Pilot Shortage affecting the Majors

[livin'thesim]

The new flight and duty rule will probably hurt regionals much more than they will the majors, because regional pilots generally fly more legs (which will reduce the duty day), even though regional pilots typically had longer duty days.

Also, early reports shorten the duty day as well, so once again regional airlines will be affected to a greater degree.

The regional model relies on pilots working long hours for crappy pay with fewer days off. This new rule has the potential to make some regionals unprofitable.

Anything that gives regional airline management hassles is fine with me. Nothing but a bunch of scum, in most cases.

 

[livin'thesim]

Major airlines want to control who they hire, which is their right.

No doubt. That said, I think that outsourcing the brand name was a serious mistake on the part of mainline pilots of days gone by.

You want to codeshare? Fine, only for international operations (like NWA/KLM) or something. You want lift to some small burg with a 1900? Tough crap. Either buy some 1900s and have mainline pilots fly them, or let some independent-brand regional fly them (like GP Express or Lakes).

But no piggy backing of regional craft on the brand name of the legacy.

Mainline pilot arrogance toward regional pilots has been the undoing of much of the gains.

 

[livin'thesim]

You do know how that will affect the book rates on narrow-body aircraft, don't you? Be careful what you ask for...

50% of the fleet is at substandard wages and you expect management to generously open their wallets? Costs will not be allowed to spiral a la 1980. Management will come out with their "pie is only so big" talk and "split it however you like" (in other words Fight Club).

If it meant that there would never be another regional boom that damages the legacy career, it would be worth discussing, at least.

But even if we had one big 'ol merge, a few years later, management would be talking about this new innovative idea of outsourcing lift to one of those "new regional airlines".

 

[THEPRFCT10]

SWA widow was open for what, two days? They had over 5000 qualified applicants.

It was actually open for 14 days.

 

[HowardBorden]

Major airlines want to control who they hire, which is their right.

Unfortunately, they are not controlling who they hire other than choosing the lowest bidder for outsourced flying. They are hiring thousands with no true control over the end product. Instead of being in charge of the product that is produced, the outsourced labor is shaping and forming the public perception every day on thousands of flights. The flying public purchases a ticket from a mainline source with a mainline flight number that is flown in an aircraft painted in mainline colors. All experiences positive or negative are attributed to the mainline carrier. Whether you like it or not, that outsourced labor was in fact hired.

 

[densoo]

Unfortunately, they are not controlling who they hire other than choosing the lowest bidder for outsourced flying. They are hiring thousands with no true control over the end product. Instead of being in charge of the product that is produced, the outsourced labor is shaping and forming the public perception every day on thousands of flights. The flying public purchases a ticket from a mainline source with a mainline flight number that is flown in an aircraft painted in mainline colors. All experiences positive or negative are attributed to the mainline carrier. Whether you like it or not, that outsourced labor was in fact hired.

Nicely put! Absolutely quotable whenever the subject comes up.

 

[Bringupthebird]

Bringing all branded flying under one roof ensures that company will be successful. With that, then comes pay. You got to have a job before you can worry about what it pays. Once everything is under one roof, then you parlay the pay.

Hello, PanAm? 100K to fly an ATR42?

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Hello, PanAm? 100K to fly an ATR42?

Why not? If Vietnam airlines can pay it....!

 

[Tripower455]

Hello, PanAm? 100K to fly an ATR42?

Not sure what you're implying, but Pan Am never paid anywhere near $100K to fly an ATR.

By having the PAE guys on the PA MSL, it prevented scope as well as attrition issues.

 

[Tweaker]

There are far fewer pilots total at all the Regionals than there are age 65 retirements coming. That is with zero growth at the majors. Couple that with not all regional pilots are going to leave their jobs and the fact that there are very few people getting into the job behind the regional guys who are leaving that creates a large shortage at the regional level and eventually at the major level. Why is this hard to understand?

GOOD! cat.jpg

 

[Tweaker]

The new flight and duty rule will probably hurt regionals much more than they will the majors, because regional pilots generally fly more legs (which will reduce the duty day), even though regional pilots typically had longer duty days.

Also, early reports shorten the duty day as well, so once again regional airlines will be affected to a greater degree.

