AA New Hires in Dec

[The Drizzle]

Judging how well airways has done in past mergers there's a chance active us air captains could get plunked behind American new hires.

While a but hyperbolic, you are presenting the nut of it. In the last few arbitrated lists, the extreme position has been punished while the moderate positions are rewarded. USAPA's DOH restriction in their constitution and bylaws is an extreme position and I have no faith that they will see reason at the table should this merger go through. I'd expect a pretty large smack down if it's all DOH chest thumping.

 

[RJLoser]

What part?

All new hires after merger announcement DOH.

 

[Iflyamouse]

What is a realistic timeframe to Captain if hired in this current wave? I know there are lots of variables here but any educated guesses? Wondering if I should jump ship.

That's a really tough question considering the merger. Too many unknowns to speculate on the impact that will have.

I will say that as it sits right now, I think a new-hire will move up to 50% on the AA seniority list in 10/11 years. Growth, and the number of people who accept recall (there's probably close to 1000 who bypassed) will have an impact on that.

 

[StaySeated]

I will say that as it sits right now, I think a new-hire will move up to 50% on the AA seniority list in 10/11 years. Growth, and the number of people who accept recall (there's probably close to 1000 who bypassed) will have an impact on that.

I looked at the lists of mandatory retirements available online (accuracy unknown) and AA shows approximately 3700 mandatory retirements in the next 10 years. You will need quite a bit of growth and a lot of bypassers to move up the list 50%.

 

[ALGFLYR]

.... You will need quite a bit of growth and a lot of bypassers to move up the list 50%.

No bypassers. When your number comes up for upgrade, you have to take it. I think there are ways to pass on a short term basis, but you basically can count on the top 50% of the list being Captains and the bottom 50% First Officers... Well maybe not 50/50 because of all the international flying requiring extra F/O's, but whatever the Capt/FO ratio is, it's probably a pretty clear line...

 

[Wingman10]

ALGFLYR states:
No bypassers. When your number comes up for upgrade, you have to take it.
That is not a true statement. There are plenty of people that bypass when their number comes up and purposely remain FO's. Very senior FO's I might add.

Bidding quality of life comes to mind as to reasons why?

 

[ERfly]

No bypassers. When your number comes up for upgrade, you have to take it. I think there are ways to pass on a short term basis, but you basically can count on the top 50% of the list being Captains and the bottom 50% First Officers... Well maybe not 50/50 because of all the international flying requiring extra F/O's, but whatever the Capt/FO ratio is, it's probably a pretty clear line...

Pretty sure AA got rid of the "Up or Out" policy.


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[ALGFLYR]

Current APA contract, effective Jan 1st, 2013 (Greenbook):

Section 17.O Requirement to qualify in turn. Para. 1 states: "All pilots are required to qualify in turn for the next higher pilot category at their base."

It seems the "Up or Out" policy is in the current contract...

 

[Iflyamouse]

I looked at the lists of mandatory retirements available online (accuracy unknown) and AA shows approximately 3700 mandatory retirements in the next 10 years. You will need quite a bit of growth and a lot of bypassers to move up the list 50%.

I'll admit ... I'm optimistic.

People getting hired now are in the 9400 seniority range, 3700 retires in 10 years puts them at 5700-ish. In year 11 there are 700 retirements moving you up to ~5000. Years 12 and 13 also have 700 retirements each FWIW.

AA publicly said they're hiring 1500 pilots in the next 5 years. Only 800 will retire in that time frame so that's ~700 growth putting the list over 10K.

Assuming no more growth past 5 years that means someone hired today would
be at 5700 of 10300 or 55%. Year 11 = 5000 of 10300 or 48.5%.

When I mentioned bypass, I'm not talking about Captains bypassing upgrade. I'm talking about 1175 deferees who bypassed recall. They may or may not come back.

One thing's for sure is that the merger is looking more and more likely every day so all of this will get thrown out the window.

 

[densoo]

Ends tomorrow!

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