ABX's Future

[hvydriver]

Again no. It was not a passing comment by Mullen. He says clearly that he will take Hetes word that discussions were tossed back and forth but both sides could not reach an agreement so they went with a UPS option. And I agree 100% the problem is not the air side. And the monumental loss of customers since the announcement keeps pushing DHL down.

Shooter, would you not agree that this proves my position? Hete can talk all he wants. Whatever he talks about is not something that the Germans asked for, were listening to, or were interested in. Hete chose to buck the plan. He (and all of us) is now getting his lunch handed to him. He's bucked them one time too many. Game over. (Remember, I'm not saying the Germans are right by a long shot, but as I have also said in the past whoever writes the check makes the rules. Right or wrong.) Hete never seemed to get that. I wish you guys the best, but for all Joe's bravado, given the state of the company, I don't see any long term survival for ATSG after the hammer falls. Needless to say, we're dead as soon as DHL stops using us. What amazes me is that he's still in charge.

 

[shooter]

I'm......holding......back....... :laugh:

 

[countbat]

Just out of curiosity!. Does ABX/ATSG have any cash on the side for just such a situation?.....If not, and your stock, through some kind of miracle, will not revive soon, I don't see too many chances of survival. That's unfortunate taking in consideration ABX is a good company with an excellent pilot group.
What are the chances to survive using ATi/Cappy umbrella?

 

[flyinboxes]

Just out of curiosity!. Does ABX/ATSG have any cash on the side for just such a situation?.....If not, and your stock, through some kind of miracle, will not revive soon, I don't see too many chances of survival. That's unfortunate taking in consideration ABX is a good company with an excellent pilot group.
What are the chances to survive using ATi/Cappy umbrella?

I would say ATI and Cappy have a good chance of survival if and only if Joe Bankrupts ABXA. If he doesn't, the entire ship will sink. He needs out of debt, he is trapped as he can't buy back stock STILL if I remember correctly. If he could, he could buy it all back and take it private. I believe DHL wants to go ahead and bankrupt ATSG or ABXA out of spite and to help themselves. This would help them (DHL) by eliminating the lift available for competitors and ATI's flying for the competition DB SCHENKER. This would really screw SCHENKER.

When Mullins says DHL didn't care who bought who, this is probably true in relative terms, however, DHL bought Astar in order to give them the leverage to buy ABXA not the other way around. 7.75 Joe, thanks buddy.

 

[abxaviator]

I'm certainly NOT a BK lawyer and i didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night, but it is my understanding that ABX cannot enter BK proceedings independent of ATSG. ABX could be shut down, but that would do nothing to reduce the debt load of ATSG.

 

[TWA]

ATA was owned by the same holding company that owns World and North American, to the best of my knowledge neither of those went Tango Uniform.

 

[abxaviator]

Like my disclaimer said, I am no expert and may very well be wrong, only thing I do know is I won't be around to find out!

 

[nitefr8dog]

ATA was owned by the same holding company that owns World and North American, to the best of my knowledge neither of those went Tango Uniform.

The 300m dept belongs to ATSG, all three carriers now share it. ABX was not the part that lost money last quarter.

 

[flyinboxes]

The 300m dept belongs to ATSG, all three carriers now share it. ABX was not the part that lost money last quarter.

My point was (and I am no BK lawyer either is that somehow the "World, N.American, ATA" conglomerate managed to Bankrupt ATA alone and their structure is almost identical to the now ATSG it seems. When ATA went BK and liquidated I couldn't understand how it was legal but I guess it was because they are toast and the other 2 survived for now. I guess that is why they are called "holding companies". They hold separate companies but somehow mix and mash money together but can get rid of one at any time. I believe Joe can BK ABXA to rid himself of the DHL note, then liquidate to pay down the other 200 million plus.

 

[shooter]

My point was (and I am no BK lawyer either is that somehow the "World, N.American, ATA" conglomerate managed to Bankrupt ATA alone and their structure is almost identical to the now ATSG it seems. When ATA went BK and liquidated I couldn't understand how it was legal but I guess it was because they are toast and the other 2 survived for now. I guess that is why they are called "holding companies". They hold separate companies but somehow mix and mash money together but can get rid of one at any time. I believe Joe can BK ABXA to rid himself of the DHL note, then liquidate to pay down the other 200 million plus.

What would he liquidate? The 767's are the future for any of the 3 ATSG companies. They are the backbone to ATSG being competitive in an ACMI market with or without ABX flying them. I guess you could include the ATI combi's as attractive to military business, but they are few in number compared to the 767's.

 

[727Niteflyer]

I dont think the 76 can replace what the 8 can do. Certainly not what the combis do. And I have a hard time believing the future of one of the 76s lies flying TOL-BNA-CLT with 30,000 lbs of freight which is what one of our 72s do. Bax has no interest in replacing any of the aircraft in tol with 76s or 75s.

