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AirTran expansion likely, says Hoeksema

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FlyWolf

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Mar 2, 2002
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AirTran expansion likely, says Hoeksema

But suitor's plans for Midwest aren't sustainable, he says

By AVRUM D. LANK
[email protected]

Posted: April 18, 2007

AirTran Holdings Inc. will keep its promise to expand service in Milwaukee if it is successful in its hostile takeover bid for Midwest Air Group Inc., Midwest Chairman Timothy E. Hoeksema conceded Tuesday.
But the carrier based in Orlando, Fla., will find that the increase is not sustainable, he added in a talk to about 200 at an Economic Forum sponsored by the Milwaukee Jewish Federation at the Jewish Home and Care Center. In an interview after the speech, Hoeksema declined to say how long it would take for the strategy to fail.
AirTran has laid out specific plans for increasing service in Milwaukee should its offer succeed. Among other things, the company plans to have 215 daily departures from Milwaukee by 2009, which it says is a 34% increase from Midwest's existing schedule.
AirTran says that by lowering fares, marketing more aggressively in northern Illinois and increasing connection possibilities at Milwaukee's Mitchell International Airport, it will generate the traffic needed to make its plans work.
Included in those plans is doing away with Midwest's two-across seating and adding more seats per flight.
Hoeksema said, however, that "good customer service" is an important part of running an airline. He also questioned AirTran's increased passenger projections, saying they would require stimulating markets much more than is prudent to expect.
Illinois won't yield much

In particular, Hoeksema said he doubted AirTran could get a lot more passengers from northern Illinois.
"There are not huge opportunities (in Illinois), as other people might think there are," he said. Fare differentials between Mitchell and Chicago airports have closed in recent years, and Hoeksema noted that Midwest already has a lot of frequent fliers from northern Illinois.
Midwest has been pursuing its own expansion plan, which is more modest and more in tune with the Milwaukee market, Hoeksema said.
The Oak Creek-based company is parent of Midwest and Skyway airlines.
Midwest last week rejected as too low AirTran's offer of $9 cash plus 0.5842 of a share of its stock for each share of Midwest. At Tuesday's closing prices, that was worth $15.90, a 12.4% premium over Midwest's closing price of $14.15 a share.
In his speech, Hoeksema reiterated that there is more long-term value in Midwest as a stand-alone entity. In the interview, Hoeksema declined to say what price might be right for Midwest, merely that "$15 isn't it."
Midwest stock was down 20 cents in trading Tuesday. AirTran shares closed at $11.81, down 2 cents.
 
In particular, Hoeksema said he doubted AirTran could get a lot more passengers from northern Illinois.
"There are not huge opportunities (in Illinois), as other people might think there are," he said. Fare differentials between Mitchell and Chicago airports have closed in recent years, and Hoeksema noted that Midwest already has a lot of frequent fliers from northern Illinois.

And I thought Midwest marketing has been targeting northern IL quite aggressively (for Midwest anyway). I've heard the ads on 720, which is a good station for them to advertise on. Guess the train service isn't as big of a hitter as they thought it would be. It just shows that only a few people will come a little ways for the service (arguably just less of a hassle to fly out of MKE), but if they're going to travel for cheap, they won't cross the line. Airtran could very well do better with the latter.
 
I've said it before and I tend to agree with your boss regarding AirTran sustaining the planned growth in MKE and drawing passengers from the northern burbs of Chicago. I hope I'm wrong for both of our carriers sake if this deal does go through..........
 
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Ya, but Hoeksema also seems to think you can expand and make money using 50 seat RJ's.. Something Airtran already tried and proved it doesn't make sense.. Expansion with RJ's will kill Midex.... BTW.. How was the first quarter profit.. Im curious how Hoeksema and Skornicka are going to spin this one, doesn't sound like AAI's business plan is quite as flawed as they want people to believe..
 
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gt1900, here is what they said in the recent BoD letter:

"Midwest expects to report a profitable first quarter on a GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) basis. It expects its first quarter loss on a non-GAAP basis to be slightly greater than the loss reported last year on a GAAP basis. Therefore, Midwest now expects its full year 2007 non-GAAP earnings per diluted share to fall in the range of $1.30 to $1.50, which excludes expenses relating to the impact of mark-to-market fuel hedge accounting and costs associated with AirTran's offers. Midwest is unable to provide a forecast of full-year GAAP net earnings at this time"

This is really not a very good news for Midwest at this time, you can't lower the earnings two month after you gave one and specially that early in the year, I think that airTran won a point with shareholders after that revised earnings by Midwest.
 
anyone know the annual increase in passnger traffic at MKE the last three years and what the 1st quarter was this year. could an airline such as airtran increase capacity that much ( as it states) and expect people to show up.

southwest has always been famous for increasing traffic wherever it goes. it helped put Midway out of business at RDU.

