ABX update

[xspud]

I guess that depends on your perspective (seniority). From my POV it's more wait and see vs doom and gloom.

I concur with that. I'm not impressed with DHL so far, so not everything I've written is positive. But I hope that I'm far from "doom & gloom" and I don't sense that attitude at ABX. Even for those of us who haven't had the opportunities and QOL that we hoped for, it's still a great job. The only guys who've had a truly bad deal are the ones on furlough.

There will have to be some movement after the first of the year due to 767's coming on line. That will actually generate some news. For now, only conjecture.

 

[goastar]

>The outcome of those negotiations (costs, work stoppage/disruption, etc) will IMHO have a major impact. <

This may have an impact in the short term, which I really have no doubt that ABX will be the surviver. You have the ground and air tied up. What concerns me is the long term. A few changes in ownership rules and it won't be long that ABX will be competing with the likes of a DHL Aero Express. That may be said for most airlines, but even more so for ACMI carriers. The next 5 or so years could be interesting. The boys at aero express are already talking about going to 75 school down in Mijami.

I hardly think DHL is a wait and see for anything. I believe its a time to gear up the resume and find something else while you have an income kind of job. I used to laugh of your talk of the Airborne golden days, but you boys were right DHL came in and hosed up a good thing. Good luck, as for me the resumes are flowin.

 

[penguin22]

Any positive news at Abx? Or is it still doom and gloom?

Are you furloughed?
If so, here's my perspective, FWIW, with emphasis on the short term outlook, since that what would affect you directly.

I wouldn’t call it doom and gloom either, but as erichartman says I’m sure its different if you’re still furloughed, or on the bottom. But there’s no way I see any more pilot furloughs coming. We’ll be recall/hiring eventually, not furloughing. The question is when.

Here’s key points to watch for, IMO
How quickly will the remaining DC8s get parked? There’s still 16 active captains and 22 FOs that will eventually get moved to 767 or DC9. Worst case, of course, would be if they all get parked real soon. But I’ve even heard rumors that DHL is considering putting a couple DC8s thru C check (that decision supposedly sometime next month), which means of course they’ll hang around for quite some time.

Where do the additional 767s get put into service? (5-6 more, I think) If its in the DHL network, they can be crewed with maybe half the staffing required for putting them on some of these charters. We’re short 767 crews now. If they go to charters we’ll be REALLY short of 767 crews. If this Japan operation thats rumored happens we’ll be REALLY REALLY short of 767 crews. Meanwhile, 767 training continues.

I’ve read lots of concern about getting rid of the DC9s, but that’s not gonna happen anytime soon. DHL will have to have a replacement first, and there’s no sign of one coming right now, whether its ABX or anybody else. Put that in the long term concern column. Short term, they’re safe.

Put it all together, and here’s the worst/best case scenarios…
Worst case: Remaining DC8s get parked right after Christmas rush. Additional 767s go to DHL.
Those 36 DC8 pilots will have to go to 767/DC9. Recall and hiring gets pushed off until that’s done. Call me crazy, but I still don’t see pilot furloughing with that (unlikely) scenario.

Best case: DC8s just keep hanging around, maybe DHL pays to C-check one or two. (the most likely DC8 scenario IMO) This Japan 767 operation gets fast-tracked. In that case, I’m gonna bet we see recall/hiring in the first quarter 2007, certainly in the first half of next year.

BTW, anybody else notice mgmt seemed to have changed their tune? We’re no longer hearing ‘we’re adequately staffed’. Now they’re admitting they were ‘caught short’ of pilots. FWIW

 

[abxaviator]

4 DC-8 Captains and 4 DC-9 FO's to start 767 class next month.

 

[penguin22]

4 DC-8 Captains and 4 DC-9 FO's to start 767 class next month.

Yes and my numbers above ("There’s still 16 active captains and 22 FOs that will eventually get moved to 767 or DC9") didn't include that bid.

Thanks for clarifying

 

[xspud]

A few changes in ownership rules and it won't be long that ABX will be competing with the likes of a DHL Aero Express.

Anything is possible, of course, but I'm not sure I agree that would be the outcome. My impression is that DHL's modus operandi has been to buy the carrier that's in place instead of growing another carrier. Growing DHL Aero Express from a (I think) 4 airplane operation to something the size of Astar or ABX is not the way DHL has done business in the past. Being owned by DHL doesn't seem to have provided many growth opportunities for the carriers they've bought so far.

There's not much sympathy for foreign ownership in the U.S. right now, either. Europe may force something to happen by holding out open skies, but there's a lot of sentiment against it for the time being. I see status quo in ownership rules for a while.

 

[GoABX]

Rumor 1: Proffer for 6 DC-9 captains in Jan

Rumor 2: Recall and perhaps draining pool in Jan

My vote is for another 6 month mega proffer to give us and the company some visibility. Only downside is mgt. may be trying to increase morale as they enter talks on pay and retirement in hopes of getting off cheaper.

 

[penguin22]

Only downside is mgt. may be trying to increase morale as they enter talks on pay and retirement in hopes of getting off cheaper.

they must be dreaming :laugh:





like my new sig?

 

[penguin22]

like my new sig?

hmmm. 'No concessionary contracts' kinda sounds like a contract without a payraise would suffice.

Of course we need a payraise!!

I'll have to tweak that signature somehow.

 

[GoABX]

With upgrade expectations going from 5 to 15 years, we need to realign FO rates back to the percentages.

We need a B-Fund, even a small one to start, just so we can work on it in future contracts. Does it matter whether you get a 5%/yr pay raise or a B fund that increases 5%/yr? Can you imagine having a 25% B fund after 5 years?!!!!

UPS/FDX minus 15% will work for me and still give DHL a cost advantage.