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111 AA pilots retired on 9-1-11!

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Management's afraid another 500 could go on October 1. Most of those would be 777 or 767 CA's.

APA is in NO mood to give AMR the right to contract out the flying to the recent retirees while training takes place.

TC
 
I think that their retirement is tied to AMR stock prices with a 90 day lookback, which is likely what caused the jump in retirements.

AMR increased their recalls to 40/month. They'll need to increase further; they'll need a pretty big temporary training pipeline to fill that hole. 100/month on a temporary basis?
My guess is hiring off the street early 2012.

Has AMR been short on line pilots?
 
That's the problem managers are facing. They have no idea when the over-60 crowd will pull the trigger.

Perhaps they should staff like the worst case scenario would happen the first of the month.

Nah, that would require prior planning. What was I thinking?
 
Fubijaakr said:
That's the problem managers are facing. They have no idea when the over-60 crowd will pull the trigger.

Perhaps they should staff like the worst case scenario would happen the first of the month.

Nah, that would require prior planning. What was I thinking?
Click to expand...

Vizzini, truly, you have a dizzying intellect.
 
Andy said:
I think that their retirement is tied to AMR stock prices with a 90 day lookback, which is likely what caused the jump in retirements.

AMR increased their recalls to 40/month. They'll need to increase further; they'll need a pretty big temporary training pipeline to fill that hole. 100/month on a temporary basis?
My guess is hiring off the street early 2012.

Has AMR been short on line pilots?
Click to expand...

That 90 day lookback has to do with the stock being a lot higher before the Country deficit downgrade by S&P. Someone told me that there could have been up to 500 leaving yesterday. Couldn't that park entire fleets?(no Captains?)


Godspeed.


OYS
 
On Your Six said:
That 90 day lookback has to do with the stock being a lot higher before the Country deficit downgrade by S&P. Someone told me that there could have been up to 500 leaving yesterday. Couldn't that park entire fleets?(no Captains?)

Godspeed.

OYS
Click to expand...

OYS, AMR's got a couple of problems.
First, the lookback tied to stock price. The article mentioned 60 but I've always heard 90, hence my question on length of lookback. The only way I can reconcile the discrepency is if you are able to lock in the 60 day lookback from the date you drop your retirement papers, which would then translate to 90 days prior to retirement.
AMR's seen this before - every time the stock has big drops. The number of pilots who put in retirement papers tends to be much less than the number of takers. However, from what I've read, the difference between lookback retirement payout and a retirement payout based on today's stock price is pretty big. The article puts that number at 200-300K. So unless AMR's stock recovers prior to 1 Oct, they may see another month of greater than 100 retirements.

Second, there are a lot of BK whispers associated with AMR. Since the pilots can receive a lump sum on retirement, there may be a marked increase in pilot retirements at AMR if the whispers get louder. I'm sure many remember the mass exodus at Delta prior to them filing for BK.

I don't know how many widebody CAs AMR can churn out every month but that may need to run full bore for quite a while if they see a lot of retirements, even if AMR sees a decrease in block hours. Again, look at Delta for similar comparisons.

I doubt that entire fleets would need to be parked but there would likely be quite a few schedule disruptions before things settled down.

I can think of a few things AMR could try to keep the schedule running smoothly:
1) Try to get a court injunction to stop retirements; I think that Delta tried this maneuver. Problem is, AMR's contract still reads as age 60 being a 'normal' retirement age.
2) They could hire back retirees on a temporary basis. But my understanding is that contract talks between AMR and APA are strained so I doubt that APA would grant a waiver.
3) Do a stock buyback to drive the price higher which would result in pilots cancelling their retirements. The problem is that if you drive the price above $5, it becomes a big target for the shorts.
I'm sure that AMR management's kicking around a lot of different ideas.
 
And YOU: friendless, brainless, helpless, hopeless! Do you want me to send you back to where you were? Unemployed, in Greenland?
 
