111 AA pilots retired on 9-1-11!

[boknowsASA]

http://www.theairlinezone.com/2011/09/111-american-airlines-pilots-retire-on-sept-1/

 

[AA717driver]

Management's afraid another 500 could go on October 1. Most of those would be 777 or 767 CA's.

APA is in NO mood to give AMR the right to contract out the flying to the recent retirees while training takes place.

TC

 

[Andy]

I think that their retirement is tied to AMR stock prices with a 90 day lookback, which is likely what caused the jump in retirements.

AMR increased their recalls to 40/month. They'll need to increase further; they'll need a pretty big temporary training pipeline to fill that hole. 100/month on a temporary basis?
My guess is hiring off the street early 2012.

Has AMR been short on line pilots?

 

[Fubijaakr]

That's the problem managers are facing. They have no idea when the over-60 crowd will pull the trigger.

Perhaps they should staff like the worst case scenario would happen the first of the month.

Nah, that would require prior planning. What was I thinking?

 

[Andy]

That's the problem managers are facing. They have no idea when the over-60 crowd will pull the trigger.

Perhaps they should staff like the worst case scenario would happen the first of the month.

Nah, that would require prior planning. What was I thinking?

Vizzini, truly, you have a dizzying intellect.

 

[On Your Six]

I think that their retirement is tied to AMR stock prices with a 90 day lookback, which is likely what caused the jump in retirements.

AMR increased their recalls to 40/month. They'll need to increase further; they'll need a pretty big temporary training pipeline to fill that hole. 100/month on a temporary basis?
My guess is hiring off the street early 2012.

Has AMR been short on line pilots?

That 90 day lookback has to do with the stock being a lot higher before the Country deficit downgrade by S&P. Someone told me that there could have been up to 500 leaving yesterday. Couldn't that park entire fleets?(no Captains?)


Godspeed.


OYS

 

[Andy]

That 90 day lookback has to do with the stock being a lot higher before the Country deficit downgrade by S&P. Someone told me that there could have been up to 500 leaving yesterday. Couldn't that park entire fleets?(no Captains?)

Godspeed.

OYS

OYS, AMR's got a couple of problems.
First, the lookback tied to stock price. The article mentioned 60 but I've always heard 90, hence my question on length of lookback. The only way I can reconcile the discrepency is if you are able to lock in the 60 day lookback from the date you drop your retirement papers, which would then translate to 90 days prior to retirement.
AMR's seen this before - every time the stock has big drops. The number of pilots who put in retirement papers tends to be much less than the number of takers. However, from what I've read, the difference between lookback retirement payout and a retirement payout based on today's stock price is pretty big. The article puts that number at 200-300K. So unless AMR's stock recovers prior to 1 Oct, they may see another month of greater than 100 retirements.

Second, there are a lot of BK whispers associated with AMR. Since the pilots can receive a lump sum on retirement, there may be a marked increase in pilot retirements at AMR if the whispers get louder. I'm sure many remember the mass exodus at Delta prior to them filing for BK.

I don't know how many widebody CAs AMR can churn out every month but that may need to run full bore for quite a while if they see a lot of retirements, even if AMR sees a decrease in block hours. Again, look at Delta for similar comparisons.

I doubt that entire fleets would need to be parked but there would likely be quite a few schedule disruptions before things settled down.

I can think of a few things AMR could try to keep the schedule running smoothly:
1) Try to get a court injunction to stop retirements; I think that Delta tried this maneuver. Problem is, AMR's contract still reads as age 60 being a 'normal' retirement age.
2) They could hire back retirees on a temporary basis. But my understanding is that contract talks between AMR and APA are strained so I doubt that APA would grant a waiver.
3) Do a stock buyback to drive the price higher which would result in pilots cancelling their retirements. The problem is that if you drive the price above $5, it becomes a big target for the shorts.
I'm sure that AMR management's kicking around a lot of different ideas.

 

[V1rowt8]

Vizzini, truly, you have a dizzying intellect.

" he's just getting started, and he's Sicillian"!

 

[bpapaDC8]

And YOU: friendless, brainless, helpless, hopeless! Do you want me to send you back to where you were? Unemployed, in Greenland?

