Airtran-Midwest getting closer to a deal?

[bestpilot]

If you listen to the web cast carefully there are subtle hints in there that might give some clues as to what's next after the Midex acquisition. When I was in recurrent last summer Joe was asked about some hypothetical merger possibilities that only included merging with one other airline and each time his response was "you guys are not thinking big enough." Take from that what you will but I believe that the plan may include another merger after the Midex deal is complete. We shall see.

Da Tranny gonna be buyin SWA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AWWWWW YYEAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

Ding! You peeps now free to move aboutz da Tranny!

 

[cl65capt]

A little off the topic but did anyone else notice quite a few 102 numbers bid 737 fo. Sort of suprising considering they arent that far from an upgrade.

 

[gt1900]

Sorry Lear... But if you leave a good Major/LCC (not talking upward progression that would happen if you leave a commuter) for greener pastures only looking 2 or 3 years down the road, well, your making a huge mistake.. For many guys its a 30 year career, but yet, many only look 2 or 3 years in the future, that is rediculous??? That makes no sense what so ever. When choosing a career you need to look at the entire time you plan on staying at a company, that way you can compensate for bumps in the road... You may be willing to leave a company with lots of seniortiy, but I am not. I saw too many guys lose thier jobs, houses, and their lives after the big road bump of 9/11.. I also saw guys leave good jobs like ALA, SWA, Fedex, and such for the highest paying jobs at UAL, DAL, and others... If most of those guys would have stayed at thier original jobs they would be 10x better off, and they would now be able to afford the nice house, boat, and retirment you talk so highly about. Especially now that SWA, ALA, F9 and everyone else is making more than the legacy carriers. Like I said, seniority is everything, Im not willing to give mine up.......... As far as airline managment being "honorable and ethical" Dude, your living in a fantasy world, this is the airlines, none of them are "honorable and ethical", with few exception, they never have been, and never will................ The only constant in the airlines is the cyclical behavior of the airlines.... How many guys at SWA would have thought 7 years ago they would be the highest paid pax pilots in the US?? Guess what, the airlines are on their way to recovery, but, somewhere in the future the chit's gonna hit the fan and they will start losing money and start furloughing again.. The guys who make it through the most unscathed will be the senior pilots, not the guys who jump from job to job...

 

[Lear70]

Sorry Lear... But if you leave a good Major/LCC (not talking upward progression that would happen if you leave a commuter) for greener pastures only looking 2 or 3 years down the road, well, your making a huge mistake..

You made a sweeping generalization that didn't include anything about majors for majors or commuters for majors.

Now you want to modify your original statement. That's fine, but I'm going to poke holes in that, too.

For many guys its a 30 year career, but yet, many only look 2 or 3 years in the future, that is rediculous??? That makes no sense what so ever.

First, "whatsoever" is one word.

Secondly, I never said I was only looking 2 or 3 years in the future. I said that I'm not willing to add 3, 4, or 5 years (or more) to my upgrade when there are other majors out there with a better pay scale.

Ty got it, so did others. You missed the point, probably because you don't work here and didn't bother to read the entire thread post by post.

When choosing a career you need to look at the entire time you plan on staying at a company, that way you can compensate for bumps in the road... You may be willing to leave a company with lots of seniortiy, but I am not.

Again, you missed the point.

I was talking about myself and other F/O's in the bottom 50% of the F/O seniority list (which puts us in the bottom 25% of the system list - rather junior) leaving if our upgrade time lengthens dramatically.

YOU made the assumption I was talking about "leaving a company with lots of seniority", I never said that. You failed to pay attention to the entire context of the discussion which means you probably failed to read ALL the posts in their entirety.

So... no bonus points for you this round. Go back to the beginning and actually READ what I (and others who are in the same position) wrote about being JUNIOR and getting shoved down several years more from upgrade and other alternatives if that happens.

I saw too many guys lose thier jobs, houses, and their lives after the big road bump of 9/11.. I also saw guys leave good jobs like ALA, SWA, Fedex, and such for the highest paying jobs at UAL, DAL, and others... If most of those guys would have stayed at thier original jobs they would be 10x better off, and they would now be able to afford the nice house, boat, and retirment you talk so highly about. Especially now that SWA, ALA, F9 and everyone else is making more than the legacy carriers. Like I said, seniority is everything, Im not willing to give mine up..........

There you go again on that rant that has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE DIRECTION THIS THREAD HAS TAKEN.

