A Career Question

[English]

I can't even stay up til 10, much less all night.

No thanks.

QOL means more to me than money, frankly. I already have plenty of money.

Maybe I'm getting *old*. But I only stay up late for friends, family, and fun, not work.

 

[skykid]

Both are going to soon be the only ones left with a chance at making the big bucks like in the good ole days, flying widebodies around the world with a secure pension to look forward too when you retire.

I wouldn't count on that in the long term. I agree they are the most stable right now if you can do the schedule, but both FedEx and UPS pilot groups will be under incredible pressure to mirror the wages of passenger airlines. I know they are making great profits. I would say their pensions are more secure. Once the legacies have matched LCCs and gotten rid of their pensions, then FedEx and UPS will have that pressure.

CAL is scary, as are all the legacies, because consolidation is going to take place. You may be on the good end of the deal, maybe not. Long term (say 20 years) I look for very little left of the legacies. LCCs will dominate domestic travel and foreign carriers will do our international flying.

I think Airtran is in for some good times. One way or the other, Delta is going to have to pull their domestic schedule down by double digit percentages in the next year or two. Airtran will benefit greatly.

Hope I'm wrong about all of the above.

 

[Dinger]

GuppyKiller.....It turns out flying wide-bodies all over the world just isn't as much fun as it sounds..........but I gotta say, it still beets working for a living.

I am with English.......give me QOL......or give my wife her recall back to NW in the -9 so I can get QOL through her!

 

[bayoubandit]

I think I'm with English on this one too.

I have applied to all listed and will apply to CAL also, but after getting the boot from one legacy I don't think now is the time I want to make another move. I'm finally regaining some of what I lost.

I figure an app. can't hurt. I can always decide if ever called by one of them.

Maybe one day a recall will come around.

 

[Dinger]

I honestly think that getting hired by any of the Legacy's anytime in the future would be great.

Domiciles are a concern with CAL. It is a good thing the have a little "paradise" in CLE, because I couldn't live in Houston or NY/NJ. (please note the sarcasm).

 

[General Lee]

I wouldn't count on that in the long term. I agree they are the most stable right now if you can do the schedule, but both FedEx and UPS pilot groups will be under incredible pressure to mirror the wages of passenger airlines. I know they are making great profits. I would say their pensions are more secure. Once the legacies have matched LCCs and gotten rid of their pensions, then FedEx and UPS will have that pressure.

CAL is scary, as are all the legacies, because consolidation is going to take place. You may be on the good end of the deal, maybe not. Long term (say 20 years) I look for very little left of the legacies. LCCs will dominate domestic travel and foreign carriers will do our international flying.

I think Airtran is in for some good times. One way or the other, Delta is going to have to pull their domestic schedule down by double digit percentages in the next year or two. Airtran will benefit greatly.

Hope I'm wrong about all of the above.

What? Ok Nostrodamas. Why again will DL pull down their domestic schedule by DOUBLE DIGITS? What? They just added 80 flights a day in ATL alone and are in the process of getting $5 billion A YEAR in savings. They are beginning heavy mx outsourcing (like everyone else), and have made ATL a more efficient hub. We are in the process of trimming our fleet numbers, as in different types of aircraft. When again will the GREAT California earthquake be? You seem to think you know all of the future answers.... You forgot to understand that all of the legacies are getting leaner and getting rid of waste, and when this downturn turns around, will be ready to fight again. Look at USAir, they are still around after everyone thought they would be gone a year ago. Do you have the GA Lotto numbers for Sat night???? LOL.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[bestpilot]

If I have to leave, I suppose my dream line-up would be SWA, UPS, FEDeX, CO, JBLU, AirTran, AWA.

Delta is actually my number one choice (being a Georgia boy) but I don't think they are going to be hiring any time soon. Any encouraging words, General Lee?

Duuude, like your my brother from a Georgia mother, but you got all sorts of love for Delta, but you gots the Tranny #6 on your list. Wazzup wit dat, bro? You gots to explain the logic here, cause you sounds like you been puttin some thought into this.

I'm diggin dat CO brought all the dudes back from the street, but you put em in front of the Blue Dudes and the Tranny? Maybe Ive had too many brewskis, but I'm confused.

 

[bestpilot]

I'll take a job with ANY airline on the list in ANY order!

Duude, it's like really wierd. What if you get hired at the Tranny, or Continental, or the SWA? The "GuppyKiller" flyin' the Guppy. I don't know but dats some bad kharma, my brother from the 70-seat mother.

 

[PastFastMover]

You are right, anything can happen, like getting on with FedEx or UPS and living my dream. Flying a widebody around the world making big bucks. But I'd still take SWA or the others in a heartbeat too.

FedEx and UPS, both great companies. My friends that work there have told me that it takes basically 7 to 10 years to finally come to the realizatioin that you will live your life on the back side of the clock. If you can handle this, go for it. I personally cannot handle this. My current company also has all night freighters that pay more than flying pax (night time, big airplane, etc.). After doing it for 3 months, I could not get away from it fast enough. No FA's to talk with, no passengers to talk with, Just the same 2 or 3 crewmembers all night long. Everyone is different, if it suits you, go for it!!

