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Airtran would consider merger or carve out
- Thread starter FDJ2
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Lear70
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Ummm... that's not what he said. :erm:
General Lee
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Yeah, Macon, GA is ready for you guys! Go for it! Or are you talking about Paulding County airport to the NW? The 6000 ft runway with absolutely nothing around it? That would be a great fit for you guys. Try LBB and MAF nonstop from there----pure PROFIT! Other than that, unless you get the Airtran gates, it is doubtful SWA will get much at ATL. Sorry Y'all.
Bye Bye--General Lee
MILPILOT17
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So you're saying there's a chance?
General Lee
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I hear Volaris is going to do ALL of your future INTL routes, and even the San Juan route (not even INTL) because your own management doesn't trust you cowboys. West Texas and ISP are more your style. That will be FANTASTIC for the Volaris guys.
Bye Bye--General Lee
mt2
road warrior
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General =
I hear RJ's are eventually going to do ALL of your domestic routes, and even the Canadian and Mexico routes (barely even INTL) because your own management doesn't trust you rednecks. Seems landing at the wrong domestic airport several times years ago hatched managements plan to keep you guys from embarrassing the Company further here in the US. I guess Europe is more your style -- all that time to study the arrival routes/airport to make certain you land at the right place. This plan will be FANTASTIC for the ASA/Comair/Skywest/etc guys.
But really, even though you're giving away ALL that flying you still get to overnight in places where the dollar doesn't go very far. What a bone-us! Fantastic.
I hear RJ's are eventually going to do ALL of your domestic routes, and even the Canadian and Mexico routes (barely even INTL) because your own management doesn't trust you rednecks. Seems landing at the wrong domestic airport several times years ago hatched managements plan to keep you guys from embarrassing the Company further here in the US. I guess Europe is more your style -- all that time to study the arrival routes/airport to make certain you land at the right place. This plan will be FANTASTIC for the ASA/Comair/Skywest/etc guys.
But really, even though you're giving away ALL that flying you still get to overnight in places where the dollar doesn't go very far. What a bone-us! Fantastic.
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General Lee
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That's actually NOT the case. RA, the DL CEO, stated in the last conference call that more RJs were being parked. DL is bringing back mainline planes that were parked in the desert, and DL may even hire sometime in the near future. If you want to get an app, go to IEATCORNDOGSINLUBBOCK.com and print one out. Then, in your best cursive handwriting, write an essay about why you want to "expand your horizons past West Texas" in 3000 words or less. Also, it needs to be in Red ink, with the T's crossed in blue ink. Go for it! Good luck, it will turn out FANTASTIC I bet.
Bye Bye---General Lee
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Kharma Police
Don't mess with Texas
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At least they kept it on the pavement...........
JerryLundegaard
Used car anyone?
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10 to 15 retirements per year until 2020. That is as far out as I have done the calculations. Extremely young captain group. Don't count on attrition here at the Tranny.
I think all the airports around ATL already are named. Did you mean an undisclosed location?
Metrojet
Lear70
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I'd say that's about right.
AirTran has a very large core of pilots who are in their 30's and 40's. It's one of the contributing factors to what killed T.A.'s 1 & 2; there isn't a huge group of close-to-65 (60 at the time) pilots who are worried about being unable to start over somewhere else (not that anyone is really worried about that).
I'd say about 20 people a year will either retire or have medical issues that take them out for the foreseeable future. Then you have the people who will leave for Delta or Southwest as they start hiring again (likely mid- to low-seniority F/O's), probably another 20 a year. The majority of upgrades and new-hires will come from deliveries that start next year, not to mention improvements to the Scheduling section from negotiations requiring better staffing, especially in Reserve coverages bumping us to 6 crews per aircraft (estimated).
So, figuring 6 crews per aircraft and adding expected attrition to that gives the following WAG on upgrades/hiring for the next 5 years:
2010: 0 New Aircraft / 159 new hires / 20 CA upgrades.
2011: 7 New Aircraft / 100 new hires / 60 CA upgrades.
2012: 8 New Aircraft / 120 new hires / 65 CA upgrades.
2013: 6 New Aircraft / 86 new hires / 45 CA upgrades.
2014: 12 New Aircraft / 160 new hires / 90 CA upgrades.
2015: 8 New Aircraft / 120 new hires / 65 CA upgrades.
2016: 10 New Aircraft / 140 new hires / 78 CA upgrades.
In other words, in 5 years, someone hired today will be 1/3 of the way up the seniority list and nearly 75% of the existing F/O's will have upgraded with still another year and 10 more aircraft deliveries in 2016.
Theoretically... it's all a crap shoot, anyway.
I'm personally betting on either a new, large aircraft order or a merger/purchase within 3 months after negotiations are complete.
AirTran has a very large core of pilots who are in their 30's and 40's. It's one of the contributing factors to what killed T.A.'s 1 & 2; there isn't a huge group of close-to-65 (60 at the time) pilots who are worried about being unable to start over somewhere else (not that anyone is really worried about that).
I'd say about 20 people a year will either retire or have medical issues that take them out for the foreseeable future. Then you have the people who will leave for Delta or Southwest as they start hiring again (likely mid- to low-seniority F/O's), probably another 20 a year. The majority of upgrades and new-hires will come from deliveries that start next year, not to mention improvements to the Scheduling section from negotiations requiring better staffing, especially in Reserve coverages bumping us to 6 crews per aircraft (estimated).
