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SWA Hiring...
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Ten years is a long time and, well, yes I think eventually. Keep in mind however that upgrade times for those joining at the bottom will be very long. It would be advantageous to try the airlines with high retirements first. If SWA is your goal then be patient and hopefully things will improve. It's a good place if you don't mind the right seat for a good long while.
The school house is claiming 200-400 next year but many of us doubt that high a number.
The school house is claiming 200-400 next year but many of us doubt that high a number.
Better yet, pick a fast growing, profitable airline.
Like Southwest was fifteen years ago.
CesnaCaptn
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Like Spirit? You could double down with a Las Vegas base. Who's ready to gamble?
scoreboardII
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GhettoBeechjet
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The hiring rumor came out of the GO with the intention of creating the illusion of growth to help grease the skids to get the contract done. As soon as the ink is dry they will announce that we need to "change course" and "aggressively optimize" and "right size the airline" in order to "remain competitive". Odds are much higher that we furlough than hire unless we buy another airline in which case they will hold off on the furloughs until after the government approves the next merger.
canyonblue
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And don't forget it's 16 days off in the month's with 31 days. :beer:
Some guys will always take the safe road and pick Pan Am, Braniff,
Eastern, TWA over a gamble on a fast-growing, profitable airline like
Southwest.
I think It's more of a gamble to bet on airlines, that have no growth or
are shrinking, based on retirement numbers.
Regionals have taken a huge share of mainline flying, they may take more.
General Lee
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I think there is a great possibility that SWA may hire tons of pilots in the next few years as the bottom 1/3 of their list starts weighing current options and considering the 3 legacy airlines as they themselves start to hire TONS of pilots due to huge retirement numbers. The bottom 1/3 probably sees lack of upgrades for a decade or more, stagnation, wages coming up at the legacies, fewer Lubbock and Midland layovers, if any, at the Legacies, and actual variety in trip types/routes/and planes. Some people don't care about flying different sized planes to different cities domestically or AROUND THE WORLD, primarily because they have "seen that already in the C-130 back in the 80's." They are a clear minority, though. So, if you really want to fly for SWA, maybe you will get your shot in the next few years, and if places like Lubbock and Islip interest you, then that is the place to go! Good luck!
Bye Bye--General Lee
Bye Bye--General Lee
Dash Power
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CaptAntoineMack
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General Lee
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Oh come on! Don't get mad. Look, many of your bottom seniority guys may look at the 3 legacies hiring and decide movement at any one of the 3 biggies may lead to a better QOL. Is that SOOOOOO WRONG? And, what a waste of life? Really? Are you taking this THAT seriously? You really need to relax a bit.
Bye Bye---General Lee
General Lee
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Wow. Ouch. Come on, you two really need to chillax a bit and not take this too seriously. But, what I did state was true. There could be some quick advancement opportunities at all 3 legacies when each retire 5,000 pilots in 10 years. I don't think your airline can say the same, there just aren't that many retirements scheduled over there. Word to your mutha.
Bye Bye---General Lee
Dash Power
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BentOver
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So the GL is basically saying a SWA FO making ....$140K+.... with lots of days off and really fun crews, are going to leave to work at places like DL, UA, AA where the pilot groups have been miserable and militant for years. FLy with 60 yr old grandmas' and go to the bottom of the seniority list to start at $40-50K and not see $140K for years... Doubtful.. Unlike the General, many people have families to feed and bills to pay, which SWA seems to provide for rather easily
There's more to life than destinations and type of a/c....
There's more to life than destinations and type of a/c....
Bake
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General Lee is correct. The Legacy carriers are retiring large amounts of pilots in the next few years. SWA is not. What is wrong with them leaving SWA and going over there??? Nothing is my answer.
right up to the point that they furlough again. It will happen. We are in an "up " cycle where they are going to start hiring like gangbusters. fog a mirror and your in. Then economy ********************s and guess what, you're on the street. Much like the "peak oil" guys. They will be back.
right up to the point that they furlough again. It will happen. We are in an "up " cycle where they are going to start hiring like gangbusters. fog a mirror and your in. Then economy ********************s and guess what, you're on the street. Much like the "peak oil" guys. They will be back.
General Lee
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I don't know, a lot? Thanks to the AT merger and the relative age of that collective group, unless there is huge growth, stagnation may set in. Since you will have only one plane type eventually (737----until you get 787s and A350s??), when one Captain retires, one FO moves up, and then one newhire comes on board. That really isn't a lot of movement, especially compared to the legacies where one top guy leaves and 9 people move up the chain. That is what makes MORE money for legacy pilots, each upward movement pays MORE.
So, when all 3 hire at once, I predict a lot of your guys will be looking at the possibilities, and since wages are going up and better contracts exist, they may jump ship in droves. Stability thanks to consolidation also helps a lot. Almost TOO BIG TO FAIL.....
Bye Bye---General Lee
General Lee
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First of all, legacy pay rates are rising. Newhires in 2015 at DL will start at $71 per hour, and that is the last year of a 3 year contract that probably will go higher. When hiring becomes tighter due to fewer pilots out there, competition for qualified pilots will increase, and the legacies know that.
After 1st year pay is over and retirements continue, the upward movement might be CRAZY. Remember, the bigger the plane, the more it pays at a legacy. Going from 717 FO the first year to 767ER FO the next (it could happen when retiring 500 in one year), could mean a significant raise. Second year on the 717 in 2015 will make $96 an hour (up from $71), and if you go to the 767ER, you go to $110 (2nd year by 2015). Also, with all that training going on (500 top guys leave, means each guy leaving causes 9 or so guys to move up, so 500 leaving means TONS of training) there could be high line values, or a lot of greenslips to cover flying. That means cash money..... You can stay as a 717 FO and get senior and pick up greenslips, or you can move up and be a line holder on the 767 and fly to Rio.