Don't see how the stock "buy-back" program will work.....AMR has no money. Hence the BK talks. Going to get interesting. :cool:
 
A stock buyback is something that companies that are making money do to make shareholders happy. If your operation is not producing cash...like AMR...a share buy-back program is not sustainable.

Also, if AMR did what I think you are proposing...buy a whole bunch of shares on a certain date in an effort to manipulate the closing price of the stock on a certain date....well, that would be a CRIMNIAL act and could get AMR and there management into some deep kim chee with the SEC.

Besides, it would be far cheaper to just recall some extra pilots, heck, it would be far cheaper to wet-lease a bunch of MD-11 from World and pay to settle the grievance that APA would file.
 
Tomct said:
Don't see how the stock "buy-back" program will work.....AMR has no money. Hence the BK talks. Going to get interesting. :cool:
Click to expand...

AMR had $5.6B in cash and short term instruments at the end of last Q. Only $457M was restricted. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...9NDMzMjU5fENoaWxkSUQ9NDUxNzI5fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

Granted, they need in excess of $2B just to end Ch 11. Go below that and it'd be Ch 7 because once you declare, all lines of credit go *poof*.

Note that they were $100M cash flow positive in the last quarter, in spite of reporting a loss. It probably wouldn't even take a $100M stock buyback to boost the stock to ~$5/share.

There are ways to obtain buyback money - issue new bonds or borrow money against assets. I don't know if AMR has any unencumbered assets and I'm not going to dig around to find out.
This wouldn't be the first time that a company in financial trouble bought back stock. But again, that was only one possible scenario. I don't discount any fun 'n games from any management to keep the wheels from coming off.
 
What about other airlines? UA/CO, DL, AS???? Anybody have any info on how many retirements are projected in the next month? Year?
 
Andy,

You suggested AMR get a court injunction to stop people from retiring? I don't think Delta did that, since I believe a huge amount left before the BK. How would you stop someone from retiring when it is a contractual right? You are starting to scare me a bit.


Godspeed.


OYS
 
On Your Six said:
Andy,

You suggested AMR get a court injunction to stop people from retiring? I don't think Delta did that, since I believe a huge amount left before the BK. How would you stop someone from retiring when it is a contractual right? You are starting to scare me a bit.
Click to expand...

Yeah, and I thought that calling in sick or not volunteering for overtime was a right. I've been proven wrong by the judicial system on both counts.
Will it work? I don't know. Would you have thought that a pilot would get fired and sued for getting a divorce? Continental fired and sued some pilots. Continental lost. Link: http://www.chron.com/business/article/Continental-fires-and-sues-pilots-in-alleged-1722581.php

Suing the pilots was not a suggestion; just a possible course of action by AMR. Bottom line is if you or I have an evil, twisted thought, several lawyers have already thought of it and prepared rough outlines on how to litigate the case.
 
Is the pay of $35/hr and a 64 hr guarantee for first year accurate? What are the junior bases? Thanks.
 
thunderworm said:
Is the pay of $35/hr and a 64 hr guarantee for first year accurate? What are the junior bases? Thanks.
Click to expand...

Pretty awful, huh? But then you get a chance to maybe make $73,000 year two. Six figures isn't reachable for a while. Aside from the former TWA guys, some of whom are going to STL, the recalled guys are all going to LGA and MIA.
 
Thanks. I was hoping that first year would be livable. I think I should stock up on ramen while I can still afford to buy it. I would like to see Doctors be told their first year pay will be below the poverty level, but next year you can feed your family. Not hating on AA just the industry as a whole. It sucks when you have a job you can't afford to stay at but van't afford to leave either.
 
Also dont forget AA is in contract negotiations and i would bet money that the new contract will improve on the 1st yr pay.
 
Flyby1206 said:
Also dont forget AA is in contract negotiations and i would bet money that the new contract will improve on the 1st yr pay.
Click to expand...