ZERO ZILCH NADA NOTHING.

Again, go back to the beginning and realize I've been talking about guys in their first two years here finding another major carrier with better pay and benefits from day 1 (with the exception of CAL which more than breaks even in year 2).

PAY ATTENTION!

As far as airline managment being "honorable and ethical" Dude, your living in a fantasy world, this is the airlines, none of them are "honorable and ethical", with few exception, they never have been, and never will................ The only constant in the airlines is the cyclical behavior of the airlines.... How many guys at SWA would have thought 7 years ago they would be the highest paid pax pilots in the US?? Guess what, the airlines are on their way to recovery, but, somewhere in the future the chit's gonna hit the fan and they will start losing money and start furloughing again.. The guys who make it through the most unscathed will be the senior pilots, not the guys who jump from job to job...

Jesus, man... talking about going off on a rant.

Again, read everything I posted, from the beginning, and maybe you'll get it this time. I wasn't talking about the SENIOR guys bailing... This is my 4th airline, laid off twice, NOT my first rodeo. Take your rant elsewhere where it might actually apply.

With reading comprehension skills like that, are you SURE you're an airline pilot? Better let the other guy read the QRH.

 

[Lear70]

A little off the topic but did anyone else notice quite a few 102 numbers bid 737 fo. Sort of suprising considering they arent that far from an upgrade.

Yeah, I saw that.

Two of the four are previous coworkers of mine. One of them is a little "different", but a very nice guy and borderline genius-level intelligence, not to mention extremely financially savvy. The other guy is no Duditz, either, and both are probably banking on this going through.

They probably did it to protect their relative seniority in case the fences only extend to the 717's and a bunch of extremely senior MEH guys bid down to ATL and push a large number of 717 F/O's back into buildup or reserve lines.

Both of them are about 1 year from upgrade and are playing the odds that their upgrade will be pushed back by the integration (a reasonable gamble) and aren't worried about a 2 year seat lock if upgrade doubles for them anyway.

If the deal doesn't happen (outside bet IMHO) or the MEH guys get stapled (again, not likely), they suffer a year extra as an F/O but upgrade close to holding a line instead of sitting reserve. If it all does happen, they'll be sitting pretty fenced into a seniority list that the MEH guys can't touch as F/O's for several years.

 

[gt1900]

Actually lear.... I am in the bottom seniority at AAI, with less than 2 years... So nice try... Am I hearing this right.. Your on your 4th airline and have been laid off twice and your thinking about leaving for your fifth airline??? Wow, amazing.. And yep, I must be stupid.. If everything stays the same at AAI I'm gonna have to settle for the top 1% of the seniority list, so I must be stupid to have gotten hired so young.. So tell me, with the exception of SWA, Fedex or UPS... How are you gonna give up second year pay at AAI with even a 5 or 6 yr upgrade and start over to make more money somewhere else??? UAL, DAL, NWA, ALA, F9, USAir, JBlue???Ain't gonna happen. CAL and AMR would be close... SWA, Fedex, UPS??? Sure, but SWA is no guarantee, no airline has been at the top forever... Im not trying to get in a pissing match with you, but when you crunch the numbers I think you would be suprised.. Once you hit 2nd year pay at AAI it is really tough to leave and go somewhere else (with 3 exceptions, CO would depend on upgrade time at AAI) and be wealthier 30 years later, even with a 5 yr upgrade at AAI...

 

[Lear70]

Actually lear.... I am in the bottom seniority at AAI, with less than 2 years... So nice try...

Then why were you trying to argue something about being in the "top of the seniority list" and leaving when I was OBVIOUSLY not talking about the top guys? WTF?

Am I hearing this right.. Your on your 4th airline and have been laid off twice and your thinking about leaving for your fifth airline??? Wow, amazing.. And yep, I must be stupid..

Guess so. If you have been here less than two years and would choose to stay if we acquired MEH and it pushed your upgrade back 3-5 years (if you're lucky) rather than go to FDX or SWA where your pay would DOUBLE over pay here in 4 years and make $2M - $3 Million MORE over an entire career (FDX / UPS). Or maybe it's ME who's on the short bus.

If everything stays the same at AAI I'm gonna have to settle for the top 1% of the seniority list, so I must be stupid to have gotten hired so young..

Again, you're changing the debate to something OTHER than what I said.

I never said I was going to leave if things stayed the same, now did I? Now be careful, look back and read,,, did I say that?

