ABX says NO THANK YOU to ASTAR

[erwaz]

I was disapointed to here that ABX did not sell to Astar. I wonder what the fate of ABX will be. It seems to me that DHL does not want ABX in the future.

 

[GoABX]

Even if there is a lot a behind closed doors discussion between Astar, ABX and DHL, there is no way that Astar and ABX could be described as friends. For the simple fact they have gained and we have lost over the past 4 years. So it is highly unlikely that Dasburg has much inside intel on the unannounced 76 purchases or the scope of the ANA and other charter business that is coming. The same could also be said for DHL. They know more 76s are coming and they know 1.75% ain't gonna get it. So of course they'd like to buy at a discount if they can't rent at a discount.

The ANA-ABX plan is much bigger than 3 a/c. The question is if DHL is tied to the deal or if they take it as a threat. otherwise we may have a horse race to see if ABX can grow quick enough to not need DHL or if DHL can buy lift quick enough to dump ABX. All of this and many opinions on this board presume current and future animosity between ABX and DHL. Based on past history there is no reason to assume things have to get ugly. But there is definitely a chance. The picture will be much more clear to every one by Q1 or earlier.

 

[J3CubDriver]

Guys I see way too much emotion in this. Think business. Does anyone take the first informal offer? This is far from over. This is just normal big business negotiations. Astar ABX DHL all need each other. There can't be anymore disruptions in service in the US. Anybody remember the intergration to ILN. ABX has 44 767's and 55 DC-9s with rumored 12 more from China S Airways and a few more from AA. It's pretty hard to replace that kind of lift. It take years and years to replace that, plus aircraft and conversion slots. ABX has all the 767-200 slots for the next several years. Both pilot groups are much better off together than apart. Strength in numbers. Patients and unity is what we need.

 

[Cargoav8or]

"ABX has all the 767-200 slots for the next several years."

Hey J3 is this in a filing somewhere or just heresy? Are they the Boeing mod or IA?

Just curiosity.

Thanks

 

[ABXbooger]

this is for the IAI Mod which, I think is the only mod available for the -200. Boeing has done some -300 mods for ANA, other than that all the -300 are factory new mods.

Hete has said numerous times that we have locked up every available slot for -200 mods for the next several years. I think he means IAI.

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

Guys I see way too much emotion in this. Think business. Does anyone take the first informal offer? This is far from over. This is just normal big business negotiations.

It's kind of axiomatic in business that when a deal is made based upon the initial offer, either one side has offered too much, or the other side has accepted too little.

I used to think that DHL would never allow ABX and Astar to join together. But seeing how ABX has cornered the market on 767's for the next few years, and how interested other parties are in those assets, I'm not so sure anymore.

What would prevent DHL from making a bid for ABX outright?

 

[abxdx]

It's kind of axiomatic in business that when a deal is made based upon the initial offer, either one side has offered too much, or the other side has accepted too little.

I used to think that DHL would never allow ABX and Astar to join together. But seeing how ABX has cornered the market on 767's for the next few years, and how interested other parties are in those assets, I'm not so sure anymore.

What would prevent DHL from making a bid for ABX outright?

the law!!!

 

[ABXbooger]

here's a scarier thought, maybe...

Why doesn't UPS or Fedex make a bid for ABX. Instantly ruins DHL's plans for having a profitable US biz for years to come. Feds would probably allow it, because DHL can't cry foul as they are not a US company and couldn't afford another ownership fight.

The buy by FDX or UPS would be an instant gain in market share as DHL could no longer offer any sort of overnight delivery. Yeah, I know DHL has a contract with ABX, but for only 2 years. They absolutely couldn't replace ABX anywhere near 2 years. Well maybe they could, but that would involve every ACMI carrier from here to Taiwan, and I'm sure that would be very profitable...

This thought alone should speak volumes as to why DHL needs some sort of deal to happen.

 

[ABXbooger]

how about a shell co. set up jointly by FDX and UPS to buy up ABX and then shut it down...

 

[Cargoav8or]

how about a shell co. set up jointly by FDX and UPS to buy up ABX and then shut it down...

Ah, an optimist!! Don't even joke around like that.:beer:

 

[Cargoav8or]

" They absolutely couldn't replace ABX anywhere near 2 years. Well maybe they could, but that would involve every ACMI carrier from here to Taiwan, and I'm sure that would be very profitable..."

Yea, DHL would never do anything dumb like that. Like buy a completely incompatible company or buy back into an airline that has 44 a/c on there last leg, Oh wait....

Your screwed!!

