Regional airlines are doomed!

[Freebrd]

9-11 caused a huge disruption in profits, and then Gulf War II caused a huge oil spike that many legacies weren't ready for,

Of course it couldn't be DALPA didn't want to fly those small jets right Oys? :smash:

getting ready to hand some money back to the pilots when the contracts come due.
Godspeed! The OYSter

Oh yeah buddy, RA just gonna hand over those profits to the pilots! Rightttttttttttttttttt!

 

[dojetdriver]

Maybe you were in Highschool at the time

Nope, I was in the air on the way to LGA at the time.

but 9-11 caused a huge disruption in profits,

Really? No sh1t Sherlock?

and then Gulf War II caused a huge oil spike that many legacies weren't ready for, while Southwest was with their hedges. They don't have those hedges now, and they also don't do bag fees (except at Airtran they do for now), so they don't really enjoy those fees. Most legacies, besides AA, are very profitable now, and they are paying down debt and getting ready to hand some money back to the pilots when the contracts come due. Scope relaxation only can happen in distressed times, like AA is having now. Don't bet your future on possible scope relaxation via BKs. Consolidation makes that tougher to achieve.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

Sorry, but you need to go back and look at contract 2000 at UAL and contract 2001 at DAL. Scope was relaxed at both carriers. That's before "distressed times", before 9/11, and before the BK's.

You can't argue that scope has NEVER been relaxed unless under a company's financial duress. That's just not accurate or true. Anyway you try to spin/argue it is simply your own ignorance of the FACTS of what happened. Plain and simple.

 

[silver02ex]

How about making enough money to send that 6 year old to college? Shouldn't that count? I would get started as fast as possible if you haven't already. First year at a legacy may be less than a Captain at a Regional, but it sure does increase in a hurry after that. First year pay now at DL is $59 an hour, with 2nd year on the bus at $86, and third year at $101. We have a new contract coming due this year (rumors have it that RA wants a deal, and that means some sort of pay raise obviously with $1.2 billion profit the last couple years), and next year there should be hiring. Sticking it out a regional may give you better QOL now for a few more years, but with the way the Regional industry is going and the instability and high gas prices out there, I would take your "hit" now with QOL for a couple/few years so you can have more time with your early teenage son/daughter as a lineholder, making more money at a legacy. Hiring will happen sooner than later. Don't miss out.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

So I have to make it to the majors to send my kids to college or to make the big bucks? I'm under 30 years old and both of my kid's college funds are taken care of because of my rental properties. I have less than 10 years to go on my mortgage, and i'm not worried about the future of the regionals, since this is not my primary source of income. Just becuase someone wants to stay at the regionals doesn't mean they don't have enough money to retire or send their kids to college. Maybe these guys have a wife that makes 2x the amouth they do, we just don't know.

 

[ken]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...es-dwindle-as-delta-hub-ousts-turboprops.html

 

[trainer8]

How about making enough money to send that 6 year old to college? Shouldn't that count? I would get started as fast as possible if you haven't already. First year at a legacy may be less than a Captain at a Regional, but it sure does increase in a hurry after that. First year pay now at DL is $59 an hour, with 2nd year on the bus at $86, and third year at $101. We have a new contract coming due this year (rumors have it that RA wants a deal, and that means some sort of pay raise obviously with $1.2 billion profit the last couple years), and next year there should be hiring. Sticking it out a regional may give you better QOL now for a few more years, but with the way the Regional industry is going and the instability and high gas prices out there, I would take your "hit" now with QOL for a couple/few years so you can have more time with your early teenage son/daughter as a lineholder, making more money at a legacy. Hiring will happen sooner than later. Don't miss out.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

So, this is your formula: Career at a major = $$$$, commute, AIDS (Aviation Induced Divorce Syndrome), and son(s) or daughter(s) who grows up with you absent while you live the dream...

OR...

QOL at a Regional, reasonable pay, live at home, gets to coach little league, takes wife and daughter out for dates systematically.

The $$$$ is cool and so is the Company, but "a fool and his $$$$ are soon parted."

Statistically, which one do you think most choose, and statistically, what do you think the outcomes are?

I think you know...

