AirTran's going to SFO

[~~~^~~~]

Ty,

You don't think we could compete with 100 seaters on some of your flights? What? Ok.....We also have the flexibility to put a 70 seater or something larger on it if the need arises.

Over time, the training costs will go way down---and that is a fact. But, you neglected to think about that one.

And, you think you could do a better job managing Delta huh?
Bye Bye--General Lee

No, acutally Delta can not operate a 70 seater on a bunch of flights because the airline is scope constrained to 57 of the aircraft, unless they deal with DALPA and DALPA has a bad habit of refusing to negotiate, walking out, and generally acting in bad faith.

Training costs, training costs??? Right now the average Delta pilot is flying around 40 hours a month. ALPA blames this on training rather than lousy pilot productivity. Which is it?

Yep, I think I could do a better job at managing Delta, but I would have never signed contract 2000. I was smart enough to realize the Comair pilots were desperate enough to strike (not much to walk away from) and the Delta pilots would not have struck (too big for ALPA to afford, too big for the President to take, and too much money for the Delta pilots to walk away from).

United did a stupid deal that along with other stupid deals put them in bankruptcy. DAL topped United's deal by 2% and is headed off the same cliff in late 2004 or early 2005.

Wish that I had shorted DAL when it was $40 a share, or the day C2K was signed and it was trading in the high twenties.

 

[Ty Webb]

The General's one 'round the bend

The ASM's have been growing at 25%, and the majority of the flights take place through ATL . . . but now we have been connecting the dots, which is more efficient, and matching O&D traffic, skipping ATL altogether. So, I know you want to hear that denying us gates in ATL was a good thing, but the reality of it is that it helped motivate us to offer more direct, non-stop flights, which are cheaper for us, spare us the ATL delays, and the customers like it better.

Then he claims to be an expert at business and claims he could do better than our managment with the daily operations of Delta.

No, I said that I could do better by throwing darts at a board.

General, I think you are losing it, pal. Take a deep breath, and step away from the keyboard. Go play outside. Read a book. Go visit your buddy FDJ at the Peachtree City Home Depot (lawn center, I think). Have a beer.

 

[General Lee]

Ty and Fins,

You guys are the ones who are losing it. You hope and wish for failure, and cannot see the forest through the trees. Fins just hates Delta pilots in general. Mike Pinho was speaking direct lies to him at the meeting. What a joke. What you cannot see is that DAL is not the same as AA or UA, and does not have the same number of unions or personel. We are the strongest major by far and have the best cash position. Things have been getting better and we had operating profits this summer. Even the analysts were surprised. That is good. To think that the only thing holding Delta back is pilot pay is ridiculous. Also, most Delta pilots do not only fly 40 hours a month. The reason the average is low is because there are a lot of pilots in training at one time, and during that time they fly zero hours, which brings the average down. This isn't Southwest with one aircraft type, we have a lot of different types---all ordered by our managment. We have been in constant flux lately in training due to the large amount of retirements, and right now we have another 167 Capts EARLY retiring to collect on their lump sum (with the Gatt rate rising) on Sept 1st. Delta has created a great LCC in Song that will combat against Jetblue famously. (When all 37 757s arrive by DEC) The yeilds have gone up and have helped financially. And Fins, those LEX and BTR routes have been MD88 and 727 routes before your RJ's---I did LEX as a 727FE. It is easy to try to slam the big dog on the block. Fins doesn't like it that he might get bumped from his CR7 Capt seat, even though 1310 of our guys have hit the street. Ty says his RSMs or ASMs have grown 25% every year for the past couple. That is great, but your flight numbers at ATL have not, and that is what you said. You still have only half of the C concourse. (Airwhisky has part of D) Maybe when your new terminal is built in a couple years---then your departures can grow like that. And then he is insecure enough to slam one of our furloughs, FDJ, about working at Home Depot. Nice. He also likes to slam United. He must be very insecure. And Fins, you might be lucky enough someday to get an interview with Delta when we hire again, but I suggest you go to Airtran. You and Ty can room together and throw darts at Leo's picture, and Mike Pinho's for Fins.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Heavy Set]

Let me suggest that both sides are a bit off. Delta should not be underestimated - it has the cash and an actual plan to compete effectively against the LCCs. With new 100-seaters coming in the next few years, and the potential for more 70-90 seaters flown by Delta furloughees possible, Delta will compete even better. Delta is in the best position it can be at the moment and the expansion of Song and proliferation of 100-seaters (and more RJs) will only improve its position in the future.

