Alaska/Delta? Probably not

[Dan Roman]

this article makes a good case of casting doubt on Alaska, Hawaiian or JetBlue merging with anyone.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/27/dont-buy-alaska-air-for-a-delta-buyout.aspx

 

[Flyby1206]

Selective reading Dan? Thoughts on AS/HA?

Considering how efficient Alaska Air already runs, it would seem that buying Hawaiian Airlines would provide more opportunity of improving operational efficiency. Currently, Hawaiian has roughly 40% of the revenue base of Alaska, but 10% of the market cap. The main difference in the airlines being the higher passenger revenue per available seat mile, or PRASM, considering that both airlines have similar costs. The operating revenue per available seat mile, or RASM, is no contest -- Alaska Air generates 15.39 cents compared to the 13.57 cents of Hawaiian Airlines.

Good article though, this hits it on the head for Delta/Alaska relationships:

The likely impetus of the rumor on Delta buying Alaska Air was the news that Delta plans to operate 79 daily departures in Seattle to 25 cities by mid-2014, up from 35 flights to 15 destinations now. In fact, Delta might be making this move because Alaska Air balked at a deal or knew that regulatory approval won't happen anyway. By both airlines announcing plans to expand into each others hubs makes absolute no sense that a merger is in the works.

I think Delta will start to bleed AS of some revenue and AS might be forced to look for a merger. HA would be a likely candidate.

 

[Jon Rivoli]

Or maybe Delta will do the bleeding. People in the Northwest love the home team.

 

[General Lee]

Or maybe Delta will do the bleeding. People in the Northwest love the home team.

Sorry Jon, you are very likely incorrect, again......DL seems to be firing on all cylinders. How's your SKW doing? Any worry about Compass going out to LA and establishing a crew base with planes? Looks like they can do what you do.


Delta Air Lines December Passenger Revenue Jumps 10%, Partly Thanks to Thanksgiving Travel
By Patrick Morris, Motley fool
January 3, 2014

Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL ) reported its financial and operating performance for December today, and the company saw strong year-over-year results. The airline watched its passenger unit revenue rise by 10% on a relative basis, and the company attributed this to both stronger consumer demand as well as the way Thanksgiving fell on the calendar this year, which pushed some of the travel tied to that holiday into December.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[IBNAV8R]

DL might be able to put the hurt on them but, they are gonna bleed a LOT in the process and still not win over Alaska's loyal customer base. Trust me. AS is different.

Seems like DL is pi$$ing in a lot of Post Toasties lately.

 

[Flying the Line]

Speaking of Delta in Los Angeles, how's that Sydney flight working out?

 

[scoreboardII]

Or maybe Delta will do the bleeding. People in the Northwest love the home team.

That's what they said about Frontier, Pan Am, TWA, Piedmont, Western
, AirTran, Northwest, Continental, and on and on.

 

[General Lee]

Speaking of Delta in Los Angeles, how's that Sydney flight working out?

Consistantly oversold. Joint Venture with Virgin Australia seems to be helping. I have heard they were considering swapping the 777 for a 744.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

DL might be able to put the hurt on them but, they are gonna bleed a LOT in the process and still not win over Alaska's loyal customer base. Trust me. AS is different.

Seems like DL is pi$$ing in a lot of Post Toasties lately.

Riiiiiight. Did you read some of the comments from the locals in JNU at the end of the JNU article? Seems like quite a few locals were pleased that DL was coming in, and some stated they wished it was year round.

Also, DL will use their connections in SEA from every DL hub to fill the flight with doctors and bankers that were going to connect onto one of your flights to see the sights up there during the Summer. So, more locals can use your flights, for $100 less too thanks to competition. I bet they will thank DL regardless of which carrier they fly on.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Old School 737]

Consistantly oversold. Joint Venture with Virgin Australia seems to be helping. I have heard they were considering swapping the 777 for a 744.


Bye Bye---General Lee

What happens when the 744 is retired ? What's the plan?