 

[AV8OR]

" They absolutely couldn't replace ABX anywhere near 2 years. Well maybe they could, but that would involve every ACMI carrier from here to Taiwan, and I'm sure that would be very profitable..."

Yea, DHL would never do anything dumb like that. Like buy a completely incompatible company or buy back into an airline that has 44 a/c on there last leg, Oh wait....

Your screwed!!

Or build a $300 Mill brand new facility and then walk away from it in favor of one 20 years old. Yep DHL ALWAYS make the reasonable decision.

 

[shooter]

Or build a $300 Mill brand new facility and then walk away from it in favor of one 20 years old. Yep DHL ALWAYS make the reasonable decision.

:laugh: too true. They burn through money like they were printing it.

After just 4 years of DHL exposure, I don't see how you guys put up with their "master minds".

 

[nitefr8dog]

" They absolutely couldn't replace ABX anywhere near 2 years. Well maybe they could, but that would involve every ACMI carrier from here to Taiwan, and I'm sure that would be very profitable..."

Yea, DHL would never do anything dumb like that. Like buy a completely incompatible company or buy back into an airline that has 44 a/c on there last leg, Oh wait....

Your screwed!!

yea or put all your eggs in 1 basket (Astar) they are one of Abx's biggest customers 113 recoveries thru Nov 06 (compared to 4 for Abx by Astar) please do not shoot the messenger these numbers came from MX!

 

[learjockey1]

yea or put all your eggs in 1 basket (Astar) they are one of Abx's biggest customers 113 recoveries thru Nov 06 (compared to 4 for Abx by Astar) please do not shoot the messenger these numbers came from MX!

Wow! So how on God's green earth did DHL Airways operate for 20+ years without you guys? And with a 98%+ on time performance no less? Get a clue!

 

[nitefr8dog]

Wow! So how on God's green earth did DHL Airways operate for 20+ years without you guys? And with a 98%+ on time performance no less? Get a clue!

why dont you get a clue! If Abx does the recovery Astar still gets an on time performance. Plus Astar was not an express overnite company for the first 20 years! Do not be so thin skinned (I said do not shoot the messenger) I asked this question during a meeting with our MX during grd school he does a 9am conference call every morning with DP,ABX,ASTAR to talk about any extra flights recoveries etc.The numbers are fact! Again these are not my numbers just the numbers!

 

[FreightBumper]

Wow! So how on God's green earth did DHL Airways operate for 20+ years without you guys? And with a 98%+ on time performance no less? Get a clue!

Because you get credit if the flight is no longer than scheduled, even if it is two hours late leaving the sort. Out of the mouths of your own folks.

 

[Airbus300]

Because you get credit if the flight is no longer than scheduled, even if it is two hours late leaving the sort. Out of the mouths of your own folks.

If it is two hours late leaving the sort because of loading delays, I believe you are correct. We don't get hit with the delay.

 

[ABXbooger]

20 years previous and your company could only grow to 40 planes....thats the problem!

 

[Cargoav8or]

20 years previous and your company could only grow to 40 planes....thats the problem!

113 recoveries, beautiful.

As far as 40 airplanes, that just the US. There are companies and planes all over the world not to mention the belly space that was used all around the US. Thats just how DHL did it, I don't like it but thats the way it is.

How did you guys not manage to make it out of the US for 30 years? Why did you upgrade your fleet with 767s and not join the rest of the world in container systems. Your own guys told me how they flipped when that happened.

There are problems with both companies. Too bad we are all in the middle.
:beer:

 

[HeavyjetDC8]

shooter quote post # 26: well, how did you figure a merger would fix the ANA problems if they can't be fixed now? Did you think the ANA flying would go away? Did you figure the ASTAR guys would bid it? Just asking, not flaming.

A fair question, no flames sighted: extinguisher not reached for.

I have assumed that DHL through an Astar /ABX merger would have DHL concentrating upon flying their freight to reach their customer by 10.30 am ( core business) as the top priority without being sidetracked into a hybrid ACMI/ flight crew leasing abortion in secondary Asian markets.

It would seem that Joe has his head fully inserted where the sun doesn't shine and believes himself to have both a game plan and a future. I'm afraid that on both counts he is wrong.

So shooter; without a merger, what's your vision of the future? I do agree that the DHL Nazis have once again criminally goosed stepped and screwed it up - but do you honestly see salvation with ABX operating as a flight crew leasing/ ACMI hybrid with the flight crew in revolt to the point where they'll kill the company before accepting a domicile in the land of the rising sun?

Sometimes an undesirable option is the only option. At least it's a workable option.