AirTran is also doing well with its expansion and its point-to-point offerings. With new Boeings on the way, AirTran will extend its reach and continue to force prices down. AirTran is also in a good position. With UAL sinking fast and AA, CAL and NW flying without robust plans, Delta is in the pole position among the majors.

Let's put this one to rest....

 

[MDP727]

Hey Airtran guys I say congrats! Good luck with your new 737's. If there like ours at ATA you'll love'em. It's nice to climb in a van like I did in Philly the other night, going to the hotel and have a converstion with other pilots, they were Airtran guys. Ya see, to all the rest of you major pukes, except (SWA, UPS, FEDEX), you've been looking down on other folks in the industry for all these years. Snuffing your noses at the other people out there trying to make a living flying airplanes, when really were all one in the same. Hey, by the way, to you folks that only carry one jump seater, don't show up to my airplane. Amazing, you'll move an airplane empty before helping out one more person in your industry.

 

[General Lee]

MDP727,

So, just because our company will only allow one jumpseater per airplane, and actually two jumpseaters if the plane has two jumpseats--like 767-400, some 767-30ERs, and the 777s---you won't let us ride on your ATA planes. Well, ok then. I will report this to our jumpseat coordinator. Thanks in advance for the heads up.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Ty Webb]

Simma down, Clown!

Not true. Don't put words in my mouth.


To think that the only thing holding Delta back is pilot pay is ridiculous.

I never said this, either. There are many things holding Delta back- numero uno is their insistance on taking heavy losses to "keep market share". Ain't working.

Delta has created a great LCC in Song that will combat against Jetblue famously.

You're just whistling in the dark here. No shred of evidence that DAL will ever be able to make this carrier cost-competitive. No shred of evidence yet that it won;t simply erode mainline revenue. It's all a guess, and we will have to wait and see.

Ty says his RSMs or ASMs have grown 25% every year for the past couple. That is great, but your flight numbers at ATL have not, and that is what you said. You still have only half of the C concourse. (Airwhisky has part of D)

Man, you are clinging to that 25% ASM thing like Leo clinging to his golden parachute. The point is that we are growing at 25% ASM . . . almost entirely on routes that DAL serves. Whether or not they all come though ATL matters not. The ones that DON'T go through ATL are more profitable and are more of an indicator of our success, not less.

The gates at Concourse D are not Air Whiskey's, they are ours, and if you would put down your crossword puzzle and look across the ramp, you'd see 717 and DC9's over there all the time.

Last, FDJ doesn;t work at the Home Depot, that was a joke, you were just too wound up to get it.

Time for a little vacation, General?

 

[MDP727]

Now I'm getting words put in my mouth! I never stated a DAL person couldn't jumpseat on us, in fact, we fill every seat every time we can no matter who they fly for! General, why don't you guys go to your management and get your policy changed?
Ya see guys, there's room for all of us out there. The flying public should have a nice variety of air travel to chose from. Some let the coporate mentality spill over into our pilot groups too much. Bottom dollar, no matter what color the uniform we all put are pants on the same way when we wake up. Feast or famine in this buisness. Enjoy the good times while they last, stay postured for the bad times and don't ever forget where ya came from.

 

[General Lee]

Ty,

You seem to be more civil when you aren't making jokes about our furloughs--like FDJ. I think he would have seen it the same way. Just don't make fun of someone who has little control over his/her situation. It makes you look bad. Anyways, Fred Reid was the one who stated that the CASM for Song was 7.0---which was as good or better than Southwest. The pilots at Song (mainline pilots) are the only ones that are expensive--and everyone else has taken large paycuts or benefit cuts to be a part of it. The seats were increased to 199 on the 757, and they got rid of one flight attendant (4 from 5). That may sound bad, but with the introduction of the entertainment system in OCT (or next year--whatever...?), people will be distracted by the TV etc, and therefore require less attention. That is a ture fact. And, if they needed it, they would get it from the spunky people that were "auditioned" for the job---no old grumpy ones here. It is a win-win. IF it truly is 7.0, I have a feeling it will spread, but the pilots are the only ones with a union and a contract--and even though I do see some sort of a pay cut down the road, I don't see a major one.(10-15% is probably accurate)

I know I kept harping on your 25% figure, but originally you stated 25% growth at ATL, and I took that as flights--not ASMs. I knew that there was no way you could grow with number of flights with the same number of gates. I am sure your loads have grwon, and your flights elsewhere, like PHL, BWI, and Good ole Flint, have increased. I never disputed that.

