AirTran expansion likely, says Hoeksema

[Murphy]

pax loads were good on my trip last week...even midweek. Most flights out of the Florida cltles are full.

 

[Lear70]

We've been in the high 90's to completely full on almost every flight, and I'm flying the crappy BWI-DAY, DAY-LGA, LGA-PHF stuff.

Except that I really like the PHF overnights. Good hotel, long overnight, free breakfast, RIGHT beside the mall, lots of good places to get beer and food when you first get in, and free Bally's right across the road so I can keep trying to get my fat a*s back into shape...

 

[FlyWolf]

Someone sold almost 14,000 of Midwest shares right at the end of Friday trading day, hmmm.... what does that mean, wonder if they know something we don't know.

 

[CitationLover]

Someone sold almost 14,000 of Midwest shares right at the end of Friday trading day, hmmm.... what does that mean, wonder if they know something we don't know.

and Citadel becomes the third largest shareholder at AAI around the same time.......

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0704200411apr21,0,5964636.story?coll=chi-business-hed

 

[FlyWolf]

Maybe they are thinking that the deal might not go through? Because once airTran pulls out of the deal their shares will go up and Midwest shares will take a hit.

 

[CitationLover]

Maybe they are thinking that the deal might not go through? Because once airTran pulls out of the deal their shares will go up and Midwest shares will take a hit.

well the flightinfo warren buffet was wrong as it closed the week at $14.10 and not tanked to $5 like he/she predicted. AAI peaked right after the exchange offer at $12.88 on January 16. it appears the market does not want this to happen. AAI was hurting before this midwest merger talks as the stock was down close to 50% since March of 2006. perhaps with their stock deflated the midwest deal was a defensive manuever to avoid their own buyout talks.

 

[Lear70]

AAI peaked right after the exchange offer at $12.88 on January 16. it appears the market does not want this to happen.

Yeah, the stock peaked, and hasn't retreated significantly since. I think it's a bit early to say the market doesn't want it to happen. People are keeping the Midwest stock WAY too overinflated to state that.

AAI was hurting before this midwest merger talks as the stock was down close to 50% since March of 2006.

You might clarify that AAI stockholders were hurting. The airline has been doing just fine.

perhaps with their stock deflated the midwest deal was a defensive manuever to avoid their own buyout talks.

THAT is a very likely possibility. I've always said I didn't really understand the value of purchasing a marginally profitable company with a base so d*mn far north.

On the surface, the fleet plan works, but dig a little deeper, and you have a largely different operation, but I'm not in management either, so there's probably a lot more to it than that to make a profitable combined entity.

I've been waiting for someone to buy us with our cheap 737's coming, fracture us (Southwest), and sell off the pieces. Giving Midwest a deal with guaranteed low financing on our 717's and a large ATL hub operation that works fairly well would be a nice way to expand Midwest.

I *HOPE* that doesn't happen, as being on the 717 side of the house would probably be ugly, but it's been a small concern...

 

[CitationLover]

You might clarify that AAI stockholders were hurting. The airline has been doing just fine.

i thought i was by using the stock symbol and not saying Air Tran.

 

[mnboyev]

Its gonna be fun... let the games begin.. Wolf... do ya think Citadel is just positioning to make a little dough? Taking advantage of the fluctuating stock.. Just curious.. this stuff is far too complicated for a ice fisherman like myself... Wonder if Warren B.. drinks a little ol swill now and then?

Who are these fellas that AirTran is trying to get on the board? I googled Galena Aquisition and it did come up with the names... I just didnt follow up and see who they 'really' were and what interest they may have at stake.

AirTran is healthy... you can tell by how "healthy" our FA's are looking... Or did I say hefty.....anywhoo.... Best Wishes to all... Going out on the boat fishing dont ya know. Crappies are in full swing !!!

Merger and Aquisition talks I understand were in full swing at the last negotiation meeting ... Hmmmm...

 

[Lear70]

Merger and Aquisition talks I understand were in full swing at the last negotiation meeting ... Hmmmm...

What makes it more interesting is the fact that they spent the ENTIRE week talking about Scope and M&A.

These items should be easy no-brainers... IF and I do mean IF your management has no intention to screw with your seniority or purchase another aircraft to operate your flights.