The regional model relies on pilots working long hours for crappy pay with fewer days off. This new rule has the potential to make some regionals unprofitable.

Anything that gives regional airline management hassles is fine with me. Nothing but a bunch of scum, in most cases.

24 carat gold post

 

[FLYLOW22]

Just talked to a regional pilot. A friend of his is a MlEC officer at a very large US carrier.

The MEC guy was talking to his airline's CEO. He asked what was the #1 problem that the CEO had to deal with at their airline. The CEO said the upcoming pilot shortage. The CEO did not see how they could realistically avoid parking mainline aircraft due to a shortage of pilots to fly those aircraft.

This has been the goal for decades.

1) Drive labor costs down through successive pattern bargaining. CHECK

2) Consolidate the industry through mergers and acquisitions. CHECK

3) Farm out International loads (Emirates jumbo order for one). Coming...

4) Replace traditional "mainline" domestic flying with lower cost labor units flying 100-120 seat frames (CRJ1000 ex.). Coming...


It may take another 20 years... but it's coming.

 

[FLYLOW22]

SWA widow was open for what, two days? They had over 5000 qualified applicants.

Only 5,000? That's way down.

 

[livin'thesim]

The real issue is that lots of people want to get into a purse-slapping contest over the definition of "shortage".

The supply of qualified pilots is decreasing, that is certain. The real question is whether pilot positions will remain static or decrease as well. Another huge oil spike could create a large pilot surplus.

 

[atpcliff]

Yes there is, it is called scope and it is imposed by unions to ensure that those to have continue to have by ensuring those who do not have continue to not have. If the unions had said to the management, sure bring on the little airplanes, pay them crap, but give them a seniority number we would not have this problem.

And at least one of the big 3 CEOs is also working on this...a "B" scale with no regional pilots...everyone at mainline.

 

[General Lee]

This has been the goal for decades.

1) Drive labor costs down through successive pattern bargaining. CHECK

2) Consolidate the industry through mergers and acquisitions. CHECK

3) Farm out International loads (Emirates jumbo order for one). Coming...

4) Replace traditional "mainline" domestic flying with lower cost labor units flying 100-120 seat frames (CRJ1000 ex.). Coming...


It may take another 20 years... but it's coming.

Wrong. The Big 3 US carriers are making huge profits, and pilot scope clauses limit INTL "Farm out" of flying. That could only be changed in BK, and thanks to Consolidatiion, the big 3 will only get stronger. The big Alliances will squash the need for Worldwide mergers. Sorry, but it's all thanks to pilot scope clauses getting stronger. DL's scope got stronger. UAL got rid of the Aer Lingus IAD-MAD flying. Even Joint Ventures have to have divided flying between carriers. Again, unlikely.


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

And about that time (2008)they kicked the can down the curb to Age 65.....

No more relief....

Like Ray Liotta said in Goodfellas...... So you had a fire? F U pay ME!! Business tough? F U Pay ME!

Bottom line.....time to get what we are owed.

You get what YOU are owed??

Why do you think you deserve anything for selling out half your domestic routes?

Some balls there

Time for those slugging it out in your whipsaw market to get what they're owed- you don't deserve sh/t

 

[General Lee]

You get what YOU are owed??

Why do you think you deserve anything for selling out half your domestic routes?

Some balls there

Ummmm, thanks to your 717s and parking 215 50 seaters, it's coming back..... And, even SWA pulls out of routes that a 737 can't do profitably. Some CRJs are needed to fly to places like Valdosta and Dothan. You know that!


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[waveflyer]

Ummmm, thanks to your 717s and parking 215 50 seaters, it's coming back..... And, even SWA pulls out of routes that a 737 can't do profitably. Some CRJs are needed to fly to places like Valdosta and Dothan. You know that!


Bye Bye---General Lee

Fly them yourself then. Don't disenfranchise and create a subclass of pilots whipsawed to fly big jets at sub market wages to stay in the career while siphoning off profits for yourself-
Again- you don't deserve any fupm- the regional pilots do

 

[BILL LUMBERG]

"Maybe we can exploit more Rich Kids like Wavey who will buy their training!"
-Herb Kelleher-