1000 PIC Jet/Turbine Watch

[pilotyip]

nope swaayze, the market is changing and next year 1000 PIC will be good number because all of the 1000+ PIC pilots will have been hired. Just watch.

 

[jumppilot]

Yip,

You have a problem. You were right about the 2007 boom, or at least turn around, while others said you were wrong.

I'm curious to see how your 1000PIC estimate turns out.

Oh, and for those that missed it, YIP was right about 2007.

 

[pilotyip]

The supply of pilots is limited; the supply is being tested at the lower end right now at levels few ever imagined. The top of the pool is being skimmed off right now by all of the good places hiring, places like SWA, FedEx, UPS, etc. There is also a limited supply on the upper end. Competitive mins will drop at every airline. I saw it in the mid 80's, USAways hiring pilots with 500 hr PIC in a King Air, and back then USAirways was a preferred job over UPS, FedEx, and SWA.

 

[Lear70]

nope swaayze, the market is changing and next year 1000 PIC will be good number because all of the 1000+ PIC pilots will have been hired. Just watch.

I think you may be a bit optimistic on this one.

Northwest won't be hiring very many, maybe a few hundred over the next 2 years, as they will start reconfiguring their fleet with no substantial net ADDITION of mainline aircraft.

DAL and UAL are having "issues" getting all their OWN people back in the door, it's going at a snail's pace.

FDX has unofficially announced the end of meet and greets until the late fall.

UPS has completely stopped hiring.

CAL continues to hire, but still only projecting 300-400 pilots this year.

Add age 65 to all that, coming soon to a FSDO near you, and you have the likelihood of a slow hiring year. 2008 MIGHT be a bit more interesting, just based on "POSSIBLE growth at a few majors.

This year (2007) sees a need for aproximately 2,500 pilots at the Majors.

I guarantee you there's WELL over 2,500 RJ Captains with 3,000 to 4,000 hours PIC Jet out there banging down the doors and FedEx'ing application packets they're so eager.

I don't think we'll be hurting for PIC time anytime soon - just not enough hiring yet. MAYBE at the end of 2008 you'll see those new-hire times creep into the 1,800 or even 1,500 PIC category.

There's a LOT of pilots out there wanting a new job and perfectly qualified for it.

 

[pilotyip]

Time will tell

Lear only time will tell, but I remember the same thing from 1996, all airlines had 10,000 plus high quality resumes. By 1999 they were scrambling to find potential cpatain material, UAL and NWA hired without college degrees. SWA was interviewing DA-20 driver's with 500 TJ PIC. Spirit was hiring Captains over the phone from our company. But as I said you might be right, but I go with history the same as I did with the 2007 hiring boom back in 2003.

 

[labbutt]

810! and of course the freight dries up after a record dec/jan/feb! phone ring elp-yip-elp damnit!

 

[B-J-J Fighter]

I have to give YIP credit, he has been predicting this for the last 3 or 4 yrs.