 

[On Your Six]

haha! yeh RA wants a deal, no doubt about that except it's not one you'll like, a small pay raise in exchange for relaxation of scope. AA will pave the way w/ bigger jets for AE so the rest of the airlines will follow, just like sheep everytime one of them changes something (like paint jobs) the rest follow. But I sincerely hope you can AT LEAST hold onto present scope as I'm anxious to leave Rangoon for the big jets in the future! Godspeed! :laugh:

RA has never missed an amendable date for a contract, and he is proud of that supposedly. That doesn't mean he'll give away the farm, but there's a good chance it will get done. One thing everyone noticed on the conference call though was his apparent giddiness about dumping Saabs and more 50 seat RJs. Looks like he may feel the same way about those planes, way too inefficient. Btw, the 70/76 seaters have hit the limit, and it won't be increased, which is one reason you are in Vietnam. That's crazy. Do you miss Dayton, OH yet? Heck, it's probably a lot like Da Nang anyway. Cheers!


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[SnowBoardBum]

Both options sound like ******************** to me.....just saying.

 

[On Your Six]

So, this is your formula: Career at a major = $$$$, commute, AIDS (Aviation Induced Divorce Syndrome), and son(s) or daughter(s) who grows up with you absent while you live the dream...

OR...

QOL at a Regional, reasonable pay, live at home, gets to coach little league, takes wife and daughter out for dates systematically.

The $$$$ is cool and so is the Company, but "a fool and his $$$$ are soon parted."

Statistically, which one do you think most choose, and statistically, what do you think the outcomes are?

I think you know...

That's up to you, but don't complain if your airline shrinks and you miss a hiring wave that could get you to where you are now a couple years down the road. The stagnation of now and the past decade will soon catch up to massive retirements at most legacies. Getting on at the beginning of a wave could make all the difference in the World. But again, it's up to you. Your regionals though don't have great growth prospects.



Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[On Your Six]

So I have to make it to the majors to send my kids to college or to make the big bucks? I'm under 30 years old and both of my kid's college funds are taken care of because of my rental properties. I have less than 10 years to go on my mortgage, and i'm not worried about the future of the regionals, since this is not my primary source of income. Just becuase someone wants to stay at the regionals doesn't mean they don't have enough money to retire or send their kids to college. Maybe these guys have a wife that makes 2x the amouth they do, we just don't know.

Great, if you are a landlord and have many rentals, by all means stay there and become the next Donald Chump. If you're like the rest of us out there, then move up to mainline for better pay and benefits compared to the Regionals. It may take a couple years to make up the pay, but then it will be a lot better. And, it doesn't look like the Regionals will be getting any better anytime soon, thanks to new rest/fatigue rules, etc. Have fun out there Donald!


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[JettBoii]

Fubi...who do you fly for?

 

[On Your Six]

Oh yeah buddy, RA just gonna hand over those profits to the pilots! Rightttttttttttttttttt!

I just got a $2300 profit sharing check on the 14th. How'd you do?


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[Freebrd]

I just got a $2300 profit sharing check on the 14th. How'd you do?
Godspeed!The OYSter

why I got about 1/23rd of that from lovely Skywest

 

[On Your Six]

touching.....

Need a tissue? What time is it now in Hanoi? What day is it?

Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[silver02ex]

Need a tissue? What time is it now in Hanoi? What day is it?

Godspeed!


The OYSter

OYS, you need you give up. If the guy enjoys what he is doing then let him be. So he doesn't take your advice, you then go and bash what he's doing?

"Enjoy your time in Vietnam, blah blah blah." Get over it, I don't recall anyone asking for your advice, but you give it to them anyways. Let the regionals guys do what they want in life, even if it doesn't agree with you.

Oh also, no need to call me Donald. You want to start calling names because i'm secure with my finance, even as an RJ FO? So what, If I get a fixed in come, even when it doesn't come from aviation. Unlike you, I don't have to worry about what's going to happen with my company 10, 15,20 years from now. Even if there was another 9-11 I still don't have to worry.

 

[outerlimits]

This is something I've long since argued. Skywest Inc. has some big decisions to make over the next few years. The influx of cash from the mainline partners will not increase. So we're boxed in. Scope will absolutely not relax. I'd bet everything in my 401K, my savings, and investments on that- the ship has sailed. Nobody is going to relax scope to facilitate larger airframes at the regional level. Skywest will be forced to survive by "going it alone" as a stand alone carrier. The question is when, and how, that this will happen. The typical feeder style regional business model a dead and dying one. The regional airline industry WILL be forced to change.

You will end up a very poor man.