Another Merger, Another Bankruptcy whens it gonna end!

[MooneyPilot]

NW-DL, SW-AT, AMR Bankruptcy now DL and AMR?
Things start to look get and then in a blink of an eye change for the worse. Everything is slowing down hiring and movement to a legacy, should I start filling out the Emirates app????

 

[Fubijaakr]

Short answer...yes.

 

[On Your Six]

There will probably be 3 mega US carriers taking on the other World Carriers like Emirates and SQ. Emirates will have 90 A380s and 50 more new 777s soon, and throw in Qatari and then the BA/IB connection in Europe, along with Lufthansa and AF/KLM. There is also a case for Alliance Airlines too, like Skyteam and Star Alliance. It's all about going after the corporate contracts and high paying customers. But, that doesn't really mean the domestic fight will be neglected. More and more US domestic passengers fly every year, and high oil makes it too expensive to drive across the country or even half way. It's gonna get REAL interesting soon.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[johnsonrod]

I predict we will have just 2 mega airlines in 10 years:

Jetunicaldeltwest

and

Allegiant

 

[On Your Six]

I predict we will have just 2 mega airlines in 10 years:

Jetunicaldeltwest

and

Allegiant

I totally disagree. 3 mega carriers. Delwestka, Fronited Airways, and SkyVirgacle.


Godspeed!


The OYSter

 

[MooneyPilot]

How do you figure out where to get so that your in the best shape? A few years in the Golden Birdcage ( Emirates) might cost you a nice ride at a Major here.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

How do you figure out where to get so that your in the best shape? A few years in the Golden Birdcage ( Emirates) might cost you a nice ride at a Major here.

As to why you came to the conclusion that having some international, heavy experience will be a detriment when applying for a job here escapes me.

 

[spitfire1500]

How do you figure out where to get so that your in the best shape? A few years in the Golden Birdcage ( Emirates) might cost you a nice ride at a Major here.

There are no nice rides at "Majors" here.....What is a major now? Financially Mesa qualifies as a major... or at least they did.... A legacy?? Whats left United, Delta and USAir....

 

[Whataburger]

One quarter of profits and it's time to buy an airline?

 

[Lear70]

As to why you came to the conclusion that having some international, heavy experience will be a detriment when applying for a job here escapes me.

What he said.

 

[Dan Roman]

As to why you came to the conclusion that having some international, heavy experience will be a detriment when applying for a job here escapes me.

Got that right, not to mention the great experience of living abroad for a few years (if one is so inclined)

 

[Snapshot]

How about that. Right back to pre-deregulation. Except nobody makes any money, countless careers destroyed and the passengers are all miserable. Quite a price to pay so that poor people don't have to ride the bus anymore.

 

[Lear70]

How about that. Right back to pre-deregulation. Except nobody makes any money, countless careers destroyed and the passengers are all miserable. Quite a price to pay so that poor people don't have to ride the bus anymore.

That's exactly right... What a mess the government made of this once-great career. :/

 

[Abernathy]

One quarter of profits and it's time to buy an airline?

Heard they're also discussing a DL/SWA merger. You'll be wearing those classy hats, Navy uniforms, and asking for windchecks in no time!

 

[Abernathy]

That's exactly right... What a mess the government made of this once-great career. :/

As much as we all (or a lot of us) think this industry needs to go back to being regulated, a lot of the people who agree are the same ones who claim the government can't run anything.

 

[kwick]

Heard they're also discussing a DL/SWA merger. You'll be wearing those classy hats, Navy uniforms, and asking for windchecks in no time!

At the bottom of the list! What goes around, comes around!

 

[Whataburger]

Heard they're also discussing a DL/SWA merger. You'll be wearing those classy hats, Navy uniforms, and asking for windchecks in no time!

Works for me!

Just read this: http://www.cleaningbrass.org/

Windcheck please!!

 

[SnowBoardBum]

That's exactly right... What a mess the government made of this once-great career. :/

You can't be serious....you're blaming the government for destroying what you consider a once great career.....wow.

 

[Fubijaakr]

You can't be serious....you're blaming the government for destroying what you consider a once great career.....wow.

I guess he's saying deregulation is the same as the government. Somehow, that seems backward to me. Its the REMOVAL of government that screwed things up.

 

[waveflyer]

Guess we can blame Alaska for that one....

I guess he's saying deregulation is the same as the government. Somehow, that seems backward to me. Its the REMOVAL of government that screwed things up.

http://www.alaskaair.com/content/about-us/history/history-by-decade.aspx

" Bruce Kennedy, an integral part of Cosgrave’s team, became CEO in ‘79, the same year U.S. skies were deregulated. Alaska was one of only three carriers that pushed for deregulation, knowing significant growth would be impossible without it. At the time, the airline served 10 cities in Alaska and one - Seattle - in the lower 48. Its fleet numbered 10."

 

[8sugarsugar]

"Yes, the legacies will have massive retirements, but won't hire to replace them. In 10 years time, you will see the legacies only flying widebody and all the narrow body flying being outsourced to the Skywests and pinnacles. Sure, there will be tons of hiring at those levels, but at low wages. RyanAir is already paying its 737-800 FO's about $27,000/year and mngt in USA is foaming at the mouth to declare bnkrupt and break the contracts.

after the AMR bankruptcy, you will see the beginning of the end. Contracts will get broken and Eagle will be flying A-320s in a couple years.

So Majors only flying wide body int'l? Qantas did the exact same thing, outsourced the narrow body, but now the Emirates' of the world are destroying Qantas. So damn...a canary in the coal mine for Major's?