AS far as Delta taking huges losses to keep market share, can you prove that? We have had a great summer with operational profits---$31 million in June and probably more in July and AUG---which haven't been reported. The Fall will probably be tough, but late Nov will start things up again. You need to produce proof for me to believe you on that. The reason we have been losing money overall is our debt service, which with paycuts eventually, will be lowered. But operationally, we have shown profits, which goes against what you are saying. We compete with you on ATL-LGA, and soon ATL-DCA--and those routes are our bread and butter, and are doing fine. Who competes with us on ATL-HNL? How about ATL-- Munich? I bet we profit on those. It all goes into one big pot.

MDP727,

We didn't have ANY jumpseat until 1996. We lost big time in the '96 contract just to get a jumpseat option. Right now the company wants a 31% paycut and we are telling them no way, to not treat us like the other airlines--AA and UAL--because we do not have their exact problems. We are holding up the pay bar for you guys and other airlines. Do you really want us to cave in and then ask them politely for open jumpseats? We are lucky to have any. We will someday ask for them, and if we do give in a little and give them 15% or whatever in pay, I already asked our guys to request that. We shall see what happens.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[skykid]

Gen Lee, something caught my eye on the last page about Song having a 77% load factor in July. Do you realize that everybody is full this Summer? If that 77% is correct, its not a good number ar all. Maybe you meant 87%. Loads will start to drop about now until Thanksgiving, but the good news for all airlines is salesmen and execs are hitting the airports in bigger numbers.

 

[General Lee]

Skykid,

No, I was right when I said 77%. When you look at a new airline brand name--Song---and see the 199 seat airplane is 77% full on average, I think that is pretty good, and so do the analysts. Jetblue was not full right off the bat, it took awhile. The Fall will probably be slow, as every Fall has been, but when colder weather comes into play and they eventual entertainment systems finally arrive at Song, loads should improve. Our Song President was pleased (as any Pres would be...), and with the addition of all three NYC airports---this Winter should be a good one. As you said, hopefully the busines travellers will start flying more as the economy gets better. We can only hope so.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[jetblue320]

Skykid,

No, I was right when I said 77%. When you look at a new airline brand name--Song---and see the 199 seat airplane is 77% full on average, I think that is pretty good, and so do the analysts. Jetblue was not full right off the bat, it took awhile. The Fall will probably be slow, as every Fall has been, but when colder weather comes into play and they eventual entertainment systems finally arrive at Song, loads should improve. Our Song President was pleased (as any Pres would be...), and with the addition of all three NYC airports---this Winter should be a good one. As you said, hopefully the busines travellers will start flying more as the economy gets better. We can only hope so.

Bye Bye--General Lee

JB loads are over 95% booked for Sept. and Oct. not counting walk-ups. Only one NY airport though.....what a drag. Wish we could fly out of LaGarbage!!

 

[skykid]

Roger, Gen. I wonder how many people see Song as a new brand name or just think of it as Delta with new paint. Alot of my relatives live in Atl and they just think its Delta. Also, I don't think any entertainment system is going to have much of a difference on any airline. The formula with so many tickets being purchased on the internet is good service at low prices. I don't think anyone who factors tv into their travel plans will leave the trailer park enough to make a difference. I hope Song works out well. Off the subject, every subspecies of wild turkey that live in North America can fly quite well. The Easterns that live around Atlanta fly up to roost every evening and down every morning, regardless of wind. When spooked by a predator, an Eastern, Osceola, Rio Grande, or Meriams can fly over a mile at amazing speeds. I'm going to have to take you turkey hunt'n - I go over by Dothan, AL. Take care.

