Whats with all of the sudden trouble?

[altimaklr]

Regional jets have become unprofitable due to fuel, and at the same time the cost savings on crew and overhead versus mainline has become much more narrow... Thanks to higher wages and work rules at the regionals and lower pay at the majors. Basically we are no longer needed.

 

[Scapegoat]

Some regionals are unprofitble to themselves but not to the major airlines that uses their services. I see this new mantra of the unprofitable 50 seat jets turning into more future flying for the majors. This will not happen. There are bigger and better margins to be made from 70 and 90 seats jets at regional pay. There is still a big difference in labor costs between majors and regionals.
In the future, look for more planes to be doing longer routes. That includes 757's as well as 50 seat RJ's. Look for things to stay just about the same except for a few failures at the regional level. More companies like Allegiant, Spirit, VA and Hawaiian doing flights that UAL, AA, DAL and USA have abandon. Radical change is not in the forecast. IMO only. Waiting for the industry to prove me wrong. Hasn't happened yet.
Happy Holidays everyone. And always look out for number 1, (you)!

 

[Redtailer]

How do we go from constant hiring/cant find enough pilots, etc.... to within 2 months, several regionals furloughing, hiring stopped and bankrupt regionals possibly on the horizon?

All of this with NO major increase in oil...no MAJOR worldly events, and most of us still working with post 9/11 contracts?

WTF is going on?!

Regional pilots that haven't been around too long stick out like a sore thumb.

You have never heard the old saying that airlines hire until they furlough? It's a very true statement that reaches back decades. Different reasons through the years, but the process remains the same.

If you are in the bottom 10% of your airlines' seniority list never, never, NEVER get comfortable there as overnight you may be out of a job. If you are higher up then at least you may have some warning. It doesn't matter if you are regional, mainline, cargo or anything else.

It's just the nature of the beast. Welcome to the airline business!

 

[CX880]

How do we go from constant hiring/cant find enough pilots, etc.... to within 2 months, several regionals furloughing, hiring stopped and bankrupt regionals possibly on the horizon?

All of this with NO major increase in oil...no MAJOR worldly events, and most of us still working with post 9/11 contracts?

WTF is going on?!

They don't need you. You are worthless. Get the time and move on.

 

[altimaklr]

Skywest has a cost-per-seat-mile of about 9.1 cents
Delta is only 7.8

That is excluding fuel, which makes regional flights even more expensive per seat mile

Regional airlines have lost most of their usefulness now.

 

[buxflyr]

Regional pilots that haven't been around too long stick out like a sore thumb.

You have never heard the old saying that airlines hire until they furlough? It's a very true statement that reaches back decades. Different reasons through the years, but the process remains the same.

If you are in the bottom 10% of your airlines' seniority list never, never, NEVER get comfortable there as overnight you may be out of a job. If you are higher up then at least you may have some warning. It doesn't matter if you are regional, mainline, cargo or anything else.

It's just the nature of the beast. Welcome to the airline business!

That has nothing to do with the possible bankruptcies on the horizon. I am well aware of why Warren Buffett has advised to never invest in the airlines. I am also well aware of the subpar management that is at many airlines. Thing is.. are you aware that the only way to fix this is with regulation?

 

[On Your Six]

Skywest has a cost-per-seat-mile of about 9.1 cents
Delta is only 7.8

That is excluding fuel, which makes regional flights even more expensive per seat mile

Regional airlines have lost most of their usefulness now.

I would say atleast 50 seaters have, and some smaller props like the Saab. If the EAS money can't cover the costs, then the SAABs don't work. With oil over $90 a barrel, most 50 seaters don't work, unless you can put them in an airport like LGA that can charge high enough fares that businessmen will fly them regardless. That is the only reason some are going there to fly to GSP and GSO type cities. If those loads grow, they too will be gone and replaced with mainline planes like A319s.

Regional airlines haven't lost their usefulness, but I bet most of their CEOs are sweating it, big time. And unless you are in BK, there is little chance of any mainline pilot group giving away anymore scope. Everyone can see what has happened.


Godspeed!

The OYSter

 

[dojetdriver]

Skywest has a cost-per-seat-mile of about 9.1 cents
Delta is only 7.8

That is excluding fuel, which makes regional flights even more expensive per seat mile

Regional airlines have lost most of their usefulness now.

The sad part is, some of the UAX carriers had CASM costs of 12-14 cents before the UAL BK.

 

[CaribPilot]

Im outta here as soon as i get the chance. Surejet is a sinking ship.

 

[JustaNumber]

That has nothing to do with the possible bankruptcies on the horizon. I am well aware of why Warren Buffett has advised to never invest in the airlines. I am also well aware of the subpar management that is at many airlines. Thing is.. are you aware that the only way to fix this is with regulation?

While that sounds at first glance like it would be a good solution, I strongly suggest you read the book Hard Landings, which details the rise of the airline industry along with the rise (and fall) of government regulation. The era of big regulation was riddled with some of the most egregious corruption and ineptitude you could imagine. The industry as a result was a fraction of the size it is today, which meant that only the very wealthy could afford to fly (so it was bad for the country), and most people who dreamed of becoming pilots would never get the opportunity (which meant it was bad for your career prospects). Sure a few lucky guys got to play like royalty, but trust me, you wouldn't want to play those odds today.

Actually, the solution is to remove the chapter 11 bankruptcy process altogether. Don't allow the subpar managements of the industry to breed. Only the best-run companies (like Southwest) would survive, and you would actually want to work for them, and there would be more positions available there. So LESS regulation, not more fixes this.