Future of the 76s are gonna lie competing with companies like arrow, and centurion out of miami. I highly doubt that abx with the 76s can compete.

Under a holding company they can operate all 3 companies independently and they can bankrupt one without affecting the others (one of the advantages).

 

[shooter]

I dont think the 76 can replace what the 8 can do. Certainly not what the combis do. And I have a hard time believing the future of one of the 76s lies flying TOL-BNA-CLT with 30,000 lbs of freight which is what one of our 72s do. Bax has no interest in replacing any of the aircraft in tol with 76s or 75s.

Future of the 76s are gonna lie competing with companies like arrow, and centurion out of miami. I highly doubt that abx with the 76s can compete.

Under a holding company they can operate all 3 companies independently and they can bankrupt one without affecting the others (one of the advantages).

Do you work for Cappy? If so, do you guys have a MIA domicile for the DHL 757 flights? I know ATI started one up and on the 14th their 767 goes down to start flying the AMX flight on the 15th. The MIA gig is not to popular with the ATI from what I can gather (from posts here on FI) and wondered if the 757 caused the creation of a MIA domicile for Cappy or not.

Thanks!

 

[flyinboxes]

What would he liquidate? The 767's are the future for any of the 3 ATSG companies. They are the backbone to ATSG being competitive in an ACMI market with or without ABX flying them. I guess you could include the ATI combi's as attractive to military business, but they are few in number compared to the 767's.

He would liquidate the current fleet he has or will have (nothing but 76's). He MUST cut doors in the C-CAN 76's as DHL terminates them. Without doors they are worthless. In order to do this, he needs money. Sell all the 76's with doors you have now, or most of them. Transfer the rest to CAM. Take that money and pay for the rest to get doors cut in. Then you have about 20 76's with doors. There IS NO ACMI market for 40 plus 76's with doors. This could be done under Chapter 7 or just a shutdown. A BK will get him out of all labor agreements so one would expect this is the road they will take. It won't happen next week, but once the DHL business is gone and the cash stops coming in, it will be easy to go Chapter 7.

 

[shooter]

He would liquidate the current fleet he has or will have (nothing but 76's). He MUST cut doors in the C-CAN 76's as DHL terminates them. Without doors they are worthless. In order to do this, he needs money. Sell all the 76's with doors you have now, or most of them. Transfer the rest to CAM. Take that money and pay for the rest to get doors cut in. Then you have about 20 76's with doors. There IS NO ACMI market for 40 plus 76's with doors. This could be done under Chapter 7 or just a shutdown. A BK will get him out of all labor agreements so one would expect this is the road they will take. It won't happen next week, but once the DHL business is gone and the cash stops coming in, it will be easy to go Chapter 7.

Who knows what will happen. There are more things going on than any of us know. As far as a liquidation, I don't see it happening. The Pratt 767's will be put back to DHL when they remove them from the DHL system. The rest will be converted and be put to CAM. Once in CAM they can be dry leased to anyone that wants them or the ATSG companies can operate them. They can be at ATI or ABX in the blink of an eye, both have customers. Get some differences training and Cappy can get them as well. They are the future of ATSG whether one of their airlines are flying them or they are dry leased out. All good airframes will be converted and kept, the ones not worth the money will be put to DHL. There is no need for anything you keep talking about. My only hope is that the ABX pilot group and ABX management can get future plans for the company working to keep ABX alive.

 

[Box-Hauler]

Like shooter said. All but the Pratt 767 will be converted. Not sure on the exact $ figures but basically a 767 with a door is worth more than the parts (cost of 767 + door mod). Example would be you buy a 767 for 8 million spend 10 million on a door, total package is 18 million. The plane is now worth 30 million, instant equity of 12 million. My numbers are not exact put the concept is true. If Joe cannot find a bank to lend him money for the conversion he just is not looking.

 

[FastHap]

IAI unit wins $100m cargo plane deal

Bedek Aviation will convert Boeing 767s from passenger to cargo configuration.

Yael Gross-Englander
24 Sep 08 16:39

Israel Aerospace Industries Ltd. unit Bedek Aviation Group has won a follow-on contract from Air Transport Services Group Inc. unit Cargo Aircraft Management Inc. to convert 14 Boeing 767-200 passenger jets to cargo planes for more than $100 million.

IAI is already working on the prototype plane and should receive STC certification in June 2009. The second aircraft (first series aircraft) is scheduled for induction in March 2009. All the work will be performed in Israel on two parallel production lines.


Cargo Aircraft Management COO William Tarpley said, "The fact that IAI has been a preferred service provider to our ABX Air affiliate for more than a decade speaks volumes about IAI's workmanship and customer service."

IAI president and CEO Yitzhak Nissan said, "IAI's plane conversion line continues to grow as a core business of the Aircraft Division."

