Pilot Shortage affecting the Majors

[atpcliff]

Just talked to a regional pilot. A friend of his is a MlEC officer at a very large US carrier.

The MEC guy was talking to his airline's CEO. He asked what was the #1 problem that the CEO had to deal with at their airline. The CEO said the upcoming pilot shortage. The CEO did not see how they could realistically avoid parking mainline aircraft due to a shortage of pilots to fly those aircraft.

 

[Morettis]

Lol, good one! Majors have a never ending supply of applicants, they're called regionals. The regionals are the ones that will struggle.

 

[N1atEcon]

SWA widow was open for what, two days? They had over 5000 qualified applicants.

 

[motojet]

So a friend talked to a friend who talked to the CEO... Must be accurate.

 

[Dan Roman]

Agree with the shortage perception. No shortage of pilots with 1000's of hours of RJ or heavy turboprop time. Personally I think all the upcoming retirements at the legacies and the new 1500 hr rule is going to put a lot of pressure on the regional airlines. The only defense they would have is to create better working conditions and pay to prevent a mass exodus.
Use to be airlines like Piedmont, Allegheny, Ozark, PSA, North Central etc all provided careers as good as UAL, Pan Am, Eastern, Delta etc.
There is no reason for the huge pay/work rule disparity between the larger carriers and the smaller ones.

 

[ImbracableCrunk]

You mean the Stepping Stone line we always hear us a lie???

 

[flyboyike]

So a friend talked to a friend who talked to the CEO... Must be accurate.

He also had so-and-so in his jumpseat last week, and....

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

No no people....

The CEO faces a shortage of Pilots who will do this job for NOTHING.

Time to step up the pay rates people, stop taking concessions and crap deals.....you don't have to goto Hah-Vahd to know what supply and demand means...

 

[jmreii]

Just talked to a regional pilot. A friend of his is a MlEC officer at a very large US carrier.

The MEC guy was talking to his airline's CEO. He asked what was the #1 problem that the CEO had to deal with at their airline. The CEO said the upcoming pilot shortage. The CEO did not see how they could realistically avoid parking mainline aircraft due to a shortage of pilots to fly those aircraft.

This friend should have ask the CEO are your company dependent on regional airline feed for its life's blood. If not he shouldn't worry about it. Those companies in which are dependent may need to worry!!!!!

 

[pilotyip]

Use to be airlines like Piedmont, Allegheny, Ozark, PSA, North Central etc all provided careers as good as UAL, Pan Am, Eastern, Delta etc.
There is no reason for the huge pay/work rule disparity between the larger carriers and the smaller ones.

Yes there is, it is called scope and it is imposed by unions to ensure that those to have continue to have by ensuring those who do not have continue to not have. If the unions had said to the management, sure bring on the little airplanes, pay them crap, but give them a seniority number we would not have this problem.

 

[GhettoBeechjet]

This time we do have the perfect storm to start to deal with the outsourcing problem. The regionals are going to struggle to find people which will start to cut off mainlines cheap feed. This started to happen in 2007 before the economy went of the cliff and that was when they could hire 200 hour pilots. The question is will we as mainline pilots seize the opportunity to put the small jet pilots on our MSLs and recapture that flying?

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

And about that time (2008)they kicked the can down the curb to Age 65.....

No more relief....

Like Ray Liotta said in Goodfellas...... So you had a fire? F U pay ME!! Business tough? F U Pay ME!

Bottom line.....time to get what we are owed.

 

[Tripower455]

If the unions had said to the management, sure bring on the little airplanes, pay them crap, but give them a seniority number we would not have this problem.

Yup... This is the crux of the issue, but back in the day, the mainline guys couldn't fathom a turboprop guy flying their jets.

 

[imacdog]

LOL, you'll believe anything, won't you Cliff?

 

[OCP]

There are far fewer pilots total at all the Regionals than there are age 65 retirements coming. That is with zero growth at the majors. Couple that with not all regional pilots are going to leave their jobs and the fact that there are very few people getting into the job behind the regional guys who are leaving that creates a large shortage at the regional level and eventually at the major level. Why is this hard to understand?

 

[fuzzy077]

Kit Darby??? Is that you????

 

[General Lee]

Yes there is, it is called scope and it is imposed by unions to ensure that those to have continue to have by ensuring those who do not have continue to not have. If the unions had said to the management, sure bring on the little airplanes, pay them crap, but give them a seniority number we would not have this problem.

Major airlines want to control who they hire, which is their right. If they have good pay and benefits, they'll have no problem filling classes. The Regionals will be the ones having to also up their pay, which will make them less efficient and could lose contracts. Regionals may fail, and the mainlines will have to get smaller mainline planes, like 717s or E190s, to fill in the gaps. The remaining regionals will fly to only smaller cities that can't turn a profit on a 717 or E190. Places that used to have 8 RJ flights a day will instead have 3 717 flights, and people will LOVE it.....


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[av8tor19]

General has a point. Why do you think AA/US is so willing to give up slots? Maybe they know those routes are going to be discontinued anyway due to the pilot shortage.

What I will like to see is how they explain that to the Congressman who they told that their city will still be served after the merger. I'm sure with the awesome contract PSA got they will be busting at the seams with apps.

 

[Bringupthebird]

The question is will we as mainline pilots seize the opportunity to put the small jet pilots on our MSLs and recapture that flying?

You do know how that will affect the book rates on narrow-body aircraft, don't you? Be careful what you ask for...

50% of the fleet is at substandard wages and you expect management to generously open their wallets? Costs will not be allowed to spiral a la 1980. Management will come out with their "pie is only so big" talk and "split it however you like" (in other words Fight Club). You have to recognize when two parties have separate interests and let each one battle it out themselves, rather than pretending that the brotherhood will stand united (which has never worked when the brothers are competitors). Helping mainlines absorb the impact of a pilot shortage will simply provide a small insurance of regional pilot career progression in exchange for allowing every narrowbody under 150 seats to be pay banded with RJs. How's that for a thank-you-very-much? You help guarantee that a regional pilot can extend their substandard wages for an additional 10 years in an Airbus.

USAir is a partial picture of what I am saying (without the flow through and with slightly larger E-190 equipment).

 

[scoreboardII]

US Air is an aberration as a result of it's unions fiasco's.

Bringing all branded flying under one roof ensures that company will be successful. With that, then comes pay. You got to have a job before you can worry about what it pays. Once everything is under one roof, then you parlay the pay.

What happens now, with 50 plus percentile flying being outsourced to a third "give a crap" party, is the wages at mainline are in fact depressed because management knows they can force you to eat the lower wage (USAIR), and if not now, they come get it through bankruptcy. Not the opposite as you state..