A Letter to Pres. Bush

[JonJohn82]

Several posts ago a person posted Kwikset (sp?) door knob company is closing shop and moving out of the country.

That's correct. The plant is packing up and moving its operations to Mexico.

I also saw on the news where the government is proposing to count jobs such as making burgers and such at McDonalds, Burger King, etc.. as "manufacturing jobs." Therefore, the number of manufacturing jobs will soar at the stroke of a pen. That sounds pretty curious seeing as an election is coming up. Maybe I or someone else can find the article online.

 

[Timebuilder]

I don't have numbers, but just looking at the back of a package and it is all too common to see "Made In China".

You'll see more of that, too. This trend will bring representative government to China, doing what warfare with the Chinese could never have accomplished. Their workers will enjoy a rising standard of living, and eventually, sooner than we expect, their labor will not be purchased as cheaply as it is now. As their standard of living rises, the Chinese will become consumers of American goods, a vast fresh market for us to sell our best and brightest ideas. It will be because we have continued to trade with them, instead of closing ourselves off.

We are fortunate, because we can more easily adjust to a changing labor market than many countries. We lack the heavy socialist bureaucracy that would impede others in making changes. Most pilots are intelligent people, on the whole, and can be innovative and clever when the need arises. I think this is what will happen with the loss of certain jobs to overseas labor; just as the IT industry will change and adapt, so will others. It won't mean that we will no longer make things, we will simply see a shift in what is made, and by whom.

Of course, if enough people find an erzatz "Cindy Newman" offensive, then those companies that have outsourced to her will see a decline in US business. If enough people find themselves chagrined to be speaking to a Dell Computer customer service rep in South America, then fewer Dell computers may be sold in the US.

Remember, WE are a part of the market. The choices we make affect what choices are made by companies.

The choice is yours.

 

[Snakum]

Bart, are you sure you live in the same country as the rest of us? I thought I was ill-informed because I rarely watch TV ... but you're living in a cave somewhere my man. Unbelievable ... I can throw a rock from my office and hit one of at least 50 office buildings in my park that are now empty, where hundreds used to work. And my business park looks just like a thousand others here in my little corner of the state. And driving home I'll pass 20 - 30 closed up factories ... this just on MY route. And the news, the papers, and the radio have new employment 'hard luck' stories and local plant closings every day.

But you maintain there's no problem. You ain't too bright is you? Does your conservatism run so deep as to make you disbelieve what every news organization in the frigging country is wagging about, and has been for a few years now, and what those who've witnessed it first-hand tell you?

You're a strange bird, my man.

The Dems and Repubs, both in bed with big business, are equally to blame, too. Clinton and NAFTA ... whatta crock. He told us that new jobs in technology would replaced the lost manufacturing jobs. Well ... all the IT jobs are going to India, China, and Philippines.

Lovely ... just phuk'n lovely ...



Minh

 

[bart]

but you're living in a cave somewhere my man. Unbelievable ... I can throw a rock from my office and hit one of at least 50 office buildings in my park that are now empty, where hundreds used to work.

So did their jobs go overseas?

Sure, the dot com bubble drew alot of people into IT for a career. And alot of those people are out of jobs. That is mostly due to endless amounts of capital being exhausted by comapnies that never turned a profit. Those jobs have evaporated, they are gone. They did not go to China or India.

I am well aware, as I sign a new lease on my office, that there are alot of vacant office buildings. There is precious little that a President of the US can do to change that, short of lowering taxes and setting trade policies that favor countries that enforce labor laws.

So I believe I have a fairly thorough understanding of the situation. I actually saw the implosion coming and minimized its effect on me. I left flying full time knowing that wages and career progression there were going to stagnate for another 2 to 3 years.

There were many knowledgeable people warning of "irrational exuberance" and "unreasonable enthusiasm" in the late 90s, and many chose to ignore them and believe those selling the magic beans. That is a shame, but it was also a choice.

In the end, to jobs going overseas, that just isn't a phenomenon that shows up in the numbers that I see reported. The BLS doesn't show it, and a scan of Lexis/Nexis turns up less than 100K jobs "going overseas". It makes a great story the way the Internet made millionaires - with precious little substance behind it.

So unless the trends are going to accelerate by the 1,400% that consultants expect, there are other fundamental causes of unemployment running at what 10 years ago were "normal" levels.

 

[Timebuilder]

And driving home I'll pass 20 - 30 closed up factories ... this just on MY route. And the news, the papers, and the radio have new employment 'hard luck' stories and local plant closings every day.

When I was in Philadlephia in the 1970's, it was a combination of Dresden (only a handful of years after the race riots drove any sensible manufacturing business out of town) and dry gulch. Those companies had all gone to central Pennsylvania or to the South, and no doubt stopped at GSO along the way down US 81 on the road to Tennessee and Georgia. With the contraction of the economy after the dot com bust, many lost their ability to survive. Many, if not most of the empty offices and factory buildings represent businessses that no longer exist at all, rather than companies that just went somewhere else. Some were taken over by a larger company, and some have moved jobs to another country.

So, not all of what you see is a job in India or China. Within a year or two, some of those offices and buildings will be occupied. But, this will only happen if we keep the tax cuts that free up the capital that opens factories and offices, which employ people.