So, figuring 6 crews per aircraft and adding expected attrition to that gives the following WAG on upgrades/hiring for the next 5 years:
2010: 0 New Aircraft / 159 new hires / 20 CA upgrades.
2011: 7 New Aircraft / 100 new hires / 60 CA upgrades.
2012: 8 New Aircraft / 120 new hires / 65 CA upgrades.
2013: 6 New Aircraft / 86 new hires / 45 CA upgrades.
2014: 12 New Aircraft / 160 new hires / 90 CA upgrades.
2015: 8 New Aircraft / 120 new hires / 65 CA upgrades.
2016: 10 New Aircraft / 140 new hires / 78 CA upgrades.
In other words, in 5 years, someone hired today will be 1/3 of the way up the seniority list and nearly 75% of the existing F/O's will have upgraded with still another year and 10 more aircraft deliveries in 2016.
Theoretically... it's all a crap shoot, anyway.
I'm personally betting on either a new, large aircraft order or a merger/purchase within 3 months after negotiations are complete.
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Lear70
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Don't know exactly what you're trying to say there, but as far as merging the seniority lists goes, there's no telling how it would work with Allegheny/Mohawk the word of the day...
That said, I'd be HIGHLY surprised if Southwest would purchase AirTran while we're healthy and making money. It would require both pilot groups to AGREE on a seniority integration, and it's unlikely you'd get the AAI pilots to agree to anything but a ratio for RELATIVE seniority.
That means, if I'm bidding in the top 10% of the F/O's at AAI with 16-17 days off, weekends off, and mostly commutable trips, I expect to be in the same place in a combined SWA/AAI seniority list. This would put me as a 5th year AAI F/O likely SENIOR to a 10-12 year SWA F/O. Can you imagine the screaming from the SWA pilot group?
Two arguments:
Southwest pilots: You'll make more money over your career, have very productive trips which means more time at home, and be part of one of the most stable carriers of our lifetime.
AirTran pilots: With our new contract we'll be making enough money to meet our needs, we're a successful, growing airline and have been for over a decade, and our upgrade potential is greatly improved at AAI over Southwest. More to the point, why should we agree to an integration that, from day one, greatly diminishes my quality of life from a monthly bidding / days off / vacation / schedule point of view with date of hire integration and doesn't get it back anytime soon?
This is, in my opinion, why SWA/AAI won't happen. No matter what happens, you'll get a large section of pilots who are unhappy with how seniority integration turned out. Unhappy pilots are NOT what SWA wants, they already showed that with Frontier.
In the past, you probably wouldn't have had such a insistence from the pilot group at AirTran for an equitable seniority integration. But now, with a new contract likely within the next six months that puts us squarely middle of the pack for overall compensation and Quality of Life, you'll find guys and gals that would be happy to just sit tight, enjoy the deliveries, and wait for the quicker upgrade.
Cometman
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That seems to be the best way to help Airtran. Afterall they are really just a regional that flies some 737's. They can compete with Republic.
MILPILOT17
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GuppyWN
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Lear,
That was well thought out. I'll just add what Herb said recently.
"Quality of Life is having a job."
I hope you're right. I don't want any part of a merger. I'd take a buyout or asset sale anyday over merging with a younger pilot group who thinks they deserve what we've built up over the past 39 years.
No offense intented by that. Just my opinion,
Gup
That was well thought out. I'll just add what Herb said recently.
"Quality of Life is having a job."
I hope you're right. I don't want any part of a merger. I'd take a buyout or asset sale anyday over merging with a younger pilot group who thinks they deserve what we've built up over the past 39 years.
No offense intented by that. Just my opinion,
Gup
Cometman
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Very good point. Like I said, Airtran is just a big regional that should be either bought by Republic or merged with them. I think they would fit in nice with that group.
Ty Webb
Hostage to Fortune
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- Dec 10, 2001
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At least until someone else starts hiring again . . . . then, LOOK OUT!
Ty Webb
Hostage to Fortune
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Yawn . . . . Hey, comet man . . . . these pots and pans aren't clean enough. You're going to have to stay later and do a better job.
Lear70
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Thanks, General.
waveflyer
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Retarded flame.
I agree with the posters on the UAL/cal thread. What's important are the long term affects- getting set too hard on one form of SLI or another is very shortsighted. AT is a growing company and wn is VERY well positioned.
IF this possible merger will put the combined entity in a stronger position, than we ought to help facilitate that and not get too wrapped up in the greed of the million varied possibilities of an SLI. Frontier was a very different thing and probably wasnt going to happen- but I did feel like many of my brethren's attitudes were militant and short sighted.
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md83drvr
Active member
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- Nov 26, 2001
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Last month with more classes starting soon. Currently interviewing, the company has said they will hire 159 this year.
Lear70
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None taken. :beer:
It's not about "deserving" anything, it's about keeping your Quality of Life, that's all. Not personal, just life.
DonVerita
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- Aug 24, 2002
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- 575
InstructorDude has surfaced again with his typical anti-AAI drivel.
Go play in the road little boy.
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