Sources inform ''Globes'' that Bedek Aviation is visiting China to market its services in an effort to greatly boost IAI's civilian business in China and in Asia in general.

http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/docview.asp?did=1000385249&fid=1725

 

[FastHap]

ABX expects to live on

Leader empathizes with Ohio workers losing jobs when agreement ends

By James Hannah

ASSOCIATED PRESS

WILMINGTON, Ohio -- Cargo carrier ABX Air and 7,500 of its workers are waiting to hear their fate.

DHL plans to hire United Parcel Service to replace ABX Air and ASTAR Air Cargo in transporting DHL packages. The proposal would mean that much of the work normally handled at Wilmington Air Park would be transferred to a UPS facility in Louisville, Ky.

ABX will survive if the switch happens; the victims will be thousands of workers whose jobs will evaporate and safety net of benefits disappear, ABX President John Graber said.

"What we all struggle with is that we understand we can put a model together for ABX Air to continue forward successfully for a long, long time absent DHL," Graber said. "It's just not the best solution for the community."

UPS spokesman Norman Black said Wednesday that UPS expects a deal with DHL to be completed and the transition of volume to begin this year.

ABX employs about 10,000 worldwide. It also has contracts to supply aircraft, crews and maintenance to All Nippon Airways in Japan and to companies out of Miami.

"Those businesses are successful, but they are much smaller, and they are much more susceptible to the vagaries of the marketplace than the steadfastness of the DHL product ever would be," Graber said. "We're going to go from flying over 100 airplanes to flying less than 30."

Graber, who is 51, said that even if the DHL-UPS deal goes through, he hopes ABX will be able to keep about 1,000 workers at the Wilmington Air Park by running DHL's sorting operation there and performing maintenance on 40 planes from other airlines owned by ABX's parent company, Air Transport Services Group.

Graber said that not only will 7,500 ABX jobs in Wilmington be lost if the DHL-UPS deal goes through, but he also doubts that UPS will hire 7,500 workers in Louisville to handle the increased freight.

UPS plans to create jobs as a result of the deal, but it doesn't know how many, Black said. Of its 358,000 U.S. employees, UPS has 20,500 in the Louisville area and 14,500 in Ohio.

"With the U.S. economy as slow and stagnant as it is right now, if you can't find new ways to grow your business, you're potentially jeopardizing the jobs of those 358,000 employees," Black said.

Last week, Air Transport said it was in danger of being delisted from the NASDAQ stock market after its shares closed below the minimum of $1 per share for 30 consecutive trading days

"I think our stock clearly feels the pressure of the DHL situation," Graber said. "Ninety-two percent of our revenue is from DHL, and the market looks at the DHL situation and wonders what we're going to do."
Charles Jack, an analyst with Wall Street Access who follows the industry, said Air Transport could have a viable business without DHL.

"Ultimately, however, the success or failure of the company will be dependent on management's ability to navigate the current difficult environment and restore investor confidence in its future plan for the business," Jack said. "At this point, I think the jury is still out."

Graber understands what's at stake.

"Thousands and thousands of people who rely on ABX Air for a paycheck and a social net to take care of them when they need something to take care of them will not have it," Graber said. "It's going to be really, really stressful for the community, for southwest Ohio, for Clinton County and the counties around us."

http://www.dispatch.com/live/conten...0-03-08_C8_TSBGA93.html?type=rss&cat=&sid=101

 

[bukakke]

Graber and management unfortunately havent done anything regarding increasing ABX's book of business. What we have seen is a lot of talk but no plans. Well boys and girls...........the plan has changed. More to come.

 

[MountyFlyer]

Buk...,
What exactly are you saying?

 

[727Niteflyer]

Do you work for Cappy? If so, do you guys have a MIA domicile for the DHL 757 flights? I know ATI started one up and on the 14th their 767 goes down to start flying the AMX flight on the 15th. The MIA gig is not to popular with the ATI from what I can gather (from posts here on FI) and wondered if the 757 caused the creation of a MIA domicile for Cappy or not.

Thanks!

Cappy has a contract with DHL in MIA for 2 75's. Its buisness as normal for us since we were operating 72's there already all they did was replace it. No Domicile we are all still home based.

ATI made miami a domicile, not sure how they circumnavigated the contract to do that. The Union was encouraging members not to bid. But sure enough 4 junior FO's bid it and now they are going to be 76 capts based in MIA.

For what its worth sounds like DHL is very happy with the 75 I dont think 76s are coming to Cappy at all. CAM has the contract for 6 75s total. 2 go to Cappy and 4 get operated in DHL colors using central america pilots (replacing their 72s).

As far as wilmington. We took one of our 72s there for Maint a few months ago. Ive heard that as soon as our contract is up in JAX we will start taking 72s there for c checks. Keeps the money all in the same company, and utilizes company resources. Im sure the Maint is going to have to justify its existence which means generating its own revenue through contracts to other carriers.