 

[Mamma]

That's what they said about Frontier, Pan Am, TWA, Piedmont, Western
, AirTran, Northwest, Continental, and on and on.

Don't forget Song! They were a resounding success against jetBlue.

 

[flythere]

Don't forget Song! They were a resounding success against jetBlue.

Like re-tarTED song was a big flop!!!

 

[General Lee]

What happens when the 744 is retired ? What's the plan?

They were just refurbished, so 5-10 more years until they are. 787s still on order coming around 2020, and the -800s could be switched maybe to the -900 version. The way DL buys used planes (Md-90s, 717s), I could see them picking up used 777-300ERs.

I think the plan is to pay down a lot of the debt, and then make orders possibly. The only new planes coming now besides the 787s are 100 739ERs coming now at a couple per month, 30 new A321s starting in 2016, and 10 new A330s starting in 2015. The 717s are used of course, but all 88 will be on property by 2015.

There is a gap in orders, you are correct. But, SCOPE still protects the amount of flying the INTL partners can do. How's your scope overall?



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Don't forget Song! They were a resounding success against jetBlue.

The plane used (single class 190+ seats) 757, was too big for most of the routes. To fill the seats, the fares were lowered, and since Jebtlue was new at the time and had lower costs overall (longevity of employees was low also, many on 1st, 2nd year pay etc), they could handle the lower fares.


Would Song fail today with the addition of bag and change fees? How about with additional costs and higher costs at JB and SWA due to more senior employees? SWA doesn't always have the lowest fares anymore, and they don't have the fuel hedge advantage.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[DYLIN]

Speaking of Delta in Los Angeles, how's that Sydney flight working out?

United has downgraded theirs to a 777 for the first time in a long time. However it's been working out for DL, it's probably going to get slightly better with 300 less seats a week on the competition.

 

[Noserider76]

Don't forget Song! They were a resounding success against jetBlue.

Song gets no respect but it really morphed into the DL of today. Food for sale, on demand and live TV (started by JB of course), the ala carte airline experience, and other things. A lot of the people with the ideas for Song ended up as the initial cadre at Virgin America. The main lesson learned was an airline within an airline is a bad idea. Wait wasn't this a thread about DL and AS?

 

[moochild11]

So general what does make you nervous? Seems like delta is just gonna march along and destroy anybody who dares walk in their path..and do you really think delta is going to have the lowest fares on any route they compete with Alaska on out of Seattle? We do it cheaper and better than you do..

 

[General Lee]

So general what does make you nervous? Seems like delta is just gonna march along and destroy anybody who dares walk in their path..and do you really think delta is going to have the lowest fares on any route they compete with Alaska on out of Seattle? We do it cheaper and better than you do..

Well oh-Kay then..... The deal is you didn't have much competition, and now you do. Reading some comments at the end of one of those local Juneau newspaper articles, it looked like some locals looked forward to change and a choice. The fact is, during your busiest time of the year to some of your most profitable cities, there now will be that choice. That is never good when you once had a monopoly. And now, you will do it for even cheaper. Better? Service hasn't even started yet, wait until the Summer is over to make that claim....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[moochild11]

Please refer to latest Jd power(5 or 6 in a row..I can't remember) or on time or any rating of airlines you can find to see who does it better..and did we decide if you can use our 26 RNP in JNU yet? If not It will affect you even in summer..I'm sure Alaska will match your new flight time and there is no way you will have one fare cheaper on that flight..the only customer you will compete for is out of towners going up to vacation..why are they gonna choose delta? Fare price..schedule..service..mileage plan..reliability..options..seems like Alaska wins all those battles to me..maybe you can put a 744 on that route and kill us with gauge..

 

[General Lee]

Please refer to latest Jd power(5 or 6 in a row..I can't remember) or on time or any rating of airlines you can find to see who does it better..and did we decide if you can use our 26 RNP in JNU yet? If not It will affect you even in summer..I'm sure Alaska will match your new flight time and there is no way you will have one fare cheaper on that flight..the only customer you will compete for is out of towners going up to vacation..why are they gonna choose delta? Fare price..schedule..service..mileage plan..reliability..options..seems like Alaska wins all those battles to me..maybe you can put a 744 on that route and kill us with gauge..