So what do you do? What about UPS and FedEx? They have a lot of retirements too, but in 20 years you'll see pilotless cargo planes."

quote from "http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=145444"

 

[Varmint]

So Majors only flying wide body int'l? Qantas did the exact same thing, outsourced the narrow body, but now the Emirates' of the world are destroying Qantas. So damn...a canary in the coal mine for Major's?

So what do you do? What about UPS and FedEx? They have a lot of retirements too, but in 20 years you'll see pilotless cargo planes."

quote from "http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=145444"

I beg to differ on the Emirates' of the world destroying Qantas. Qantas destroyed itself because of shoddy management, possibly shoddy service onboard, bad timings of flights, or work stoppages that inconvenienced their customers to the extent that customers didn't trust the reliability of the airline anymore.

Emirates, Qatar, Etihad all offer above US average pay packages, better retirement savings, and a better product to the customer. All without the threat of a work stoppage. If you compare costs of tickets online you will see that most of the middle eastern carriers actually charge more for their tickets than their western counterparts. If you don't like the pay and working conditions over here you vote with your feet and take a hike. The same mentality should hold true at the unionized airlines in the US paying substandard wages to their employees. People still take jobs at those carriers....whose fault is that....the airlines? Those same low paying carriers in the US are the ones taking passengers away from the well paying airlines by charging LESS for their tickets, not more.

 

[Lear70]

No. I'm saying deregulation destroyed the career expectations of just about every employee group in the airline industry to allow for the general public to fly as fares naturally decreased with increasing competition.

The unexpected byproduct is that to compete, an airline will price a route at a loss to protect market share, to the point they are unprofitable, file bankrupty, void contracts, and start all over again.

I guarantee you that this scenario wasn't planned when deregulation was passed.

 

[SIG600]

I've yet to see anyone talk about the fact that the int'l carriers everyone is comparing US carriers too; are all backed by their gov'ts. Singapore, Qatari, Emirates, etc. Maybe if we just roll everyone up into one, and have uncle sam cover the costs.

 

[igneousy2]

No. I'm saying deregulation destroyed the career expectations of just about every employee group in the airline industry to allow for the general public to fly as fares naturally decreased with increasing competition.

The unexpected byproduct is that to compete, an airline will price a route at a loss to protect market share, to the point they are unprofitable, file bankrupty, void contracts, and start all over again.

I guarantee you that this scenario wasn't planned when deregulation was passed.

The airline industry is far larger now than it ever was or would have been under regulation. A large amount of jobs would not exist were it not for deregulation.

Besides, this argument is a waste of time...although in your view it has hurt the careers of pilots (and it did IF you happen to be one of the few to get the very few jobs out there) it has been highly successfully for the economy overall.

 

[Lear70]

Successful for the economy? Debatable, once the costs of multiple trips into bankruptcy court has been included.

Successful for the average consumer through severely depressed ticket prices? Certainly. The average ticket price is down nearly 60% compared to pre-deregulation prices, adjusted for inflation.

The average traveler may rejoice. I shall not, until incomes are restored back to 1960's -era income levels, adjusted for inflation.

YMMV

 

[redflyer65]

To Lear's point, I'd say most domestic airfares have stayed flat for how many years now?

The public doesn't really know what inflation is when talking about airline tickets. They still expect to pay 250-300 for transcon, and not a penny more.

 

[Fly-By-Cable]

Successful for the economy? Debatable, once the costs of multiple trips into bankruptcy court has been included.

Successful for the average consumer through severely depressed ticket prices? Certainly. The average ticket price is down nearly 60% compared to pre-deregulation prices, adjusted for inflation.

The average traveler may rejoice. I shall not, until incomes are restored back to 1960's -era income levels, adjusted for inflation.

YMMV

Ill add that the reason for such high payrates in the 60s was due to the pilot pay formula established in arbitration back in the 40s. As aircraft productivity went up, so did the pilots pay rate. When larger faster jets were introduced, naturally the pay sky rocketed.

 

[Lear70]

That explains the history, but doesn't address the reality that pilot pay has not kept pace with inflation, and I fully expect it to.

I love to fly, but I could have been an attorney or doctor and still done that on the side. I expected to be properly-compensated for it when I made the decision to become a professional pilot, according to what the pay scales were even in the 80's, and I still expect that.

If people can't understand pay raises never being LESS than inflation-adjusted wages of what they made in years past adjust for the value of the dollar, then maybe they deserve what they get. I don't need to strangle the golden goose, but getting back to where pilots were before their companies' 1113(c) filings and continuing to adjust yearly for inflation should not be thought of as an unreasonable goal.

 

[HalinTexas]

That explains the history, but doesn't address the reality that pilot pay has not kept pace with inflation, and I fully expect it to.

I love to fly, but I could have been an attorney or doctor and still done that on the side. I expected to be properly-compensated for it when I made the decision to become a professional pilot, according to what the pay scales were even in the 80's, and I still expect that.

If people can't understand pay raises never being LESS than inflation-adjusted wages of what they made in years past adjust for the value of the dollar, then maybe they deserve what they get. I don't need to strangle the golden goose, but getting back to where pilots were before their companies' 1113(c) filings and continuing to adjust yearly for inflation should not be thought of as an unreasonable goal.

Unless the market won't bear it. Doesn't matter what you think you're worth. If there isn't someone out there to pay it, you won't make it. Scarcity vs. intrinsic value, i.e. the value of something decreases if everyone has it, not matter how much that "something" costs to produce.

This is what those OWS students are finding out. Bless their hearts. Five years ago, their degree was probably worth something. Now it's not, because no one is hiring. Five years from now, it might again, be worth something. Kodak, real estate agents and computer chips are related, yet seemingly incongruous examples.