Airtran down to $1.80

[Penguin46]

Good Buy or say Good-Bye
I think good buy.

 

[Flying the Line]

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/prnewswire/200810021613PR_NEWS_USPR_____NY36726.htm

higher loads and lower fuel costs and lower costs overall, I say it is a "good by"

 

[ultrarunner]

I'd agree with that. Overseas markets are down this morning, so I suspect it's going to go lower. Just for grins I might put in a buy at a buck. Been watching it for a bit now....

 

[jmreii]

only time will tell

 

[Daytonaflyer]

I bought some shares. A good company with a good product, and lower prices than their biggest competitor in ATL. Even if it goes down a bit more, I think it'll come up over the next few months.

 

[Thunderchief]

Seems like AAI stock is been under $2 serveral times the last 6 mo or so... Wait a week and it'll be all the way up to $2.50!!! United stock is making me nervous... down 15% in a day, then back up the next. Haven't been keeping up with their metrics much, why so volitile? Seems like they are moving more than all others. ?

-TC

 

[Andy Neill]

Good Buy or say Good-Bye
I think good buy.

Ask yourself if anything has changed for the better in terms of Air Tran's business plan since it was trading at $1.30-$1.50 last July. Is the economy more robust? Fuel is lower, but analysts are showing that AAI will have a loss for the current year and a small loss for next year. That doesn't translate to higher stock prices.

 

[Max Powers]

AAI would be a "good buy" - if Delta wasn't putting the screws to them. Delta is using the profits they make from their overseas routes to subsidize their routes where the compete with AAI. R. Anderson came from NWA the most protective of any major in regard to their routes. This could be trouble for AAI. NWA-DAL have some awesome Route Monoplies which will help to subsidize their attack of AAI.

 

[ASA_DFW]

Delta wants to hurt AirTran, not put them out of business. If AirTran were to go out of business, who will fill the void. My guess would be Southwest and Delta does not want that.

 

[Britpilot]

AAI would be a "good buy" - if Delta wasn't putting the screws to them. Delta is using the profits they make from their overseas routes to subsidize their routes where the compete with AAI. R. Anderson came from NWA the most protective of any major in regard to their routes. This could be trouble for AAI. NWA-DAL have some awesome Route Monoplies which will help to subsidize their attack of AAI.

You are assuming that DAL/NWA routes and gates will all remain after a merger. There may be some concessions if the merger is to go ahead in order to prevent any monopoly in a given city i.e. ATL.
You say that DAL is "putting the screws" to AAI and "using the profits" from international routes to subsidize domestic flying, where is your evidence of that? It seems to me that AAI is doing OK in the current environment. if you are going to make bold statements such as those you need to back it up with some facts.

 

[stall022]

AAI would be a "good buy" - if Delta wasn't putting the screws to them. Delta is using the profits they make from their overseas routes to subsidize their routes where the compete with AAI. R. Anderson came from NWA the most protective of any major in regard to their routes. This could be trouble for AAI. NWA-DAL have some awesome Route Monoplies which will help to subsidize their attack of AAI.

both DAL and NWA stock are down almost 5 dollars each in the last 5 days, AAI is only down about a dollar.. Sounds like AAI is the one putting the hurt on DAL.

Anderson is smarter then that, They know full well that if they put AAI out of business Southwest will move in the next day and put a real hurt on DAL/NWA.

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

Ask yourself if anything has changed for the better in terms of Air Tran's business plan since it was trading at $1.30-$1.50 last July. Is the economy more robust? Fuel is lower, but analysts are showing that AAI will have a loss for the current year and a small loss for next year. That doesn't translate to higher stock prices.

No it actually shows that we will make a profit next year. This year 08 everyone has been hammered except one. But our loss for the year has decreases over 30 million with fuel coming down.
http://investor.airtran.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=64267&p=irol-estimates

 

[Andy Neill]

both DAL and NWA stock are down almost 5 dollars each in the last 5 days,

45%

AAI is only down about a dollar..

43%

Sounds like AAI is the one putting the hurt on DAL.

OK.....

 

[clickclickboom]

actually international is where some of the biggest reductions in revenue are being seen.

I am sure DAL will have funds to try and destroy AAI they are way to arrogant to assume anything less than total domination of their and everyones market.

 

[Max Powers]

You are assuming that DAL/NWA routes and gates will all remain after a merger. There may be some concessions if the merger is to go ahead in order to prevent any monopoly in a given city i.e. ATL.
You say that DAL is "putting the screws" to AAI and "using the profits" from international routes to subsidize domestic flying, where is your evidence of that? It seems to me that AAI is doing OK in the current environment. if you are going to make bold statements such as those you need to back it up with some facts.

I got it straight from one of DALs Conference calls. And I quote "we are trimming domestic capacity system wide, except in all routes where in which we compete with AirTran." So your trying to tell me all those AAI routes are being kept because they are profitable? A more logical conclusion would be they don't want to succeed market share to AAI. I think it is a smart move myself. NWA has destroyed anyone who tries to get into their territory that they have route monoplies. DAL will be doing the same thing

 

[FlyFastLiveSlow]

actually international is where some of the biggest reductions in revenue are being seen.