You sure seem defensive. Sounds like the same way DL feels about all of your crazy additions out of SLC. DL actually has plenty of connections into SEA on INTL and domestic flights to help fill the new additional flights. Your new ones to SLC...... Not so much. Good luck with that..


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Mamma]

You sure seem defensive. Sounds like the same way DL feels about all of your crazy additions out of SLC. DL actually has plenty of connections into SEA on INTL and domestic flights to help fill the new additional flights. Your new ones to SLC...... Not so much. Good luck with that..


Bye Bye---General Lee

I can just see it. Anderson sitting in a meeting saying "Why don't we serve the capital of Alaska? Didn't we do it years ago in the 727?" Then a company "yes man" chimes in and says "We can do it!" Then the decision gets back to those that have to implement it and I'll bet there is a lot of sweating. Juneau is a special qual airport in regards to our ops specs. It will probably be the same for you meaning you will need specially trained pilots to go in there. Now you will have to train all these pilots for 4 months of operations. Then you will probably not get the RNP approach and might end up going to your alternate (2 hours away) once or twice every other week if the summer is nice. (LDA mins). Personally, I think the competition is good. Alaska needs it and the locals need to see why they pay a little more for the service when they are boomeranging back to Seattle after going missed. Also, it forces Alaska to up their game and try to offer a better product. Seattle-Phoenix/Tucson would have probably been a better bet for you guys.

 

[General Lee]

I can just see it. Anderson sitting in a meeting saying "Why don't we serve the capital of Alaska? Didn't we do it years ago in the 727?" Then a company "yes man" chimes in and says "We can do it!" Then the decision gets back to those that have to implement it and I'll bet there is a lot of sweating. Juneau is a special qual airport in regards to our ops specs. It will probably be the same for you meaning you will need specially trained pilots to go in there. Now you will have to train all these pilots for 4 months of operations. Then you will probably not get the RNP approach and might end up going to your alternate (2 hours away) once or twice every other week if the summer is nice. (LDA mins). Personally, I think the competition is good. Alaska needs it and the locals need to see why they pay a little more for the service when they are boomeranging back to Seattle after going missed. Also, it forces Alaska to up their game and try to offer a better product. Seattle-Phoenix/Tucson would have probably been a better bet for you guys.

I'm pretty sure your Dash-8-400s go in there, and I'm pretty sure DL flies RNP approaches, but who are we kidding here? This will be Summer service, the best weather for the year at JNU. It's like you think DL can't handle tough approaches? Really? There's not enough time to figure it out, train Check Airmen? Really? You guys really need to get over yourselves. I think it'll be okay....... With connections from the US (MSP, ATL, JFK, DTW, SLC, LAX, SFO, LAS, HNL), INTL Connections (AMS, CDG, LHR, NRT, PEK, ICN, PVG, HKG, and HND) and all the DCI connections, I think DL will be able to fill a 738 to JNU, one to FAI, and 3 daily to ANC from SEA. Don't get too upset that you'll get fewer of those connections, just throw a fare sale and more lucky locals will get to go.

And have fun filling your new SLC flights.... SLC to SJC and SAN? Why? Dash-8-400s to BOI and LAS? Really? When do all of those Dashes start taking over your ANC flying btw? Do you have any scope protection? There will 140 fewer RJs over at DL when the current contract expires.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Mamma]

I never said you couldn't do it. If Alaska let's you use the RNP, you'll be fine in regards to the weather. I was just saying it's a bit of effort to get a bunch of pilots qual'd to go in there for only 4 months.

