Pilot Shortage affecting the Majors

[Tweaker]

The new flight and duty rule will probably hurt regionals much more than they will the majors, because regional pilots generally fly more legs (which will reduce the duty day), even though regional pilots typically had longer duty days.

Also, early reports shorten the duty day as well, so once again regional airlines will be affected to a greater degree.

The regional model relies on pilots working long hours for crappy pay with fewer days off. This new rule has the potential to make some regionals unprofitable.

Anything that gives regional airline management hassles is fine with me. Nothing but a bunch of scum, in most cases.

24 carat gold post

 

[FLYLOW22]

Just talked to a regional pilot. A friend of his is a MlEC officer at a very large US carrier.

The MEC guy was talking to his airline's CEO. He asked what was the #1 problem that the CEO had to deal with at their airline. The CEO said the upcoming pilot shortage. The CEO did not see how they could realistically avoid parking mainline aircraft due to a shortage of pilots to fly those aircraft.

This has been the goal for decades.

1) Drive labor costs down through successive pattern bargaining. CHECK

2) Consolidate the industry through mergers and acquisitions. CHECK

3) Farm out International loads (Emirates jumbo order for one). Coming...

4) Replace traditional "mainline" domestic flying with lower cost labor units flying 100-120 seat frames (CRJ1000 ex.). Coming...


It may take another 20 years... but it's coming.

 

[FLYLOW22]

SWA widow was open for what, two days? They had over 5000 qualified applicants.

Only 5,000? That's way down.

 

[livin'thesim]

The real issue is that lots of people want to get into a purse-slapping contest over the definition of "shortage".

The supply of qualified pilots is decreasing, that is certain. The real question is whether pilot positions will remain static or decrease as well. Another huge oil spike could create a large pilot surplus.

 

[atpcliff]

Yes there is, it is called scope and it is imposed by unions to ensure that those to have continue to have by ensuring those who do not have continue to not have. If the unions had said to the management, sure bring on the little airplanes, pay them crap, but give them a seniority number we would not have this problem.

And at least one of the big 3 CEOs is also working on this...a "B" scale with no regional pilots...everyone at mainline.

 

[General Lee]

This has been the goal for decades.

1) Drive labor costs down through successive pattern bargaining. CHECK

2) Consolidate the industry through mergers and acquisitions. CHECK

3) Farm out International loads (Emirates jumbo order for one). Coming...

4) Replace traditional "mainline" domestic flying with lower cost labor units flying 100-120 seat frames (CRJ1000 ex.). Coming...


It may take another 20 years... but it's coming.

Wrong. The Big 3 US carriers are making huge profits, and pilot scope clauses limit INTL "Farm out" of flying. That could only be changed in BK, and thanks to Consolidatiion, the big 3 will only get stronger. The big Alliances will squash the need for Worldwide mergers. Sorry, but it's all thanks to pilot scope clauses getting stronger. DL's scope got stronger. UAL got rid of the Aer Lingus IAD-MAD flying. Even Joint Ventures have to have divided flying between carriers. Again, unlikely.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

And about that time (2008)they kicked the can down the curb to Age 65.....

No more relief....

Like Ray Liotta said in Goodfellas...... So you had a fire? F U pay ME!! Business tough? F U Pay ME!

Bottom line.....time to get what we are owed.

You get what YOU are owed??

Why do you think you deserve anything for selling out half your domestic routes?

Some balls there

Time for those slugging it out in your whipsaw market to get what they're owed- you don't deserve sh/t

 

[General Lee]

You get what YOU are owed??

Why do you think you deserve anything for selling out half your domestic routes?

Some balls there

Ummmm, thanks to your 717s and parking 215 50 seaters, it's coming back..... And, even SWA pulls out of routes that a 737 can't do profitably. Some CRJs are needed to fly to places like Valdosta and Dothan. You know that!


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

Ummmm, thanks to your 717s and parking 215 50 seaters, it's coming back..... And, even SWA pulls out of routes that a 737 can't do profitably. Some CRJs are needed to fly to places like Valdosta and Dothan. You know that!


Bye Bye---General Lee

Fly them yourself then. Don't disenfranchise and create a subclass of pilots whipsawed to fly big jets at sub market wages to stay in the career while siphoning off profits for yourself-
Again- you don't deserve any fupm- the regional pilots do

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

"Maybe we can exploit more Rich Kids like Wavey who will buy their training!"
-Herb Kelleher-

 

[waveflyer]

Nice quote, but I came from nothing but good a good parent

 

[IBNAV8R]

General has a point. Why do you think AA/US is so willing to give up slots? Maybe they know those routes are going to be discontinued anyway due to the pilot shortage.

What I will like to see is how they explain that to the Congressman who they told that their city will still be served after the merger. I'm sure with the awesome contract PSA got they will be busting at the seams with apps.

"If you like your air service, you get to keep it."

 

[doh]

"If you like your air service, you get to keep it."

"Period"

 

[bizicmo]

Pilot shortage affecting the majors? Yes instead of hiring 15 interns they will only get 15 interns.