I'm sure it will, but only by a few bucks an hour. There are guys who, for the last nine years, have been making only a fraction of what they should have been. Rightfully so, they will sacrifice new-hire pay to benefit those who have been surviving on these concessionary pay rates for so long. Besides, APA can negotiate a great contract with unprecedented pay, then see it all figuratively thrown in the round file after AMR files bankruptcy.
 
Up to half of each newhire class will be from the current Eagle crop. $35/hour will stay as long as the resumes come flowing in. What do most RJ FO's make?

AMR doesn't need to hire astronauts any more, they want someone to fog a mirror.

As for retirements, those over 60 which includes a lot of people, can walk in, retire on the spot and get an automatic 90 day lookback (No less than 90 days, though. You can't cherry-pick your high number on the A-plan value.)

If you're under 60, you can (I believe) take the highest value at any time in the preceeding 90 days.

IMO, AMR "could" file Ch.11. I believe they are trying to stampede the unions into accepting crappy contracts. The FA's offered to keep their workrules and take 3%/year for 3 years and the company said no. The mech's or ramp were offered no or minimal increases and the members turned it down. The company said there would be less in the next offer.

TC
 
matchthehatch said:
Pretty awful, huh? But then you get a chance to maybe make $73,000 year two. Six figures isn't reachable for a while. Aside from the former TWA guys, some of whom are going to STL, the recalled guys are all going to LGA and MIA.
Click to expand...

It isnt that bad, any major including SWA your gonna be eating ramen for the first year. That's why they call it seniority.
 
AA717driver said:
Up to half of each newhire class will be from the current Eagle crop. $35/hour will stay as long as the resumes come flowing in. What do most RJ FO's make?

AMR doesn't need to hire astronauts any more, they want someone to fog a mirror.

As for retirements, those over 60 which includes a lot of people, can walk in, retire on the spot and get an automatic 90 day lookback (No less than 90 days, though. You can't cherry-pick your high number on the A-plan value.)

If you're under 60, you can (I believe) take the highest value at any time in the preceeding 90 days.

IMO, AMR "could" file Ch.11. I believe they are trying to stampede the unions into accepting crappy contracts. The FA's offered to keep their workrules and take 3%/year for 3 years and the company said no. The mech's or ramp were offered no or minimal increases and the members turned it down. The company said there would be less in the next offer.

TC
Click to expand...

Damn T. You're really making that recall sound appealing.
 
64 hr guarantee for line holders, which you won't be for a decade or two! 73 hr guarantee for reserves. There is international override pay as well (4/hr?).
 
I have a few AA questions:

1.) How many more furloughed pilot recalls does AA have?

2.) Recently, how many recalls go out per month?

3.) What is the deal that Eagle has for a flow-up once AA does truly hire off the street? (How many per class, and does that change when/if Eagle unit is spun-off?)

4.) Broad question to AA pilots, how do you like prospects for AA being a great place to catch onto in the next few years with the impending retirements of pilots and new a/c orders?

Thanks much...

-Snaab
 
Snaab said:
4.) Broad question to AA pilots, how do you like prospects for AA being a great place to catch onto in the next few years with the impending retirements of pilots and new a/c orders?

Thanks much...

-Snaab
Click to expand...

This sounds like a question for AA717.
 
As far as retirements alone, plus the huge training bubble if/when we take delivery of the Boeing/Airbii - AA's seniority list is set to go NUCLEAR in the next 10 years. Anyone hired in the first class at age 30 will be eventually be Seniority Numero Uno for many years.
 
Snaab--The deal for Eagle guys is 35 pct. of each newhire class (REAL newhires, not recallees as dip$hit Niccolau determined...) unless Eagle is furloughing then it goes to 50 pct.

Just heard tonight from the STL recall guru that, due to the large number of retirements in Sep., only 25 recallees a month. The schoolhouse will be full of the 4 training events per 777 CA retirement. October could see MORE retirements. AA is kind of hosed. Maybe REALLY hosed.

The recall acceptance rate is at 14.6 pct. Yes, our guru has it down to the gnat's a$$.

Keep the questions coming.

TC
 

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