 

[Clyde]

I wouldn't count on that in the long term. I agree they are the most stable right now if you can do the schedule, but both FedEx and UPS pilot groups will be under incredible pressure to mirror the wages of passenger airlines. I know they are making great profits. I would say their pensions are more secure. Once the legacies have matched LCCs and gotten rid of their pensions, then FedEx and UPS will have that pressure.

LCC's transport people. UPS and FedEx do not transport people. LCC's are passenger airlines in a passenger airline environment. There are too many seats chasing too few people.

UPS and FedEx are in the business of moving goods all around the world. UPS is, in fact, a very large transportation conglomerate with many different parts. Trucking, logistics, warehousing, and supply-chain-management just to name a few. UPS does not have the expense burden felt by the passenger airlines. They are also very profitable. $3B+ in profits, and this is more the norm than the exception. Big Brown owns the majority of their assets, and a lot of them are leased from the leasing company owned by Brown.

We are the smallest segment of the company and we generate the largest amount of revenue.

"Once the legacies have matched LCCs and gotten rid of their pensions, then FedEx and UPS will have that pressure."
Why, because AirTran will eventually carry packages to Hong Kong cheaper than us? Because Frontier's trucking side and supply-chain-management will move packages around the world a lot cheaper than UPS or FedEx?

I can't help but laugh everytime I read something like this. A company cannot totally axe a pension plan unless they are in Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection. Being a public owned company, I doubt UPS or FedEx would file Chapter 11 just to get rid of pensions.

And, in case anyone is wondering about LCC's in the cargo industry, they have been around already for years. The companies out of YIP and the supplementals flying under ACMI's. The reason they cannot threaten UPS or FedEx is because they are not the companies that UPS and FedEx are. I'm not talking about money or jets, but rather the structure of the business and the variety of services offered by them.

 

[skykid]

Clyde, I don't need you to tell me what a cargo company does, or what it takes to axe a pension. What I'm talking about is the trend that will sooner or later reach you, which is the end of traditional retirement plans. Not just the airline industry. I believe unless you work for the government (and even the military is seeing retirement benefits get smaller) pensions are going to be scarce. I'm not talking about next year, but I wouldn't count on a pension if I was just getting hired by UPS or ANY other organization. I'm fully aware that right now there is no legal way to end an employee group's pension plan outside of Ch11, without their consent. We have no idea what is going to happen with the PBGC in the next several years and what kind of sweeping changes are in store. On the wage issue, what is happening to the pax carriers is not happening in a vacuum, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if UPS made $6+ bil in profits, your management can point to the wages us toads flying pax are now making. I'm glad you got a good laugh from my post anyway! Hopefully I'm wrong on all this.


Gen, hopefully next year you can cut and paste this and show how I was wrong about Delta. I was certainly wrong about the number of retirees you predicted! I think the reason Delta will be pulling down the domestic schedule will be because of a massive effort to avoid Ch11 or because of Ch11. Unless all 80 of those flights you were talking about are making money or better yet making money going across the pond, I think adding capacity is a mistake. Northwest just canceled their planned growth for the year, UAL just pulled down domestic seats another 14% and added about the same international. Delta should be doing the same.

 

[cheezflyer]

Moron

I'll take a job with ANY airline on the list in ANY order!

You will eventually change your mind and rank airlines on a preferential list when you get more than your 1600 hours. As for the GuppyKiller label you are only pissing off Mainline guys and making commutes harder for RJ drivers everywhere.

 

[Wojo]

Skydid -


1) Military retirements dropping? Huh? Being in the military presently I can tell you that there are no current drops. I suspect there will be some folks forced out soon with severance pay but for now the same retirement amounts fully apply.

2) I doubt UPS and FEDEX wages will drop - we'll see when either are through negotiations but don't count on it - they make money, a lot of it and that's the bargaining chip.

 

[skykid]

Wojo, I entered the military in 1985 and am currently in the military. I can tell you with 100% accuracy the deal in place when I signed on is not the deal I have now. In fact, it was never a "deal" and uncle Sam can change it when he wants. When I retire, my percentages are going to be different than the deal my Dad got, changed for the worse. I know a lot of retirees who can talk to you for hours about changes in medical retirement benefits.

I don't think UPS and FedEx wages will drop either, at least not anytime soon, since we don't know what will happen tomorrow. This guy wants advice on how to rank these companies - my opinion is long term FedEx and UPS compensation are going to be tied in many ways to the passenger airlines. What I said was, they will be under pressure to mirror what is happening to the passenger airlines. That's just common sense. I'd still rate FedEx and UPS number one and two on the list. I would start over at FedEx right now if given the opportunity.