I am sure DAL will have funds to try and destroy AAI they are way to arrogant to assume anything less than total domination of their and everyones market.

Not to mention the reason they have these funds is that they stole them from their employees, creditors, and shareholders in BK.

 

[Britpilot]

So your trying to tell me all those AAI routes are being kept because they are profitable?

I'm not trying to you anything. I simply asked for some evidence. I still have not seen it yet.

 

[Daytonaflyer]

AirTran will be just fine. Delta isn't doing anything they haven't done before; at least nothing outrageous in respect to airline competition.

Farm Bill HR 2419 was passed; Congress overrode Pres. Bush's veto (thank god) and the Enron Loophole will be totally closed by Sept 2009. Oil prices will continue to fall as investors realize they can no longer make huge profits and it will return to normal pricing.

The current volatility is due to market fears and will calm down after a new president is elected, whomever it may be, and after the bailout/stimulus package effects are felt.

AirTran will return to profitability and I will make a lot of money and so will anybody else who bought in.

 

[Ty Webb]

I got it straight from one of DALs Conference calls. And I quote "we are trimming domestic capacity system wide, except in all routes where in which we compete with AirTran. . . .

That strategy worked so well last time . . . . AAI doubled in size, and DAL went Chapt 11.

I think it is a smart move myself.

Notificatiion that Max thinks it's a smart move should immediately signal the death knell for any idea. :laugh:

NWA has destroyed anyone who tries to get into their territory that they have route monoplies. DAL will be doing the same thing

SWA just announced MSP service. When exactly will NWA start destroying them? Just so I won't miss anything.

 

[Penguin46]

Thanks for the opinions and data. Hopefully we can all make a little money.

R/

Penguin

 

[Max Powers]

both DAL and NWA stock are down almost 5 dollars each in the last 5 days, AAI is only down about a dollar.. Sounds like AAI is the one putting the hurt on DAL.

Anderson is smarter then that, They know full well that if they put AAI out of business Southwest will move in the next day and put a real hurt on DAL/NWA.

Where do I even begin with this one????? Using the base line price of a stock to determine how much value was lost???? Are you an idiot? Look you need to probably use a percentage if your going to use the price of one share. 1 dollar is X percent loss and 5 dollars is Y percent loss. This would be a way to compare. But best thing to do is to look at balance sheets and staying power. Or if you want to determine straight value look at Market Capitalization.

 

[Max Powers]

That strategy worked so well last time . . . . AAI doubled in size, and DAL went Chapt 11.



Notificatiion that Max thinks it's a smart move should immediately signal the death knell for any idea. :laugh:



SWA just announced MSP service. When exactly will NWA start destroying them? Just so I won't miss anything.

Competitors can get into NWA's hubs but not their territories.. For example you'll be able to fly from their hub to your hub but that's about it. History has shown this to be correct. DAL with over 6 billion in the bank can beat off the competition a lot easier then AAI can even exist with its 326 million in liquid assets.

 

[Ty Webb]

DAL with over 6 billion in the bank can beat off the competition

More words of wisdom from Max

 

[Eagle757shark]

Ask yourself if anything has changed for the better in terms of Air Tran's business plan since it was trading at $1.30-$1.50 last July. Is the economy more robust? Fuel is lower, but analysts are showing that AAI will have a loss for the current year and a small loss for next year. That doesn't translate to higher stock prices.

Do some research for yourself: Go to www.airtran.com and look under investor relations, and then earnings. You will see that AirTran as of 10/10/2008 is forecasting to make a $37 million dollar profit for the year 2009.

 

[Andy Neill]

Do some research for yourself: Go to www.airtran.com and look under investor relations, and then earnings. You will see that AirTran as of 10/10/2008 is forecasting to make a $37 million dollar profit for the year 2009.

I agree that the analysts are all over the board on forescast earnings for '09. As of today, the estimates are anywhere from a $0.99 per share profit ($115.9 million) to an $0.82 per share loss ($96 million) for the year. The average of the estimates of the 10 analysts is $0.02 per share = $2.3 million. On the day I made my post, it was something like an $8.5 million loss as the average for the year. If they reach a $37 million profit in 09, that would be a good return on investment. If they hit the mean estimate, it would not.

 

[Murphy]

Atlanta is big enough for a two carrier operation with both carriers making money. I would wager that the Big D would rather have AirTran to compete against than Southwest.

 

[kwick]

Maybe Delta will buy Airtran, then we will see if all the "relative seniority " advocates will be consistant.

Probably not, let's see, a guy half-way up Airtran's list asking the "General?" to bring the gear up.

 

[maxblast72]

Going for 2.70 today. Up more than 50% in one week. While airlines may not be great long term investments, day traders have to love the volatility of some of the smaller airline stocks.