Capt.LongThrust
Well-known member
- Joined
- Jun 21, 2005
- Posts
- 121
It's outside the 60 minute window, so too late to edit my original post, but a bit of research reveals the total number of a/c operated by the company is 143, not 137, and its total number of pilots is approximately 1667. It doesn't change it much, but the original post ought to have read as follows:
The Company currently operates 143 aircraft and has approximately 1667 pilots, keeping to its historic ratio of about 12 pilots/aircraft (11.64 to be exact).
Per Fornaro's presentation at today's Merrill Lynch Transportation Conference, the Company plans a fleet of 135-140 aircraft through 2009. Let's call it 135 and assume they reduce the pilot/plane ratio to 11/1. (Any further reduction would likely require some serious changes to the present contract, changes unlikely to be agreed to any time soon, IMO.)
That brings you down to 1485 pilots for a loss of 182... IF they get down to 135 aircraft.
Assuming they stay at 143 a/c for the time being, and reduce staffing to 11/1, it takes you to down 1507 pilots for a loss of 94.
And the number I keep hearing is an initial furlough of 90-120.
FWIW.
I would be careful throwing out the simple math. I think if it comes to furloughs the company will ask for voluntary furloughs first. You might be surprised how many guys might take that, Captains and F/Os. The company will try to do all it can to prevent furloughing a first year F/O. At 40 some bones an hour and no B fund contribution, they are cheap labor. Not to mention the training cycles it creates with a two fleet airline. I am not saying NOT to update the resume and find your logbook, but to it may not be time to freak out yet. I could be way off base but I think this oil thing might be close to blowing its wad. Only time will tell. Good luck to all of us.