 

[Tomct]

Don't see how the stock "buy-back" program will work.....AMR has no money. Hence the BK talks. Going to get interesting.

 

[igneousy2]

A stock buyback is something that companies that are making money do to make shareholders happy. If your operation is not producing cash...like AMR...a share buy-back program is not sustainable.

Also, if AMR did what I think you are proposing...buy a whole bunch of shares on a certain date in an effort to manipulate the closing price of the stock on a certain date....well, that would be a CRIMNIAL act and could get AMR and there management into some deep kim chee with the SEC.

Besides, it would be far cheaper to just recall some extra pilots, heck, it would be far cheaper to wet-lease a bunch of MD-11 from World and pay to settle the grievance that APA would file.

 

[Andy]

Don't see how the stock "buy-back" program will work.....AMR has no money. Hence the BK talks. Going to get interesting.

AMR had $5.6B in cash and short term instruments at the end of last Q. Only $457M was restricted. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/Externa...9NDMzMjU5fENoaWxkSUQ9NDUxNzI5fFR5cGU9MQ==&t=1

Granted, they need in excess of $2B just to end Ch 11. Go below that and it'd be Ch 7 because once you declare, all lines of credit go *poof*.

Note that they were $100M cash flow positive in the last quarter, in spite of reporting a loss. It probably wouldn't even take a $100M stock buyback to boost the stock to ~$5/share.

There are ways to obtain buyback money - issue new bonds or borrow money against assets. I don't know if AMR has any unencumbered assets and I'm not going to dig around to find out.
This wouldn't be the first time that a company in financial trouble bought back stock. But again, that was only one possible scenario. I don't discount any fun 'n games from any management to keep the wheels from coming off.

 

[BEfly]

What about other airlines? UA/CO, DL, AS???? Anybody have any info on how many retirements are projected in the next month? Year?

 

[On Your Six]

Andy,

You suggested AMR get a court injunction to stop people from retiring? I don't think Delta did that, since I believe a huge amount left before the BK. How would you stop someone from retiring when it is a contractual right? You are starting to scare me a bit.


Godspeed.


OYS

 

[Andy]

Andy,

You suggested AMR get a court injunction to stop people from retiring? I don't think Delta did that, since I believe a huge amount left before the BK. How would you stop someone from retiring when it is a contractual right? You are starting to scare me a bit.

Yeah, and I thought that calling in sick or not volunteering for overtime was a right. I've been proven wrong by the judicial system on both counts.
Will it work? I don't know. Would you have thought that a pilot would get fired and sued for getting a divorce? Continental fired and sued some pilots. Continental lost. Link: http://www.chron.com/business/article/Continental-fires-and-sues-pilots-in-alleged-1722581.php

Suing the pilots was not a suggestion; just a possible course of action by AMR. Bottom line is if you or I have an evil, twisted thought, several lawyers have already thought of it and prepared rough outlines on how to litigate the case.

 

[thunderworm]

Is the pay of $35/hr and a 64 hr guarantee for first year accurate? What are the junior bases? Thanks.

 

[V1rowt8]

And YOU: friendless, brainless, helpless, hopeless! Do you want me to send you back to where you were? Unemployed, in Greenland?

"We are men of action, lies do not become us".

 

[matchthehatch]

Is the pay of $35/hr and a 64 hr guarantee for first year accurate? What are the junior bases? Thanks.

Pretty awful, huh? But then you get a chance to maybe make $73,000 year two. Six figures isn't reachable for a while. Aside from the former TWA guys, some of whom are going to STL, the recalled guys are all going to LGA and MIA.

 

[thunderworm]

Thanks. I was hoping that first year would be livable. I think I should stock up on ramen while I can still afford to buy it. I would like to see Doctors be told their first year pay will be below the poverty level, but next year you can feed your family. Not hating on AA just the industry as a whole. It sucks when you have a job you can't afford to stay at but van't afford to leave either.

 

[Flyby1206]

Also dont forget AA is in contract negotiations and i would bet money that the new contract will improve on the 1st yr pay.