I feel bad for your friend looking at a furlough, but there's not a chance in hell that we'll take any concessions. I'm already underpaid as it is.
I'm not so sure about that... especially if the company comes out and says they're looking to furlough 200-300 guys if they don't get "temporary cuts".
Besides the not-so-fuzzy response I got from PL, the letter from MB was pretty clear that he expects furlough announcement and company requests for concessions and didn't come out and say that the NPA wouldn't consider such a request. In fact, what he DID say was:
[FONT="]Our goal is to work for a viable airline with a long-term future that will provide all AirTran pilots with a stable, healthy career. [/FONT]
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[/FONT] That, to me, says they think they're coming and are going to take a serious look at it. That's one of the reasons I submitted my comments on the private board last night; want to make sure there's no mistaking my position in regards to DFR issues with any proposed LOA or T.A.
My issues aside, you're going to have a lot of scared pilots out there right now. There's going to be over 1,000 pilots on the street again by the end of the year and no one's really hiring, even the regionals; several of my Lear F/O's have interviewed and been tentatively hired by 4 different regionals, then put on "indefinite hold" for class dates.
You and I know pilot concessions are a drop in the bucket towards the making or breaking of a major airline, but we represent probably 5% of the pilot population (most of which are on this board which is why you get a 90% hard-line response on here, but only 40-60% when it comes to actual vote); most of them will vote for whoever has the loudest voice while still being a safe bet. That's why we were able to kill the T.A. last summer; "current book is better than the proposed T.A." people knew what they had and could continue to live under it until something better came along.
This is a different ballgame. Up to 30% of the seniority list is affected: Captains displaced to F/O, F/O's furloughed. Even if 20% of those voted No, you'd still have 25% of the total seniority list voting Yes to the cuts to save their jobs/positions. Then you have the 10% of the pilots who vote for "whatever is best for the company", no matter what. That's 35% of the pilot group. Say 5% more who don't want to be back on reserve with that reduction, and now you're at 40% of the pilot group voting Yes. All they need from the rest of the pilots is 1 in 4 of them to vote Yes for the concessions, and it would be done.
No one is going to stand up and fight it as vocally as we did, as they see what's happened to the person who last spoke out so vocally AND there's no "safe" ground to lobby from in this scenario.
Fear is a powerful motivator and, if concessions come to vote from the BoD, especially with a "recommend" endorsement and, IMHO, even with a "neutral" endorsement, I think it will pass. Not that I'm saying it should, I just understand the old ALPA adage that's true no matter what union you work under:
"Hearts and minds"...