 

[General Lee]

Skykid,


Song doesn't have a huge name in ATL because currently there are only 2 flights a day, both to JFK. The Song management has been given a large advertising budget, and will be doing a lot of advertising in the NE---actually aimed at middle aged women. No joke. The marketing geniuses at Song think they are the ones who make the decisions and and buy the tickets for the families---and that is why our Song flight attendants will be wearing uniforms designed by "kate Spade" etc.....I think most of the Song flights will avoid the hubs, and allow mainline to fly flights from ATL and CVG etc....But, there are already flights to LAS, and LAX from FLA--and that will expand when we get all 37 757's into Song by DEC. And, the entertainment systems are important, because they stick in your mind when making reservations. My brother has flown on Jetblue a couple times (and he liked it a lot---darnit), and he thought the video units were great, except when they turned the plane. The Song ones will SUPPOSEDLY be better (if and when they install them......)--so that will be good for customer retention. With service to all 3 large NYC airports, the same fares as Jetblue, and a frequent flyer program connected to NW and CO, I think it will do well.

Jetblue320,

So you want to go to LGA and EWR also? I think LGA is a mess, but obviously passengers who live in Manhatten prefer LGA to JFK---with the lower cab fares. EWR can also get bogged down in bad weather---but passengers in NJ prefer that drive to JFK also.
It will be interesting to see if Song can pull passengers away from you guys. We shall see--I am sure there are enough passengers in that megalopolis for everyone to do well. Let's see how we both do when all of our planes are up and running in DEC.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[~~~^~~~]

Ty and Fins,

You guys are the ones who are losing it. You hope and wish for failure, and cannot see the forest through the trees. Fins just hates Delta pilots in general. Mike Pinho was speaking direct lies to him at the meeting.

No, I don't hope for failure. My paycheck comes from the same place yours does and when yours does not cash, mine will not either.

And no, I don't randomly hate Delta pilots. I do hate that the Delta MEC has set up our union for failure as a result of their profligate ways. Several of my friends who are Delta pilots feel the same way and are concerned about the future of our Company and our union. The day contract 2000 was ratified, they correctly told me that Delta pilots would never see their fourth year figures because the Company just could not survive those numbers. I feel a lot of concern for the Delta pilots because I've lived through several furloughs and bankruptcies. You probably don't know how bad it can get. A couple of my father's coworkers jumped from hotel balconies....

And if my MEC Vice Chair got up and admitted he was lying to his membership "but it does not matter because the Delta pilots percieve that (these lies) are the truth...." yes, it would concern me enough to show up at the next LEC meeting and attempt to get a recall effort going. Part of the reason the Delta pilots are so far out in left field is that their MEC arrogantly manipulates them - just like the whole DOH fiasco that effectively sidetracked the Policy Implementation Date that the ASA MEC brought forward at the 2000 BOD meeting - the PID would have kept most, if not all, of your Delta pilots off the street.

Ty and Fins,

Things have been getting better and we had operating profits this summer. Bye Bye--General Lee

Jimmy crack corn.... Delta's so called "operating profit" does not mean much when they are having to borrow 1.4 Billion and delay payment on nearly 5.0 Billion because their "operating profit" does not provide the cash flow to cover interest payments.

Delta's losses have been financed with borrowed money. This is a death spiral. As the payments come due the Company is refinancing them at higher interest rates. Candidly, I don't see a way out. Somehow I expect Delta will "find a way" simply because they are a very well established, well run, and well staffed business. But a 100 seat aircraft - hooie - what are you going to mortgage to pay for it?

Before this is over, I now expect a banruptcy reorganization in late 04 to mid 05. ASA and Comair may be spun off as the only parts of the Company that would stand on their own in an IPO (and to separate the revenue streams to provide assurance to lienholders for additional aircraft). I also expect ASA and Comair to be used as a life raft to provide employment to Delta pilots after they succeed in choking the golden goose until she gives up her very last egg. Delta will go on, with a moderately successful Song, limited domestic narrowbody capacity, and a marginally profitable international operation. The majority of feed and domestic narrowbody capacity will be RJ's with Delta marketing the go anywhere, anytime, be home for dinner mantra that business travellers love.

But as the current occupant of the "life raft" I do fear ALPA's effort to push me in the Atlantic. ASA and Comair are now the only relatively large regionals without jets for jobs. We protected our jobs by getting to the Courthouse before the Delta MEC could use our bargaining agent (ALPA) to destroy us. I earnestly thank the RJDC for protecting my job from my union.

~~~^~~~

And before you consider me fatalistic, remember that I posted the opinion about C2K the day it was TA'd and the same chorus called me Chicken Little. Also consider the RJDC has been anywhere from six months to two years ahead of ALPA and the Delta MEC on factual allegations.