 

[HeavyjetDC8]

ABXbooger: we were offered 20 DC10s in the mid 90s but didn't take them for $100m because it wasn't understood as to how we could efficiently load / unload using C containers. The answer of course was to fit a cargo door and dump the C container; and it's the C container mentality which has killed ABX as a stand alone freight company.

 

[ABXbooger]

Hey Cargo, funny thing is we did the same thing DHL did here, we used belly freight etc.

It is just fact, look at pre-buyout numbers for ABF. We were carrying anywhere from 15-18% of the freight in the US ( based on whose numbers you believe). DHL has come in and gone very seriously backwards, so please don't ask how we ever did it, truth and fact is Airborne Express did it better than DHL has up to this point. And I know DHL is huge in the rest of the world, but let's face it, if you can't make it work here in the US, your hat will be handed to you. Look at where all of FDX and UPS's growth has come from in the last 5 years...international...that's DHL's bread and butter, right. Well I can tell you that DHL is going to start losing their "I'm so big overseas..." attitude really quick, DHL isn't going to be what it once was if they don't turn things around.

 

[ABXbooger]

I have heard that about the DC-10's. Frankly I am glad that didn't happen. We would be in a worse position than 767's without doors.

 

[HeavyjetDC8]

How right you are ABXbooger: such wisdom. FedEx would agree ref the DC10 - Not. Best get your resume up to date because truth be old, Joe and his all singing, all dancing, mighty 767 (flat panel junk) isn't going to save the bottom 50% ( conservative estimate) from furlough unless Joe gets bulldozed out of the way and a merger takes place. If ABX had dropped the C container in the 90s you'd have a future here. But ABX didn't, which is why you don't.

 

[Golden Falcon]

Found this name on my jumpseat protection list.http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?

 

[penguin22]

Found this name on my jumpseat protection list.http://home.businesswire.com/portal/site/google/index.jsp?

Thanks!

 

[erichartmann]

How right you are ABXbooger: such wisdom. FedEx would agree ref the DC10 - Not. Best get your resume up to date because truth be old, Joe and his all singing, all dancing, mighty 767 (flat panel junk) isn't going to save the bottom 50% ( conservative estimate) from furlough unless Joe gets bulldozed out of the way and a merger takes place. If ABX had dropped the C container in the 90s you'd have a future here. But ABX didn't, which is why you don't.

Let's remember that Airborne and DHL talked 4 or 5 times before a deal was finally reached. The fact that Joe and the ABX BOD rejected an informal offer from Daz means nothing. It also means nothing that Daz has said he is withdrawing the offer and will now persue other avenues. It's just business. If DHL/DP really wants Daz to buy ABX there will be some manuvering and another approach. Perhaps Daz will now buy some of ABX's stock on the open market. After all, with the whole market dropping ABX's per share price is now less than Daz's offer. Maybe Daz will sweeten the offer. Perhaps DHL will tell Joe they plan to radically reduce the number of aircraft on the ACMI fairly quickly, seeking to futher force the share price down. Maybe all of those things. Maybe nothing.

This business (flying airplanes for anybody) is anything but stable. For years the cliche was you had to have been furloughed at least once before you could consider yourself a "real" airline pilot. After deregulation in 1978 that changed to you had to ride one into bankruptcy at least once.

Freight is now a mature industry, at least in the US. This means we are now subject to the swings of the economy. This is even more true of the ACMI freight carriers, as they tend to have relatively few customers.

As an ACMI carrier ABX may be in trouble. Maybe not. Joe and ABX BOD appear to have a plan to replace most or all of the "C" container aircraft over the next few years. Joe will not be terribly upset if this results in some furloughs among the crews if the company survives. Again, just business. It depends on how the ANA deal works out and what other moves Joe has up his sleeve. He has publically claimed there is more business out there than we have aircraft to service.

DHL buying back into Astar may be good for the Astar folks. Maybe not. Depends on how DHL/DP does. I think we can say with some certainty that DHL/DP face a serious challange from Fedex and UPS. So far they have not inspired me with their moves.

One thing we can be certain of is there will be changes for all of us. I very much doubt all the cards have been played or are even on the table.

 

[hvydriver]

:laugh: too true. They burn through money like they were printing it.

After just 4 years of DHL exposure, I don't see how you guys put up with their "master minds".

Well Shooter, I personally find that drinking helps a lot......

 

[Golden Falcon]

Sorry..the link was no good....was in reference to a recent promotion in the DHL flt ops hierarchy...and the fellow's name turned up on the list...EAL'89...must have been a "crawl-back"....enjoy