Nope. I only said I'd look for other opportunities IF the MEH deal went through AND IF the seniority integration screwed us (again, the JUNIOR people).

Again, you need to stay on topic and not digress off into your own spin and dragging me into it with things I never said.

And congratulations on getting hired "so young". A lot of us haven't been as fortunate (or is it stupid?) Yeah, it was our stupidity that caused all those furloughs these past several years. It was my stupidity that put me in the left seat of a 727 at 29 years old. Of course! How could I have been so blind? I see it all SO clearly now.

Hint: be careful about being so happy and proud of being here so young. One of these days a nasty rock could shatter that glass castle you've built (speaking from experience).

So tell me, with the exception of SWA, Fedex or UPS... How are you gonna give up second year pay at AAI with even a 5 or 6 yr upgrade and start over to make more money somewhere else??? UAL, DAL, NWA, ALA, F9, USAir, JBlue???Ain't gonna happen. CAL and AMR would be close... SWA, Fedex, UPS??? Sure, but SWA is no guarantee, no airline has been at the top forever... Im not trying to get in a pissing match with you, but when you crunch the numbers I think you would be suprised.. Once you hit 2nd year pay at AAI it is really tough to leave and go somewhere else (with 3 exceptions, CO would depend on upgrade time at AAI) and be wealthier 30 years later, even with a 5 yr upgrade at AAI...

Again, you're taking your own thoughts and trying to drag me into them when I never said that.

In fact, if you'll READ back a couple pages, you'll find where I addressed those exact companies (SWA, CAL, FDX, UPS) as other targets if the MEH deal went through and the seniority went badly.

You REALLY need to stop, read back a couple pages, and THINK before you post 'cause you're kinda starting to look a little silly arguing with me making points that I already made 2 pages back.

I'm not even going there with you telling me to compare airline pay; I've been doing that as an expert witness in wrongful termination suits since 1999.

Wrong tree, my friend.

 

[gt1900]

Lear.... Ok.. Your right... First off, your arguing something you don't have any clue on, none of us do.. BUT.. Lets say we get screwed a little. I jump ship to SWA and im in the bottom of the seniority list when they buy Alaska and integrate seniority by date of hire.. Guess what, I just got screwed again.. I would have been better off staying at AAI with some seniority.. Thats my point.. Fedex and UPS aside (I have no desire to fly nights at all). You have no idea what may happen at SWA, CAL, or anywhere else.. Why would you give up a job with junior people below you to hopefully make more money at SWA?? You really have no idea what the airlines are gonna look like in 10, 20, or even 30 years... At least at AAI you know you are at a decent company with seniority.. I know of a guy who left Fedex to go to UAL in 2000, he then got furloughed and ended up at F9.. Fedex might not have been the greenest pasture, but he had a great job with good stability.. I don't care who you are, if your in the bottom 25% of the seniority at any carrier, your job is not that stabile. I will ride out the merger, hope for the best, and stay at AAI, at least I have the AAI guys hired after me below me. I don't live in a glass house, I prepare everyday for the worst.. BTW.. I do believe we will get a contract that is acceptable to most people, it may take another 6 months or even a year, but it will come. The company is just playing hard ball right now, they know they can't do it forever, especially if we keep making money... But hey.. If you wanna continue to try and ridicule me feel free, your opinion's really don't mean chit to me!!! I might just be a little smarter than you think...

 

[Lear70]

I wasn't trying to insult your intelligence. I just couldn't figure out why you kept arguing things with me that I hadn't even said...?

As far as arguing something I don't have any clue on... All I was doing was pointing out the math based on the number of pilots, staffing ratios, and planned delivery schedules. I wasn't trying to be clairvoyant, just working the numbers and the math doesn't lie.

That said, I don't really care WHAT you do, stay here if your seniority gets knocked down 400 numbers; it doesn't matter a bit to me. Just remember, you can't plan your career (or your life for that matter) around "what if" things go bad at other carriers; all you can do is look at what's happening NOW and make your best bet on the future and go for it.

We'll know for sure in about 30 years, won't we?

Good luck to all of us!

 

[STL717]

Trying to guess the future is pretty difficult….

All you can do is make the best decision with the available information when required to make a decision.

Ten years is far into the future, guessing where an airline will be in 30 years is impossible.

Any employment puts you at the mercy of management’s ability to create and sustain a prosperous company.