 

[Snakum]

So, not all of what you see is a job in India or China.

Speaking about the offices, of course not. However, in almost every case of a closed factory locally, the jobs have merely moved further south. In Raleigh, NC in the early 90s, every third person you met was from the northeast or upper mid-west, and had followed the jobs to the southeast as companies sought lower taxes, wages, etc. Then they kept on moving south to Mexico. Now the jobs are beginning to move from Mexico to Asia, according to a piece I heard recently. They interviewed many formerly factory-employed Mexicans in one of the larger cities and he was saying the same things the newly unemployed factory workers in High Point were saying two or three years ago. It was kind of funny actually. Not funny as in Ha Ha ... but definitely strange.

I wonder where the jobs will go after Asia? Eastern Europe? The movie industry already LOVES eastern Europe for lower costs. Perhaps manufacturing is next?

Minh

 

[Timebuilder]

I wonder where the jobs will go after Asia? Eastern Europe? The movie industry already LOVES eastern Europe for lower costs. Perhaps manufacturing is next?

There are problems with running a company in Mexico. The entire country is the home of the bribe, and there isn't an official to be found without dollars in his pocket. In Asia, this isn't the case. In India, it is the case. In India, they are not secretive about their bribes as they are in Mexico, they are almost indignant about your responsibility to pay the bribe. In China, this idea is gaining ground, but it is not usually spoken of openly. It is a "gift" exchanged between business people.

Only some industries lend themselves to this overseas trend, and there will be a time soon when this attraction will wane, as costs begin to rise. As you pointed out, there are only so many places where jobs can go.

 

[Typhoon1244]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: The Greatest Generation

Originally posted by BORN2FLY
I'm a firm believer in personal accountability. I grew up in a pretty rough childhood. One that consisted of a father who was gone when I was a year old and a mother who drank too much and made me feel like an unwelcome guest in her home.

Ah. This explains your philsophy about parenthood:

...in my opinion, parents have an effect on the lives of children who are too weak to make their own paths.

Are you actually suggesting that I should not try to provide my boys with any emotional or moral guidance because it will make them weak? Jesus!

For the record, I'm not "suggesting" anything...I'm stating fact.

Well, here's another fact for you: people who had a crappy childhood usually ruin their own childrens' early years. It's a pattern recognized by psychologists and family counselors. So...good luck.

I had a wonderful childhood. My parents have been happily married (to each other) my entire life, and they taught me to (1) treat others the way I want to be treated, and (2) do the right thing even if nobody's looking. I wish all parents would do the same. I'm certainly trying to!

 

[ThomasR]

Letter to Bush

I doubt Pres. Bush will find time to read from the ranks, but someone in the press corp will [along with many thousands of other letters from those witnessing globalization up close]. I am convinced that if not invested in the market or in a small business, the only jobs available will be low paying, menial labor, temporary. And, competition for these jobs will be from foreign immigration.

Do you place candidates from the U.S. in the Mexican market? I understand the cost of living in some parts of Mexico is 11 to 1 . If that is true someone with meager savings might still be able to reach the American dream in Mexico. I speak a little Spanish. If I hear good things about Mexico I might move there. What do you think?

 

[rettofly]

Re: Bart - Did you read the articles?

The trend represents a potential seismic shift: In the next 15 years, American employers will move about 3.3 million white-collar jobs and $136 billion in wages overseas, according to Forrester Research. That's up from $4 billion in wages in 2000.
Financial services companies alone plan to move more than 500,000 jobs offshore in the next five years, says consulting firm A.T. Kearney. Deloitte Consulting expects 2 million jobs worldwide to eventually move to countries such as India.

Can you say "GLOBALIZATION"? I'm amazed at the gall of the liberal politicians who promote the Global Village while piously bemoaning the export of jobs. It seems to me that this is a two-way street, since many jobs have been imported into the U. S.
I guess it all depends on whose ox is being gored at the moment.

 

[BORN2FLY]

Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: Re: The Greatest Generation

Are you actually suggesting that I should not try to provide my boys with any emotional or moral guidance because it will make them weak? Jesus!

Not at all. I think guidance is WONDERFUL. However, I don't think "guidance" is the sole savior of young people. If someone is strong enough to create the life they want regardless of lacking in guidance, they will. If they're not, then they'll use that misfortune as an excuse to be a screw-up.

Well, here's another fact for you: people who had a crappy childhood usually ruin their own childrens' early years. It's a pattern recognized by psychologists and family counselors. So...good luck.

Thanks...but, I don't need luck. I have insight and experience. I know what I wanted to have and feel growing up. Therefore, I know exactly what to give my children to ensure they don't have to go through what I did. As far as those "statistics" that you're referring to are concerned, they are the "weak" that I'm referring to. The "fact" that I was speaking of is that we as individuals are in charge of our lives...not our childhood. The decisions that we make allow us to reap the rewards or suffer the consequences of our judgement. It sounds like you grew up well and are there for your sons. If that's the case, they're lucky to have you. But, it doesn't mean that they'll be successful. That'll be up to them. Just because you give someone a set of tools doesn't mean they'll know what to do with them.