 

[Clyde]

Clyde, I don't need you to tell me what a cargo company does, or what it takes to axe a pension. What I'm talking about is the trend that will sooner or later reach you, which is the end of traditional retirement plans. Not just the airline industry. I believe unless you work for the government (and even the military is seeing retirement benefits get smaller) pensions are going to be scarce. I'm not talking about next year, but I wouldn't count on a pension if I was just getting hired by UPS or ANY other organization. I'm fully aware that right now there is no legal way to end an employee group's pension plan outside of Ch11, without their consent. We have no idea what is going to happen with the PBGC in the next several years and what kind of sweeping changes are in store. On the wage issue, what is happening to the pax carriers is not happening in a vacuum, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if UPS made $6+ bil in profits, your management can point to the wages us toads flying pax are now making. I'm glad you got a good laugh from my post anyway! Hopefully I'm wrong on all this.


Gen, hopefully next year you can cut and paste this and show how I was wrong about Delta. I was certainly wrong about the number of retirees you predicted! I think the reason Delta will be pulling down the domestic schedule will be because of a massive effort to avoid Ch11 or because of Ch11. Unless all 80 of those flights you were talking about are making money or better yet making money going across the pond, I think adding capacity is a mistake. Northwest just canceled their planned growth for the year, UAL just pulled down domestic seats another 14% and added about the same international. Delta should be doing the same.

"Clyde, I don't need you to tell me what a cargo company does, or what it takes to axe a pension."
For starters, UPS is not a cargo company. True, we carry cargo in the bellies of our aircraft, but we are considered a transportation conglomerate with emphasis being an integral part of the customer's manufacturing process. i.e., logistics and supply-chain-management.

"What I'm talking about is the trend that will sooner or later reach you, which is the end of traditional retirement plans."
Doubtful. With SS all but dead and the government already dealing with the mess at UAL and USAirways, the last thing they want is to encourage healthy companies from dropping their pension plans needlessly. You might as well as included the big 3 automakers and every other industry in your statement. BTW, it wouldn't be good for a company as large and successful as UPS to just do away with pensions. First, this is a HUGE tax write-off for the company, as strong as their cash flow is, it would harm them to not have this. Second, if they were going to axe our pensions than they would also have to do so for the teamsters. Do you think truck drivers would find it fair that they should lose their pensions because the passenger airlines in the muck? Third, a lot of the managers receive a sizeble pension when they retire. I doubt they are going to vote themselves out of a pension. Most of them started out by loading trucks and have been promoted over the years. i.e., you are not going ot see any airline-style execs being hired here off the streets.

"I'm not talking about next year, but I wouldn't count on a pension if I was just getting hired by UPS or ANY other organization."
That should be the attitude of EVERYONE working EVERYWHERE, no matter how successful your company is. I'm planning on receiving a pension, but I am also going to retire on my 401k and personal retirement investments when I reach 60. My pensions (yes, two of them) are going to be gravy money. Personal finance is why some people can retire and not others.

"On the wage issue, what is happening to the pax carriers is not happening in a vacuum, that's all I'm saying. I don't care if UPS made $6+ bil in profits, your management can point to the wages us toads flying pax are now making."
Out of all of the expenses my company endures, the pilot salaries (fact) are the lowest. Our compensation expense is a spit-in-the-ocean compared to everything else. It would be extremely difficult for them to point to us and say that our wages are bringing down their profits, especially when there is growth and profits continue to increase.
Now, at the passenger airlines it's another story. Labor is their biggest expense, right up there with fuel. The pax airlines are not diversified. Their bread-and-butter consists entirely on carrying a passenger from point A to point B. People are not going to take trains and steamships, but there are way too many seats chasing way too little folks. Combine that with people at certain carriers willing to fly for just about nothing, and you have a recipe for economic disaster with the pax side.
I would say the pax airlines are in a vacuum. Competition, expenses, supply-and-demand. These are not experienced by UPS and FedEx on the same magnitude. So, like I said before, you might as well be asking our truck drivers to take a paycut because of what is happening in the passenger airline industry.
The airline here is the smallest segment of the company. It generates the greatest amount of revenue. How many passenger airlines can say that about themselves?
Labor expense at the passenger airlines is definitely a hinderance, but it did not cause them to fall. Poor upper management and serious overcapacity is what did it. The labor expenses are just salt to an already much opened sore.

"I don't care if UPS made $6+ bil in profits, your management can point to the wages us toads flying pax are now making."
They have already tried that, and were not successful. All we have to do is point to ABX or FedEx and compare their wages to ours, i.e., other companies in the same type of business. Also, the financial records and growth (both forecasted and present) make it extremely difficult for them to cry woe is us.

"Hopefully I'm wrong on all this."
Hopefully the passenger side can recover and conversations like this one won't have to occur. Unfortunately, I don't think there is a need to limit pensions at most of the carriers, it's just a tactical management move. But regardless, I think there is going to be some serious consolidation before too long. Some carriers won't be around or will be merged into others, but that is going to be the next big step. When that happens, stability will set in, wages may come back up, and pensions/retirement plans will be more solid.