Does Airtran have the "Southwest Effect?"
 
anyone know the annual increase in passnger traffic at MKE the last three years and what the 1st quarter was this year. could an airline such as airtran increase capacity that much ( as it states) and expect people to show up.

southwest has always been famous for increasing traffic wherever it goes. it helped put Midway out of business at RDU.

Does Airtran have the "Southwest Effect?"

air tran seems to think it can suck away AA/UAL customers from the north suburbs of chicago.
 
lol, I know, he also forgot to add the airTran rudder trim tab on ship 902ME. Yes we have been flying with an airTran painted trim tab in the rudder of 902 for few month now, wonder if its a sign of things to come :)
 
Flywolf.. I undestand what the bod letter said.. My point was that Hoeksema and Skornicka blasted AAI because of 3 loosing quarters and touted the fact that Midex had made money for 2 or 3 quarters. You can only twist the books for so many quarters before you actually have to show real numbers.. The fact that Midex can't forecast a full years GAAP for the entire year should say something. BTW.. Have you seen the forecast for AAI's earning for 2007?? Before the end of 1st quarter they were forecasting a first quarter loss of 7 million... Now (revised on 4/17/07) they are calling for a first quarter profit of 1 million, 2nd quarter 46 million, 3rd quarter 24 million, and 4th quarter 16 million.. They beat 1st quarter earnings by 8 million. Even if they meat earnings for the other 3 quarters, it will be the best yearly earnings AAI has ever seen, around 77 million for the year . 2008 earnings estimates are 111 million.... It is very obvious that Hoeksema and Skornicka could give a chit about stock holders and employees... They care only for their jobs, and thats it.. Hoeksema is reeling trying to trash AAI in anyway he can, the only problem is he is proving his ineptness every time he opens his mouth. I believe AAI can and will get the pax to MKE like they predict, and I truely think Hoeksema knows they can as well...
 
Actually the $1.30 to 1.50 Midwest is forecasting = 40 Millions in profit for 2007 (if they don't lower it anymore)

RJ's, No, it won't kill us, actually we needed 50 seat RJ's for a while now, don't know if you remember we actually ordered few EMB145 and then canceled the order because of our financial situation. The company did the next best thing with Skywest, truly I don't think its a negative thing.

Now, they can concentrate on the MD80 replacement and not worry about the 50 seat market for now.

We have a lot of smaller markets that doesn't support a 717, Airtran didn't like the RJ and that doesn't mean the RJ will be a bad thing for Midwest, just way too many variables between the two airlines here.
 
All you have to do is look no further than Horizon Airlines.. When they were researching the replacement of the F28 they looked at 50 seat RJ's.. Horizon said the 50 seat RJ doesn't make any sense because you can't make any money with it because the operating costs were so high, thus the reason they bought 70 seat RJ's. Even now, Horizon basically says the 70 seat RJ is a break even airplane and they make their money with the Q400.. You guys can say what you want, but Midex needs RJ's like SWA "needs" RJ's.. Airtran tried it, and it didn't work.. But Hoeksema may know something that nobody else does..
 
All you have to do is look no further than Horizon Airlines.. When they were researching the replacement of the F28 they looked at 50 seat RJ's.. Horizon said the 50 seat RJ doesn't make any sense because you can't make any money with it because the operating costs were so high, thus the reason they bought 70 seat RJ's. Even now, Horizon basically says the 70 seat RJ is a break even airplane and they make their money with the Q400.. You guys can say what you want, but Midex needs RJ's like SWA "needs" RJ's.. Airtran tried it, and it didn't work.. But Hoeksema may know something that nobody else does..

100% of horizon's RPM's are from RJ's and turboprops.

from midwest's latest 10K (in '000's):

Midwest Airlines RPM - 3,827,111
times 19/18 (again conservative as this factor assumes 717 capacity is the same as an MD80) for 2 MD80 growth = 4,039,728

Skyway's RPM - 259,283
times 350% for a conservative estimate* for Skywest = 907,491

* should be 1250 (25x50) / 504 (32x11 + 19x8) but 1900's will be leaving soon

thus Midwest's RPM's are only 18.3% generated from RJ's including Skywest (around the same percentages as United and Delta).

This does not also include the real possibility of Midwest EXPANDING capacity by 13.6% on their 717 fleet (going to 100 seats instead of 88) without adding an airplane, which would further boost Midwest Airline's RPM's by 10%.

I have been trying to get a copy of the Midwest contract, but have not been successful. What does it say regarding scope of Midwest Airlines flying? That would be what would concern me.
 
Citation, if you live in MKE just stop by the ALPA office on Howell, Miss T will be more than happy to give you a copy.
 

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