Age 65 Effect on Hiring New Pilots

[fly4unclesam]

I am an AF pilot with about 4 years until I can retire. With "Age 65" now law, I assume that airline hiring at most carriers will drastically slow down for some time. Do you think it will take 5 years for the system to "catch back up" and pilot hiring start again?

Thanks

 

[Truckdriver]

Some airlines are hiring to cover growth right now and some are hiring to cover retirements. Delta is hiring mostly to cover international growth. Scheduled retirements for 2008 were only about 60 and they are projecting to hire 650 by September. So now they might hire 590 or so. UAL on the other hand is hiring to cover retirements so they may slow down to nothing. I think CAL is probably 50/50 growth and retirements and NWA is mostly retirements. Obviously airlines won't hire as many now that they won't have as many retiring, but the hiring will continue and in 5 years we will once again see the numbers get big. I doubt we will see any furloughs due to age 65, but if we see mergers furloughs will be big due to none of the senior guys leaving. It's gonna be a fun year with a recession building, mergers coming, and the old geezers sticking around.

 

[FlyinGuy]

Your seniority at your future airline just jumped about 3 years. Stagnation will happen, so that will work out for you.

 

[AV80R]

Your seniority at your future airline just jumped about 3 years. Stagnation will happen, so that will work out for you.

Didn't think of it that way but hey, you must be a 'half-full' type, right?

 

[SuperFLUF]

.... I think CAL is probably 50/50 growth and retirements and NWA is mostly retirements. Obviously airlines won't hire as many now that they won't have as many retiring, but the hiring will continue and in 5 years we will once again see the numbers get big.....

The rumor at CAL is that the hiring will stop for a while after the January classes. Of course that was probably Friday's plan. Who know's what Monday's plan will be...

As far as the retirements picking back up again in 5 years, I hope so but if you think AAPAD won't be back on the warpath again fighting for age 67 or 70 or the elimination of a specific age all together. You are more optimistic than me.

Certainly some will retire at 60 as long as the unions bargain to keep 60 as the "normal" retirement age but many will stay so it will be difficult to predict the effects on seniority progression. Especially if 65 becomes the new "normal" retirement age in airline contracts. Then most will not be able to afford the penalties involved with retireing early. Especially the loss of "bridge" medical benefits.

 

[ThisistheDream]

How many of the guys approaching 60 will just retire anyways or retire after 61? I have heard a lot of pilots approaching 60 say "I am going to retire at 60 regardless!!" In reality I would expect a lot of those pilots to go against what they say and continue to fly past 60. I could see some of the pilots only fly until 62 or 63 and then say I cant take it anymore and retire prior to 65. If you retire prior to 65 now would there be any penalty for your pension( the lucky ones that still have one that is) that would make them want to fly until 65 vs. retiring at 63 or 64??

 

[iaflyer]

How many of the guys approaching 60 will just retire anyways or retire after 61? I have heard a lot of pilots approaching 60 say "I am going to retire at 60 regardless!!" In reality I would expect a lot of those pilots to go against what they say and continue to fly past 60. I could see some of the pilots only fly until 62 or 63 and then say I cant take it anymore and retire prior to 65. If you retire prior to 65 now would there be any penalty for your pension( the lucky ones that still have one that is) that would make them want to fly until 65 vs. retiring at 63 or 64??

I suspect that the most guys are going to work until they're 65, or close to it. They'll look at their retirement, the top pay they are getting now, and the prospect of sitting around the house watching their wife knit and say, "ehhh.. I'll fly a bit more, just throw the money in the retirement..." then all the sudden they're 65...

 

[Truckdriver]

I suspect that the most guys are going to work until they're 65, or close to it. They'll look at their retirement, the top pay they are getting now, and the prospect of sitting around the house watching their wife knit and say, "ehhh.. I'll fly a bit more, just throw the money in the retirement..." then all the sudden they're 65...

I think your right. If everyone still had a nice fat pension then you would see them all quit at 60. If everyone still had a nice fat pension we never would have seen this change in the first place.

 

[CitationLover]

Certainly some will retire at 60 as long as the unions bargain to keep 60 as the "normal" retirement age but many will stay so it will be difficult to predict the effects on seniority progression. Especially if 65 becomes the new "normal" retirement age in airline contracts. Then most will not be able to afford the penalties involved with retireing early. Especially the loss of "bridge" medical benefits.

it all depends on how its worded in your contract. is normal retirement worded as age 60 or is it worded as the retirement age as defined in FAR.....? if it is the first case, I say the union doesn't have to negotiate anything, it states age 60 for unreduced normal retirement.

 

[dtfl]

it all depends on how its worded in your contract. is normal retirement worded as age 60 or is it worded as the retirement age as defined in FAR.....? if it is the first case, I say the union doesn't have to negotiate anything, it states age 60 for unreduced normal retirement.

We FOs need to prepare for the next battle - Ensuring full retirement is available at 60 vs 65. I bet all our companies are already crunching #s on how much they can save by reducing our contributions and spreading them out over 5 more years....

 

[El Pobre]

I think that you'll see hiring slow down for a few years, but I think that you'll also see a big jump in the over 60 guys retireing before 65 once the contracts on carriers are re-negotiate and the "normal" retirement is 65. Guys who are 61-62 with pensions will probably prefer to reitre on thier own terms under the older contracts, than be forced to retire at 65 under any new contract signed by the company.

Regardless, I wish that we could somehow get rid of ALPO before our next negotiations...I can't wait to see what we'll have to give up in order to make the retirement at 65 better for the "the worst generation".

 

[tico]

We FOs need to prepare for the next battle - Ensuring full retirement is available at 60 vs 65. I bet all our companies are already crunching #s on how much they can save by reducing our contributions and spreading them out over 5 more years....

Start a campaign at your airline for the FO's to put anyone over 60 on their no-fly list....Furlough's(that are sure to come) should go to the over 60 crowd first as well.....There never was a need for the over 60 crowd to stick around for staffing issues as they all made it sound......The FAA should have made it so they would have to be in the right seat if they were going to stay......Pure greed if you ask me.....Lets start a campaign to have the mandatory age be 55.........

 

[LearLove]

I am an AF pilot with about 4 years until I can retire. With "Age 65" now law, I assume that airline hiring at most carriers will drastically slow down for some time. Do you think it will take 5 years for the system to "catch back up" and pilot hiring start again?

Thanks

in 3 or 4 years - pick up phone and call Charleston, Dover, McGuire or where ever you want to live. If it were me I'd take Charleston. Bum until you get a full time job. Your sked and pay will be very campareable to what you would have (if not exceed) as a pilot for a major/national. Put the kids in school, buy a cheap house, get a boat and spend your time off fishing and at the beach with the kids.

 

[tomgoodman]

Intentions vs. actions

I have heard a lot of pilots approaching 60 say "I am going to retire at 60 regardless!!" In reality I would expect a lot of those pilots to go against what they say and continue to fly past 60.

You are probably right. For decades, many pilots have stated that they were going to retire at 57 or 58, and then just couldn't bring themselves to do it, even with a big pension waiting for them. It became "just one more year", or "just one more upgrade". Only a serious threat, such as incipient loss of lump-sums, proved sufficient to cause large numbers of early retirements.

 

[whymeworry?]

I'm hearing, after the January classes, no hiring at CAL now for two years... and we're one of the airlines who are still growing. Just what I've heard.