Alaska pilots: who would you prefer buy you?

[Saluki Dawg]

Those are the two entities that I see as well. I also agree with GL that DL/AS would have absolutely zero problem passing both DOJ/DOT scrutiny. As was already stated, even after those two got together they would still be smaller than the combined AA/US combination. I do see either WN or DL going after AS in the next five years though, although I would say its a coin flip as to which Airline AS would decide to hookup with.

 

[Mea25000]

AMR is busy and should be busy for the next 24 mo's. A quick side note AMR is the legacy of choice by our 75k and Golds. How or why I have no idea. UAL I would think would not be interested but I have heard a little noise of interest from UAL of late. DAL not only is interested... I have heard RA is pushing for a deal to be done and soon. AS however is interested in independence... That is not posturing but really the direction our management believes in. We shall see...

If I had a vote it would be independence... If I knew we had to merge to survive I would like UAL! Don't think it will happen though... Hunch is the widget. SWA is and never will be a player... Great company but very different market.

 

[General Lee]

Easy General, I didn't say I had all the answers....and that's basically what I put in my post. Just looking for other points of view. Yours is noted, your not dismantling anything of mine.

So your saying the two interesting parties would be SW and DL? Any others you see on the horizon as a possiblity?

No, not really. AA is busy with US, and UAL has a huge SFO base and fairly big LAX base. I can't see JB or any LCC other than SWA possibly going after AK. As far as SWA, they have a pretty big West Coast presence already. You guys mainly went after AT for ATL, and somewhat for their BWI and MKE presence. SEA/PDX/ANC would be a big prize for anyone, because nobody else really competes with AK at any of those. We'll see what happens. There is an outside chance AK goes after HA on their own, but that would add a lot of extra debt, since HA doesn't own a lot of their planes.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Flopgut]

If I knew we had to merge to survive I would like UAL!

Really? I'm sorta surprised to hear that. FWIW: I hope you can stay independent. Additionally, I think SWA is a player in that they have to be granted something in any/all large scale mergers. CAL/UAL had to forfeit some Newark flying to them, and I'm sure GK is currently looking over AA/LCC deciding what freebie he wants to pluck out. May not be much there... But a deal with AS? If SWA can't get the whole enchilada, they will want the best parts. They are already licking their chops with this thread.

 

[MesabaDriver]

Mesa!!!

 

[Ocity]

This Alaska Pilot wants to be purchased by *NOBODY*.

 

[SWA Bubba]

This Southwest pilot would consider being purchased by a rich, single, smokin' hot nymphomaniac.

Jus' sayin'...

Bubba

 

[igneousy2]

Even when the CEO controls the money side of the equation? Good luck with that, especially when there's a large difference in contracts.



So back to the original question. Who's in play.

Delta? I don't think they would get past the DOJ on the size.
AA/US? The same, especially since they aren't close to completing theirs.
UA/CAL? A mix of both of the above.
HAL? Not sure that works too well together with two very specific regions.

Pretty much leaves Southwest.

What are the other ideas out there?

How do you figure DL, AA/US, or UA/CAL + AS would be too large...but not AS+SWA???

Alaska does not dominate any market...even in SEA, we don't dominate to the same level that Delta dominates ATL, AA dominates DFW or US dominates CLT.

Alaska wants to be independent, so AS isn't going to go out and buy anybody. They have their "growth" plan locked in for the next decade, assuring the current managements job-security for the forseable future so that requires somebody to buy AS.

HA, Republic, Mesa, Skywest, forget it - AS would be too big a prey.

SWA - If there is any DOJ justification to intervene, I think it lies with SWA. That being said, I think SWA is not going to be interested in acquiring anyone for a very long time.

AA/US - The west coast is the backwater of the US as far as AA is concerned and I think they are perfectly happy sub-contracting the flying out to AS.

JBLU - I think it would be a great match up if it were a merger but I don't think JBLU is big enough to do it without the cooperation of AS management.

UAL/CAL - I think this is a very good possibility since they don't have anything to lose. In the 90's, everybody was sure that the big merger was going to be NWA/CAL for the same reasons that the popular prediction is DAL/AS today.

DAL/AS - I think it's still the most likely for reasons that have already been discussed.

 

[freightdogfred]

Those are the two entities that I see as well. I also agree with GL that DL/AS would have absolutely zero problem passing both DOJ/DOT scrutiny. As was already stated, even after those two got together they would still be smaller than the combined AA/US combination. I do see either WN or DL going after AS in the next five years though, although I would say its a coin flip as to which Airline AS would decide to hookup with.

Let's see... 1) 2 ALPA carriers, merging an SLI with an actual arbitrator making the decision.
or
2) A force fed SLI from a CEO, after expressly consenting to arbitration.

I'm sure the Alaska MEC won't have any trubble picking a side.

 

[Mea25000]

In my opinion UAL has the best route structure of all the big three. Check back in 7 years, I think their layout will have them dominating air travel in our country. Well by dominating I mean they will be the airline AA and DAL will be chasing and trying to emulate.
Independence would be great but if not I think the airline to be at is UAL

 

[Mamma]

The question is...who has $4.5-$5.0 billion sitting around to buy 120 planes? Alaska is very expensive right now.

 

[Flyby1206]

The question is...who has $4.5-$5.0 billion sitting around to buy 120 planes? Alaska is very expensive right now.

Who uses cash to merge airlines? It would be an all stock deal no doubt.

 

[waveflyer]

In my opinion UAL has the best route structure of all the big three. Check back in 7 years, I think their layout will have them dominating air travel in our country. Well by dominating I mean they will be the airline AA and DAL will be chasing and trying to emulate.
Independence would be great but if not I think the airline to be at is UAL

Ah, the dreams of what united has been and SHOULD be.

That's why the collective management of united has been so sad-
So much potential for greatness, but they toil in spite of themself

 

[be-400xpdriver]

Great Lakes!!

 

[Flopgut]

In my opinion UAL has the best route structure of all the big three. Check back in 7 years, I think their layout will have them dominating air travel in our country. Well by dominating I mean they will be the airline AA and DAL will be chasing and trying to emulate.
Independence would be great but if not I think the airline to be at is UAL

I'm former Continental now merging into UAL... Something is a miss at ole UAL. It's hard to see from the outside, but this is not just bad management. The agents, flight attendants, and to a somewhat lesser extent the pilots, are all a big part of the very big problem UAL has. UAL employees just walk around in a pissed off haze with no real idea what they are doing. The problem goes way back; ESOP was an attempt to break this, and it did not work. The ownership aspect of ESOP was lost on them and instead of taking care of their company, they squeezed all the "golden eggs".