Airtran would consider merger or carve out

[twepilot]

anyone hear about our gate leases in ATL?

RV

 

[texman]

What is the average age of a airtran pilot. Also any retirement projections over the next 5 to 10 years.

 

[27 driver]

What is the average age of a airtran pilot. Also any retirement projections over the next 5 to 10 years.

10 to 15 retirements per year until 2020. That is as far out as I have done the calculations. Extremely young captain group. Don't count on attrition here at the Tranny.

 

[Metrojet]

SWA will be flying into Atlanta soon enough, it is just a matter of whether it will be to ATL or another unnamed airport in the area.

I think all the airports around ATL already are named. Did you mean an undisclosed location?

Metrojet

 

[Lear70]

I'd say that's about right.

AirTran has a very large core of pilots who are in their 30's and 40's. It's one of the contributing factors to what killed T.A.'s 1 & 2; there isn't a huge group of close-to-65 (60 at the time) pilots who are worried about being unable to start over somewhere else (not that anyone is really worried about that).

I'd say about 20 people a year will either retire or have medical issues that take them out for the foreseeable future. Then you have the people who will leave for Delta or Southwest as they start hiring again (likely mid- to low-seniority F/O's), probably another 20 a year. The majority of upgrades and new-hires will come from deliveries that start next year, not to mention improvements to the Scheduling section from negotiations requiring better staffing, especially in Reserve coverages bumping us to 6 crews per aircraft (estimated).

So, figuring 6 crews per aircraft and adding expected attrition to that gives the following WAG on upgrades/hiring for the next 5 years:

2010: 0 New Aircraft / 159 new hires / 20 CA upgrades.
2011: 7 New Aircraft / 100 new hires / 60 CA upgrades.
2012: 8 New Aircraft / 120 new hires / 65 CA upgrades.
2013: 6 New Aircraft / 86 new hires / 45 CA upgrades.
2014: 12 New Aircraft / 160 new hires / 90 CA upgrades.
2015: 8 New Aircraft / 120 new hires / 65 CA upgrades.
2016: 10 New Aircraft / 140 new hires / 78 CA upgrades.

In other words, in 5 years, someone hired today will be 1/3 of the way up the seniority list and nearly 75% of the existing F/O's will have upgraded with still another year and 10 more aircraft deliveries in 2016.

Theoretically... it's all a crap shoot, anyway. I'm personally betting on either a new, large aircraft order or a merger/purchase within 3 months after negotiations are complete.

 

[texman]

So if swa and the tranny merge upgrade would go to 20 years. Because swa pilot group the majority of us are in our 30 and 40's. So a person on property at swa for two years means a they would probably go junior to a person that has been at airtran for four years.

 

[Lear70]

So if swa and the tranny merge upgrade would go to 20 years. Because swa pilot group the majority of us are in our 30 and 40's. So a person on property at swa for two years means a they would probably go junior to a person that has been at airtran for four years.

Don't know exactly what you're trying to say there, but as far as merging the seniority lists goes, there's no telling how it would work with Allegheny/Mohawk the word of the day...

That said, I'd be HIGHLY surprised if Southwest would purchase AirTran while we're healthy and making money. It would require both pilot groups to AGREE on a seniority integration, and it's unlikely you'd get the AAI pilots to agree to anything but a ratio for RELATIVE seniority.

That means, if I'm bidding in the top 10% of the F/O's at AAI with 16-17 days off, weekends off, and mostly commutable trips, I expect to be in the same place in a combined SWA/AAI seniority list. This would put me as a 5th year AAI F/O likely SENIOR to a 10-12 year SWA F/O. Can you imagine the screaming from the SWA pilot group?

Two arguments:

Southwest pilots: You'll make more money over your career, have very productive trips which means more time at home, and be part of one of the most stable carriers of our lifetime.

AirTran pilots: With our new contract we'll be making enough money to meet our needs, we're a successful, growing airline and have been for over a decade, and our upgrade potential is greatly improved at AAI over Southwest. More to the point, why should we agree to an integration that, from day one, greatly diminishes my quality of life from a monthly bidding / days off / vacation / schedule point of view with date of hire integration and doesn't get it back anytime soon?

This is, in my opinion, why SWA/AAI won't happen. No matter what happens, you'll get a large section of pilots who are unhappy with how seniority integration turned out. Unhappy pilots are NOT what SWA wants, they already showed that with Frontier.

In the past, you probably wouldn't have had such a insistence from the pilot group at AirTran for an equitable seniority integration. But now, with a new contract likely within the next six months that puts us squarely middle of the pack for overall compensation and Quality of Life, you'll find guys and gals that would be happy to just sit tight, enjoy the deliveries, and wait for the quicker upgrade.

 

[10nCLR]

I heard from a reliable source while eating lunch by the pool with a SWA FA on vacation in San Juan that SkyWest was gonna carve out AirTran by Thanksgiving.

 

[Cometman]

I heard from a reliable source while eating lunch by the pool with a SWA FA on vacation in San Juan that SkyWest was gonna carve out AirTran by Thanksgiving.

That seems to be the best way to help Airtran. Afterall they are really just a regional that flies some 737's. They can compete with Republic.

 

[texman]

So when was the last airtran fo hired?