AirTran thoughts on Kelly's Disposal of SL10

[NuGuy]

Current junior captains at DAL are +15 years in NYC, so I'm not sure if that's any kind of better option.

Nu

 

[redflyer65]

Maybe he was factoring in the large DL retirements. That might drop it to 10yrs pretty quickly.

 

[PCL_128]

Yep, 15 years now is only because of the increase to age 65.

 

[Lear70]

Wait the hang up was the seniority integration?

We don't know what their reasoning was for not taking the pilots with the planes and how the talks specifically went, beyond what we are told by Southwest management that they asked if they wanted the pilots and Delta said "No, we don't want to do another seniority integration while the dust is still settling from the last one, we just want the planes". Again, can't say more about why, if it was that simplistic of an exchange, it's not enough to satisfy our Scope language and it remains to be seen if it really WAS that simple of an exchange, or if SWA management just abbreviated the talks on that subject in our initial questioning of the issue.

Most of us are buried at SWA with 20 year upgrades. A staple at Delta is a ten year upgrade.

Yep, that's me too, looking at a 22 year upgrade from my original hire date. The estimated retirements at Delta due to age 65 are just a few this year, 100 or so next year, then it starts jumping pretty quick, 150 in 2014, 200 in 2015, 250 in 2016, 350 in 2017, 450 in 2018, 550 in 2019, 650 in 2020, and 850+ per year starting 2021 for 4 years. Then there's people who are going to medical out, plus people who take early retirement with lump sums offered every now and then raising those numbers yearly.

If you go to Delta now and you're in the bottom 20% of the employee group at a combined AAI/SWA now, you'll upgrade faster at Delta than you will at SWA unless SWA starts growing more than 5% per year for at least 4 years in a row.

Pay is the same as SWA, give or take, why is my union so bad at this.

No.

Narrow-body pay is the same between Delta and SWA within the next few years. However, a pilot who is 40 years old or younger will make over $1 Million more over his/her career at Delta than they will at SWA because of access to Widebody pay.

737 700/800 max F/O pay rate at Delta now is $129 an hour and matches SWA rates in 3 years. 747/400 max F/O pay rate at Delta is $160 an hour now and goes up considerably in 3 years. Delta has 3rd year F/O's sitting in a widebody, some were holding 767 F/O in their initial new-hire class out of JFK.

737 700/800 max CA pay rate at Delta now is $188 an hour and matches SWA in 3 years. 747/400 max CA rate is $235 a year and also goes up a decent amount in 3 years. Even now that's $18,800 a month, or about $225,600 a year at 80 hours of monthly credit on 18 days off a month, closer to $250k a year in 3 years.

Can a SWA CA do better? Sure, if you want to sacrifice your days off. Can they do better EVERY month consistently without going below 18 days off a month? Not from what I've seen.

The other part of that equation is that if someone leaves here now to go to Delta, they will retire in the top 10% of the Delta seniority list if they're under 40. I'm 40 and due to the slow attrition rate and being fairly junior as a result of the integration for my age (88%), I will never touch the top 50% of the CA list at Southwest (top 25% of the total list).

I imagine we will likely lose some people to Delta when they start hiring again. Their financials aren't as good as Southwest, but they're making good money, paying down high-interest debt (playing the typical management shell game of underfunding long-term pension obligations and paying down higher interest debt, gambling that by the time they pay down their higher interest debt, they will still have time to re-fund the pensions) and seem to be doing better than most other Legacies. I personally don't think they're going anywhere, but I never thought we'd see 15 years of consecutive losses for AA and them facing some tough decisions to survive, so I could be wrong.

All in all, if you're under 40 and want to fly heavy metal international, your upgrade will be faster at Delta, and you'll make more money with more days off as a senior pilot. If you simply prefer the culture and lifestyle of a SWA pilot, assuming the premium pay system doesn't go away in upcoming Sec 6 negotiations, then you'll be better off sticking around.

I've always said, if you have the option, picking the carrier that suits your personality (if you're lucky enough to have that option) will go a long way in long-term career happiness. That and developing some kind of hobby outside of flying.

 

[scoreboardII]

Just a word of warning, there is a long list of folks who thought it would be better to jump ship to United, Delta, and AA back in the day, none of those stories ended well.

SWA was never a place to make big money, just safe money. But that may be a problem as this company stops doing all the things they did right, and start doing all the things they know the big guys did wrong, case in point, recent fare sale debacle.

 

[madjack]

Fedex, UPS would be a better choice

 

[PCL_128]

scoreboard, the problem for a lot of us is the ATL domicile. Personally, I have no desire to fly widebody international. If it was up to me, I'd never fly west of the Mississippi, in fact. So I would probably be much happier with SWA's style of flying. But, it's looking like I'll spend the next 10+ years commuting, because even if they do open up an ATL domicile, it will probably be for fewer pilots than we have who live here, let alone some SWA pilots who want to be based here. So, that changes things for me and a lot of other ATN pilots. An ATL domicile is a sure thing at Delta. And if I have to commute anyway, then UAL looks like a better option with their new CBA, because upgrade is far quicker. So I'm having a very difficult time trying to see how SWA is worthwhile, even though I prefer the SWA style flying. If they would just commit to a large ATL domicile, then things would be much different.

 

[Lear70]

Fedex, UPS would be a better choice

Yeah, except for that whole night flying thing.

I gave up my vampire freight dog lifestyle a decade or so ago...

 

[Lear70]

scoreboard, the problem for a lot of us is the ATL domicile. Personally, I have no desire to fly widebody international. If it was up to me, I'd never fly west of the Mississippi, in fact. So I would probably be much happier with SWA's style of flying. But, it's looking like I'll spend the next 10+ years commuting, because even if they do open up an ATL domicile, it will probably be for fewer pilots than we have who live here, let alone some SWA pilots who want to be based here. So, that changes things for me and a lot of other ATN pilots. An ATL domicile is a sure thing at Delta. And if I have to commute anyway, then UAL looks like a better option with their new CBA, because upgrade is far quicker. So I'm having a very difficult time trying to see how SWA is worthwhile, even though I prefer the SWA style flying. If they would just commit to a large ATL domicile, then things would be much different.

Ummmm... UAL?

I haven't seen their new CBA but I'm not hearing nice things about Scope. Not sure what that will do to their domestic block hours...

And how many people do they still have on furlough? They might hire 3 or 4 years from now... maybe...

 

[waveflyer]

Lear, that's nice conjecture- but what was your "upgrade" time at AT when first hired? What was your expected career earnings when first hired? Things change in the airlines remarkably fast- ALL airlines. How valid are forecasts so far off into the future?

The point being, if you want a number at delta, than you can fight for that- but any damages- from all the attorney's in my life- is very very hard to prove, Bc you don't have REAL data until after the fact.

You cool with damages being awarded in 15 years? Bc that's how long it'll take. What happens if Swa gets 787's? And $250k/year?
Most do that here w/o trying, so I wouldn't put that up on the grand pedestal. From a guy who got to eat the carrot for a few years at a legacy: it's not worth the hyperbole.

But do not get it twisted- if you want to be at delta, you should pursue EVERY avenue possible for making it happen. And don't let the door hit you in the arse on the way out.
That's my biggest problem with GK pulling the trigger on AT- I don't want anybody bidding in the system who doesn't want to be here.