restrictive if the DOT allows AA/US to keep all their DCA slots. Time will tell.

Ultimately, I think Delta would do anything they could to get a deal with Alaska approved (even if it meant some sort of divestiture of gates/slots/etc).

 

[General Lee]

Even when the CEO controls the money side of the equation? Good luck with that, especially when there's a large difference in contracts.



So back to the original question. Who's in play.

Delta? I don't think they would get past the DOJ on the size.
AA/US? The same, especially since they aren't close to completing theirs.
UA/CAL? A mix of both of the above.
HAL? Not sure that works too well together with two very specific regions.

Pretty much leaves Southwest.

What are the other ideas out there?

Uhhhh, what??? DL/AK would be too big? There is virtually no overlap except SEA to ATL, MSP, SLC (coming up), ANC (DL adding it), LAX, LAS, and HNL. That's it. You guys compete a lot more on the West Coast, and the DOJ would have more of a problem with that. No overlap is key with all recent mergers. Wrong Red, wrong. DL/AK already have a relationship (strained a bit lately), and is already proven profitable. Sorry for dismantling your theory.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Booyea! We dont need no stinkin' fly-over country.




The DOJ seems to b*tch at any opportunity they get when it comes to mergers, but they dont have the final say in the matter. It is hard to really get an idea of what would be rejected by the DOT since we havent had any mergers turned down in recent years. The DOT seems to focus on slot controlled airports only (look at SWA+Airtran in BWI, no word from DOT), but it could get even less restrictive if the DOT allows AA/US to keep all their DCA slots. Time will tell.

Ultimately, I think Delta would do anything they could to get a deal with Alaska approved (even if it meant some sort of divestiture of gates/slots/etc).

A divestiture of slots would be at airports they both frequent, a lot. JetBlue is asking the DOT for AA and US to divest some slots at DCA, since they both have a lot of flights there. Please tell me an airport that is slot controlled that both AK and DL frequent, a lot? I don't think SEA is slotted, and the biggies like ORD and DCA, both airlines don't compete directly. (Only AK flies ORD to SEA for example)


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Flyby1206]

A divestiture of slots would be a airports they both frequent, a lot. JetBlue is asking the DOT for AA and US to divest some slots at DCA, since they both have a lot of flights there. Please tell me an airport that is slot controlled that both AK and DL frequent, a lot?


Bye Bye---General Lee

Check my post upstream, I dont think there is any reason AS/DL couldnt merge. The combination of the two doesnt significantly change any presence in any slot controlled airports.

 

[redflyer65]

Uhhhh, what??? DL/AK would be too big? There is virtually no overlap except SEA to ATL, MSP, SLC (coming up), ANC (DL adding it), LAX, LAS, and HNL. That's it. You guys compete a lot more on the West Coast, and the DOJ would have more of a problem with that. No overlap is key with all recent mergers. Wrong Red, wrong. DL/AK already have a relationship (strained a bit lately), and is already proven profitable. Sorry for dismantling your theory.


Bye Bye---General Lee

Easy General, I didn't say I had all the answers....and that's basically what I put in my post. Just looking for other points of view. Yours is noted, your not dismantling anything of mine.

So your saying the two interesting parties would be SW and DL? Any others you see on the horizon as a possiblity?

 

[Saluki Dawg]

Those are the two entities that I see as well. I also agree with GL that DL/AS would have absolutely zero problem passing both DOJ/DOT scrutiny. As was already stated, even after those two got together they would still be smaller than the combined AA/US combination. I do see either WN or DL going after AS in the next five years though, although I would say its a coin flip as to which Airline AS would decide to hookup with.

 

[Mea25000]

AMR is busy and should be busy for the next 24 mo's. A quick side note AMR is the legacy of choice by our 75k and Golds. How or why I have no idea. UAL I would think would not be interested but I have heard a little noise of interest from UAL of late. DAL not only is interested... I have heard RA is pushing for a deal to be done and soon. AS however is interested in independence... That is not posturing but really the direction our management believes in. We shall see...

If I had a vote it would be independence... If I knew we had to merge to survive I would like UAL! Don't think it will happen though... Hunch is the widget. SWA is and never will be a player... Great company but very different market.

 

[General Lee]

Easy General, I didn't say I had all the answers....and that's basically what I put in my post. Just looking for other points of view. Yours is noted, your not dismantling anything of mine.

So your saying the two interesting parties would be SW and DL? Any others you see on the horizon as a possiblity?

No, not really. AA is busy with US, and UAL has a huge SFO base and fairly big LAX base. I can't see JB or any LCC other than SWA possibly going after AK. As far as SWA, they have a pretty big West Coast presence already. You guys mainly went after AT for ATL, and somewhat for their BWI and MKE presence. SEA/PDX/ANC would be a big prize for anyone, because nobody else really competes with AK at any of those. We'll see what happens. There is an outside chance AK goes after HA on their own, but that would add a lot of extra debt, since HA doesn't own a lot of their planes.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Flopgut]

If I knew we had to merge to survive I would like UAL!

Really? I'm sorta surprised to hear that. FWIW: I hope you can stay independent. Additionally, I think SWA is a player in that they have to be granted something in any/all large scale mergers. CAL/UAL had to forfeit some Newark flying to them, and I'm sure GK is currently looking over AA/LCC deciding what freebie he wants to pluck out. May not be much there... But a deal with AS? If SWA can't get the whole enchilada, they will want the best parts. They are already licking their chops with this thread.

 

[MesabaDriver]

Mesa!!!