 

[pilotyip]

Nice quote, but I came from nothing but good a good parent

not parents?

 

[waveflyer]

Yeah yip, the other's a deadbeat

"I have had all of the disadvantages required for success."
Larry Ellison

 

[dicko]

The Regionals will be the ones having to also up their pay, which will make them less efficient and could lose contracts.

Bye Bye---General Lee

DALPA just sat idly as RA and Lee Moak signed an agreement that lowered the pay at DAL Regionals - In exchange for an interview. Regional pay is going down.

How do you reconcile that fact, with your fantasy.

 

[General Lee]

DALPA just sat idly as RA and Lee Moak signed an agreement that lowered the pay at DAL Regionals - In exchange for an interview. Regional pay is going down.

How do you reconcile that fact, with your fantasy.

Regionals have 50 seaters that can't make enough revenue to pay for the gas. That isn't Dalpa's fault. The new FARs and fatigue rules mandated by the FAA will get rid of CDO's, make Regionals less efficient, and create higher mins to hire pilots. Again, mandated by the Govt. Dalpa doesn't negotiate directly for the Regionals, but previously had flow up and flow down agreements, which perhaps DL didn't like. They want to hire who they want to hire. That is DL's option. Obviously DL doesn't have a problem yet attracting applicants, and the $68 an hour first year pay beats the others handily. That isn't fantasy.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[krewmeel]

There is a dirty word that is about to become relevant in the next 10 years or so relating to civilian commercial aviation: UAV. This will be the next generation of pilots equivalent to RJs and scope.

I predict that when the pilot shortage becomes very acute, and it begins to affect the majors in a big way, maybe around 2020, then airline management is going to get very interested in extreme automation. It is no secret that pilots are a huge pain in the a$$ of management. We are perceived by them as winey, highly paid, difficult to deal with, difficult to replace, blue collar labor. When the unions start demanding increasingly improved contracts, as they will when the leverage is on their side, then management will start looking for a replacement for human, or at least airborne pilots.

It will start with single pilot aircraft. Boeing has already said that the 787 is convertible to be a single pilot aircraft. The next generation of AC will be OVERTLY designed to be single pilot aircraft. The generation after that will be flown by technicians on the ground (like the Airforce is doing now) and eventually super computers.

You say "people will never fly in a pilotless aircraft". If you are saying this, you are probably over 40. The millennial generation, who will be running our country eventually, grew up with high technology and trust it implicitly. They will have no problem with HAL 9000....if it keeps the ticket prices down.

What is likely to save mid-career major airline pilots like myself (20 years till 65), is that the FAA is a very conservative, 1960's style government bureaucracy that moves at the speed of smell. The ATC system is not going to be able to do "free flight" anytime soon, even though the technology has existed since the 90's. The fact that we still do singleplex two way radio communications is an example of this. The bandwidth this requires is extremely inefficient in the digital age. Also, with regards to single pilot ops., we are averaging a death in the cockpit about once per year. Probably do to the fact most airline pilots are older...and many are obese. This will keep FO's around for awhile longer. All bets are off for the 20 somethings getting on now, however.

Any young guy or gal who shells out $100 grand to "live the dream" right now might have good job security and good wages/benefits for about 15-20 years. After that they had better have a back up plan as they are likely to be rendered obsolete by technology.

Don't believe me? Remember the railroads used to have "firemen" who made sure that the fires were stoked in the steam engines. They were kept on even after diesels took over due to featherbedding by the unions. Eventually, however, the unions could not save them.

I don't mean to pi$$ in anyones Grapenuts, but young people getting involved in this career need to be realistic. Its a lot of money to pay for what is something of an old fashioned job that is likely to be automated out of existence.

 

[bizicmo]

Just hand the passenger the statistics of the global hawk and any concerns of a pilotless aircraft will quickly melt away.

 

[THEPRFCT10]

Just hand the passenger the statistics of the global hawk and any concerns of a pilotless aircraft will quickly melt away.

I agree. My Air Force Safety school partner crashed 3 Predators! Crosswinds a bitch he says!

 

[NEDude]

There is a dirty word that is about to become relevant in the next 10 years or so relating to civilian commercial aviation: UAV. This will be the next generation of pilots equivalent to RJs and scope.

I predict that when the pilot shortage becomes very acute, and it begins to affect the majors in a big way, maybe around 2020, then airline management is going to get very interested in extreme automation. It is no secret that pilots are a huge pain in the a$$ of management. We are perceived by them as winey, highly paid, difficult to deal with, difficult to replace, blue collar labor. When the unions start demanding increasingly improved contracts, as they will when the leverage is on their side, then management will start looking for a replacement for human, or at least airborne pilots.

It will start with single pilot aircraft. Boeing has already said that the 787 is convertible to be a single pilot aircraft. The next generation of AC will be OVERTLY designed to be single pilot aircraft. The generation after that will be flown by technicians on the ground (like the Airforce is doing now) and eventually super computers.