That section taking an entire WEEK worth of negotiating time and STILL no T.A. tells me the company isn't willing to simply say "We want our pilots flying our flights and will protect your seniority in a merger or acquisition".

Guess what section I'm turning to RIGHT after I look at the new pay rates in the T.A.?

 

[Citrusflyer]

Just a question, but where did you hear that they talked the entire week over Scope? I have yet to hear one word about anything that happened last week.

 

[Lear70]

NPA email came out late yesterday afternoon.

Without quoting directly from it, it didn't divulge ANYTHING except that they spent nearly the entire time talking about Scope, Merger, and Acquisition.

They mentioned briefly that they submitted an updated compensation section to the company and that the company took it for analysis.

They mentioned no other sections worked on, worked out, or T.A.'d, just reiterated how important Scope, Merger, and Acquisition are and hinted that the current scope doesn't bind AirTran holdings by telling people to read the CURRENT Agreement to look for loopholes.

The next negotiating sessions are scheduled for tomorrow and Thursday.

 

[PCL_128]

Rich, I wouldn't read too much into that. Scope and M & A is always difficult to negotiate, even if they aren't trying to screw you. The language is virtually impossible for a pilot negotiator to write, so the attorneys for both sides are usually the ones negotiating that language. When attorneys get to writing contract language, it takes a while even if it seems straight forward to us. Lawyers can argue for days over the intent of a single word.

 

[Lear70]

I understand it can be "difficult", but 5 FULL days? 8 hours a day for 5 days??

With all the Midwest talk going on plus a need for a replacement airframe in 5-7 years, I'm thinking there's a bit more to it (principally worried about E190 type of flying replacing the 717 in the future by a Mesa/Freedom carrier).

Not to mention the NPA email came right out and said "pay REALLY close attention to Scope and M&A when the T.A. comes out".

Hopefully they'll get it worked out. The murmur in the crew room is that this thing is DOA due to 3 big ticket items being given up: 12 hour max assignable duty day, reserve pay cumulative daily (no more 100+ hour credit months for reserves flying 60-70 hours), no block-or-better on a leg-by-leg basis (given up in a recent LOA for nothing in exchange and rumored to be included in the T.A.).

When the company is profitable, no one in the pilot group sees giving up any work rules as an acceptable outcome. The Wilson Polling data is rumored to have DRAMATICALLY shifted to MUCH higher expectations (due to the improving aviation economy and continued company profitability) which, at this late in the negotiating game, probably isn't helping the NC.

 

[PCL_128]

I understand it can be "difficult", but 5 FULL days? 8 hours a day for 5 days??

I doubt that it was 5 "full" days. Typically, you will show up in the morning with your proposal, give it to management, and they will go away for most of the day for their lawyers to look it over. They'll return at the end of the day with their counter-proposal, and the whole thing starts over again. The NPA has one of ALPA's former attorney's, Seth Rosen, working on the negotiations. Seth is one of the best airline labor attorneys in the business, and he'll go over that thing with a fine tooth comb. Five days is nothing.

With all the Midwest talk going on plus a need for a replacement airframe in 5-7 years, I'm thinking there's a bit more to it (principally worried about E190 type of flying replacing the 717 in the future by a Mesa/Freedom carrier).

Not to mention the NPA email came right out and said "pay REALLY close attention to Scope and M&A when the T.A. comes out".

Don't get me wrong; I'm not trying to downplay the importance of scope. You know how I feel about scope. The entire agreement is worthless without an iron-clad Scope and M & A section. I'm just saying that there's not necessarily any reason to worry that management is trying to outsource your flying simply because the scope discussions are taking a while.

Hopefully they'll get it worked out. The murmur in the crew room is that this thing is DOA due to 3 big ticket items being given up: 12 hour max assignable duty day, reserve pay cumulative daily (no more 100+ hour credit months for reserves flying 60-70 hours), no block-or-better on a leg-by-leg basis (given up in a recent LOA for nothing in exchange and rumored to be included in the T.A.).

As someone hoping to be a 'Tranny pilot in the future, I hope you don't give those things up. Those 100+ hour credits would go a long way towards making up for the payrate cut that first year. Honestly, that's the best reserve pay system in the entire industry. Giving that up would be a huge mistake.