So Bent Over, I think you can see where this is going. Even first year pay at $71 is better than all the other legacies, and it might be higher than yours (APC says your current pay is $57 a trip first year, I don't know what it will be in 2015, but $71 an hour aint bad....). Your pilots may be looking carefully at those numbers and the more important numbers---like 4,000 scheduled age 65 retirements betweeb 2020-2024, four of those years have over 800 leaving each year, in a row. That is amazing.
Bye Bye---General Lee
General Lee
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Ummmm, you guys might be the ones strolling into BK, you never know. The legacies do have some debt to take care of, and as Red likes to point out, Pension obligations. But, the legacies also have tremendous revenue generating potential, espcially due to fees. Delta's goal was to bring the debt down to $10 billion by the end of this year, down from $18 billion 3 or 4 years ago. That is a great feet in itself. Well, DL just announced it was going for $7 billion instead as a goal, an additional $3 billion. That is called amazing. There is also a $1 billion stock buy back and a dividend that is a first in awhile (yes, you guys also give dividends). That is called a turn around. Yes, I think the pilot contract could have been a bit better in hindsight, but as we always say "we'll getum next time!" We still got a great raise for a 3 year contract. The pension obligations are expensive too, but like a mortgage payment, you just have to keep plugging away, and DL actually made a larger payment last quarter than was needed. They understand the obligation, and even getting the debt down to manageable levels, the interest payments per year drop $500 million, which can inturn help fund the pensions. Amazing.
Again, the difference these days is FEES. Back during the BKs of the last decade, FEES were not significant. Now, they are almost commonplace, even at your subsidiary Airtran, which SWA benefits.... That plus consolidation has really changed the game, making legacies stronger. Forward thinking, like buying a refinery, brings a twist that people are watching, with many analysts loving the idea of controlling your costs of your biggest expense (gas). Then there are "J.R. Ewing" wannabees like Red that think it was crazy. We'll see eventually, but at least management is making proactive stabs at their highest cost, and taking out the middleman.
So, don't think cycles will always come back the same way. A lot has changed in this up cycle (fees and consolidation), and it may soften the next down cycle for all of us. Even during this last recession over the last couple years, the Legacies have all made profits. That should say something right there. And, taking airlines to BK to extract costs and then expecting an Exit Bonus upon leaving BK just may not ever happen again. Look at Horton at AA, and how the BK judge and the DOJ have stated NO to the big bonus. All airline management teams have taken notice. Bonuses come from profit sharing, not BKs.
Bye Bye----General Lee
scoreboardII
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GL, SWA bankruptcy? Just imagine for a second we are in the real world, stay with me here, do you really think SWA would continue into bankruptcy without hitting every revenue opportunity like charge for bags and such, or do you think they, as represented in your world, say "nope, not going to charge, we tried and failed, so off to bankruptcy" Really?
I was starting to wonder what was wrong with you, Ghetto-- you hadn't been yelling about our "impending furloughs" in a while. I thought you were sick or something. Thank God you're okay, and back to your usual droning, pessimistic stupidity.
You DO realize that nobody at Southwest, nobody on this stupid anonymous board, for that matter, believes that, right? Even General Lee can't bring himself to pretend he thinks that. Yet you persist, even after your "facts" have been disproven. You grasp at straws, ... anything, ... no matter how absurd, to try to substantiate your delusion. It's like you want it to be true for some reason.
You know, it used to alternatingly amuse and irk me, listening to your ridiculous rationalizations that you use to justify your idiotic doom and gloom rantings. After thinking about it for a while, though, now I just feel sorry for you. Your life must really suck, what, being you and all. You have to be one of the most miserable, pessimistic men on the planet.
Bubba
General Lee
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So, there is NO way your airline could ever go BK? Ever? Alright, I just want to make sure you believe that 100%, because the former Pan Am, Eastern, and TWA guys probably thought the same way back when. I thought the same in the late 90s, but was proven wrong. Just try not to get too cocky here. I know it's tough for some of you Corndogs, but things happen. Simmer down a bit.
Bye Bye---General Lee
General Lee
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Bubba,
Sounds like ghetto is actually worried about his job. Maybe he is junior and he might be one of those guys who considers moving over to one of the big three legacies some day? Easy on him, and I think he may be an original Corndog and not a FAT pilot. Think how many of them may be thinking the same? You just never know....
Bye Bye---General Lee
I'm a late 07 hire at UAL (b756). I'll make about 140k this year. I'll also get an extra 16% thrown in to my B-fund at no cost to me...your numbers are a bit off.
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General Lee
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That's true, I think DL's is now 14% (12% DC plus 2% match on 401K). You don't have to put a dime down and you will get 14%, whereas SWA pilots have to put down money or they don't get a match, right? That 14% will only increase in future contracts, and LCC FOs will be looking at that too.
Bye Bye---General Lee
Fliteidol
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A good pal of mine, 7 year SWA FO went to recurrent a while back and said another guy in class had already put his notice in and was off to DL. Its plausible that if you are young and junior at SWA you may consider starting again elsewhere. The demographics do tend towards a long career in the right seat for newbies which is still a great job but some will roll the dice again!
No Grannies at SWA ? That's not what SWA Capt. told me.( over an open mic )
DAL just graduated 200 FA's ( Trust me, very Hot )
SWA has no military pilots ? ( Mil pilots are cool, they never went through all the BS )
Pay ? I have already made over 80K this year. ( 7 yr F/O )
On a side note- The biggest perk for me is the opportunity to fly different A/C throughout my career. I like some strange every seven yrs.
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