You say "people will never fly in a pilotless aircraft". If you are saying this, you are probably over 40. The millennial generation, who will be running our country eventually, grew up with high technology and trust it implicitly. They will have no problem with HAL 9000....if it keeps the ticket prices down.

What is likely to save mid-career major airline pilots like myself (20 years till 65), is that the FAA is a very conservative, 1960's style government bureaucracy that moves at the speed of smell. The ATC system is not going to be able to do "free flight" anytime soon, even though the technology has existed since the 90's. The fact that we still do singleplex two way radio communications is an example of this. The bandwidth this requires is extremely inefficient in the digital age. Also, with regards to single pilot ops., we are averaging a death in the cockpit about once per year. Probably do to the fact most airline pilots are older...and many are obese. This will keep FO's around for awhile longer. All bets are off for the 20 somethings getting on now, however.

Any young guy or gal who shells out $100 grand to "live the dream" right now might have good job security and good wages/benefits for about 15-20 years. After that they had better have a back up plan as they are likely to be rendered obsolete by technology.

Don't believe me? Remember the railroads used to have "firemen" who made sure that the fires were stoked in the steam engines. They were kept on even after diesels took over due to featherbedding by the unions. Eventually, however, the unions could not save them.

I don't mean to pi$$ in anyones Grapenuts, but young people getting involved in this career need to be realistic. Its a lot of money to pay for what is something of an old fashioned job that is likely to be automated out of existence.

Not going to happen in our lifetime. NASA has been conducting studies regarding 1 pilot aircraft and they are finding logistical/human factors issues are very significant. Just the money required to secure the ground to air communication link is extremely expensive. There will be a requirement to hire an entire, large staff of anti-hacking experts to counter the inevitable terrorist group, or even bored teenagers, who would love nothing better than to crack the code and takeover airliners filled with passengers.

Most of the issues you have one pilot aircraft are compounded when you remove all pilots from the aircraft.

On top of that the public is far away from accepting such a notion.

 

[ackattacker]

DALPA just sat idly as RA and Lee Moak signed an agreement that lowered the pay at DAL Regionals - In exchange for an interview. Regional pay is going down.

How do you reconcile that fact, with your fantasy.

At the moment the loss of 50 seaters is providing some breathing room. The regionals are therefore in a mad rush to lock in low-paying long-term contracts before market forces catch up and prevent them from doing so.

 

[krewmeel]

Not going to happen in our lifetime. NASA has been conducting studies regarding 1 pilot aircraft and they are finding logistical/human factors issues are very significant. Just the money required to secure the ground to air communication link is extremely expensive. There will be a requirement to hire an entire, large staff of anti-hacking experts to counter the inevitable terrorist group, or even bored teenagers, who would love nothing better than to crack the code and takeover airliners filled with passengers.

Most of the issues you have one pilot aircraft are compounded when you remove all pilots from the aircraft.

On top of that the public is far away from accepting such a notion.

Like I said the public is not going to accept this NOW, but they will in the future. Your iPhone is 1 billion times more powerful than the computer that was used in the 1969 moon landing. In 20 years, computers will be more than 1 billion times more powerful than they are now (google quantum computing). This will easily enable pilotless aircraft.

 

[bizicmo]

Like I said the public is not going to accept this NOW, but they will in the future. Your iPhone is 1 billion times more powerful than the computer that was used in the 1969 moon landing. In 20 years, computers will be more than 1 billion times more powerful than they are now (google quantum computing). This will easily enable pilotless aircraft.

So your saying computer will be able to crack into "secure systems" faster.

 

[krewmeel]

So your saying computer will be able to crack into "secure systems" faster.

Good point...maybe hackers will indirectly save our profession.

 

[atpcliff]

That is one of the main problems with UAVs for pax service...datalink security. They had at least one UAV crash just because of a loss of datalink..no foul play involved.

Another is aircraft avoidance...and there are more problems.

 

[krewmeel]

We shall see. I enjoy my cushy airline job and I would like it to continue with improved pay and retirement. It's obvious, however, that technology is accelerating rapidly.... for better or worse. Almost every profession is affected, even non-technical ons. Alot of these short term concerns that we complain about on this site may be irrelevant due to obsolescence. I still think this profession has about 20 years left in its present form.

 

[jonjuan]

We shall see. I enjoy my cushy airline job and I would like it to continue with improved pay and retirement. It's obvious, however, that technology is accelerating rapidly.... for better or worse. Almost every profession is affected, even non-technical ons. Alot of these short term concerns that we complain about on this site may be irrelevant due to obsolescence. I still think this profession has about 20 years left in its present form.

Good for you. Now move along.

 

[PBRstreetgang]

Like I said the public is not going to accept this NOW, but they will in the future. Your iPhone is 1 billion times more powerful than the computer that was used in the 1969 moon landing. In 20 years, computers will be more than 1 billion times more powerful than they are now (google quantum computing). This will easily enable pilotless aircraft.

Wrong,
Look at technology innovations, all the rapid advances come at the beginning, as the process matures, improvements are more incremental, and increasingly more expensive to achieve.
In short you are wrong on so many levels, it's amazing that you can use a keyboard.