 

[LandGreen]

I can just see it. Anderson sitting in a meeting saying "Why don't we serve the capital of Alaska? Didn't we do it years ago in the 727?" Then a company "yes man" chimes in and says "We can do it!" Then the decision gets back to those that have to implement it and I'll bet there is a lot of sweating. Juneau is a special qual airport in regards to our ops specs. It will probably be the same for you meaning you will need specially trained pilots to go in there. Now you will have to train all these pilots for 4 months of operations. Then you will probably not get the RNP approach and might end up going to your alternate (2 hours away) once or twice every other week if the summer is nice. (LDA mins). Personally, I think the competition is good. Alaska needs it and the locals need to see why they pay a little more for the service when they are boomeranging back to Seattle after going missed. Also, it forces Alaska to up their game and try to offer a better product. Seattle-Phoenix/Tucson would have probably been a better bet for you guys.

Are you a newhire? Only a newhire fresh out of training; ink still wet on the JNU checkout would gloat about a SAQ airport.

Is this a CA only airport? Needless to say, any training department at DAL, UAL, AMR, SWA etc could spin up a JNU program. It just takes time and $$. Until now the numbers didn't work...

 

[moochild11]

You sure seem defensive. Sounds like the same way DL feels about all of your crazy additions out of SLC. DL actually has plenty of connections into SEA on INTL and domestic flights to help fill the new additional flights. Your new ones to SLC...... Not so much. Good luck with that..





Bye Bye---General Lee

Sorry general..not defensive just not scared..you just don't seem to get the state of Alaska..there is a reason Alaska spent so much money developing RNP..reliability sucks in se without it(year round not just in winter)..we have spent time and money making it work..now it's like clockwork..you aren't just gonna waltz in there and steal our pax..they have absolutely no incentive to fly on you..the first time their friends get in on us and your flight is sitting in ANC or Seattle it's game over..and nobody is saying it is hard to fly an RNP approach..you could sit in an Alaska jet with Alaska plates and no problem...with LDA mins hello Seattle..plus don't our pax have the same list of connections as yours with our nifty little delta code share(plus Dubai of course)..

 

[Mamma]

Are you a newhire? Only a newhire fresh out of training; ink still wet on the JNU checkout would gloat about a SAQ airport.

Is this a CA only airport? Needless to say, any training department at DAL, UAL, AMR, SWA etc could spin up a JNU program. It just takes time and $$. Until now the numbers didn't work...

New hire? No. Are you Buck Rogers? Only Buck Rogers, who defeated the universe would talk out his a$$ about an airport he knows nothing about....because he's Buck Rogers and can do anything. Anyway, enough of the name calling. I see reading is not your strong suit so I'll help you out. I did not "gloat" about JNU being a SQ airport. What I said was it does not sound economical to spin a bunch of pilots up for a 4 month service. If you don't get the lower mins approaches it might not be economical also. Hope that helps!

 

[8v8ter]

Don"t count on summer weather being better. I did OE to JNU in August and flying into 8 and just barely seeing the little light in that narrow cut right at mins at 400 feet or so (Don't have the mins in front of me), and knowing I had a hard turn to final coming up to a runway I still didn't see and a mountain in front of me that I also couldn't see yet, with a right crosswind blowing me towards it, in a plane I had all of 15 hours in...

Gets your blood going. Now I just do it in the sim every year.

 

[Boxboy]

In Mamma's defense, all he said was that it would cost additional money and time to train pilots to fly into JNU. It wasn't condescending IMO. True, anyone can fly into JNU and other SE Alaska. Just like anything else, you get good at it after a few tries (at least most do).
When did ya'll get promoted to CEO? Dang........ I missed the boat again! Yeah dat's right, my daddy can beat up your daddy! Can't we all just get along?

 

[Mookie]

I just think its funny everyone is saying Juneau is nice in the summer.

Mookie

 

[General Lee]

I just think its funny everyone is saying Juneau is nice in the summer.

Mookie

I guess DL will find out, but I bet it's manageable. Delta also employes 50 meteorologists, and they cover weather around the World. I have a feeling some of them can watch JNU and make sure the pilots are briefed. Thanks for your concern, it'll probably be just fine.


Bye Bye---General Lee