Whats with all of the sudden trouble?

[buxflyr]

How do we go from constant hiring/cant find enough pilots, etc.... to within 2 months, several regionals furloughing, hiring stopped and bankrupt regionals possibly on the horizon?

All of this with NO major increase in oil...no MAJOR worldly events, and most of us still working with post 9/11 contracts?

WTF is going on?!

 

[Flyguy1226]

Uh... It's called the airline industry. :erm:

 

[Airscrew]

Delta

 

[RJLoser]

The airlines want to cut costs right before business gets good and they need a bunch of pilots.

 

[ex j-41]

Keep in mind that management is very reactive. They wake up one morning and see that 30 pilot have given their notice. So they give the go ahead to hire 15. So now you have 30 Captains that quit. 30 f/o's are given an upgrade. So you have 60 people off line. But all's good because you just hired 15. 10 of which are going to pass training. 30 days later management sees that fatigued calls are up. Cancellations are increasing and revenue is down. It's all labors fault. Those SOBs just don't want to work. Time to initiate "leadership by fear". Management will now threaten those that call in sick, interrogate those that call in fatigued. Junior Mann calls go out, and if you refuse you are fired. Then the economy catches up, staffing is adequate so flights start to leave on time again, bonuses go out. Other airlines start hiring again and weeeeee we are back at the top again....

 

[BrickTop]

No one listens to me.........I told you so.

 

[JustaNumber]

I believe it's the recent change in corporate bankruptcy law that is responsible for a complete change in philosophy at the major airlines.

It used to be that the bankruptcy laws were a total joke. USAir went into bankruptcy protection 3 times in almost as many years. United stayed in bankruptcy for 3 years, and its CEO had the cahones to admit he was using the process to gain a competitive advantage. The catch phrase of the past decade was "gaining market share." The airlines just wanted growth, even if they were losing money, as they figured an eventual bankruptcy filing would allow them to sort out their finances later.

Now that the bankruptcy laws have changed, many airlines are realizing that this is getting harder to do. So airlines are actually trying not to lose money on flights for a change. This means capacity reductions, without caring about the once sacrosanct "market share." And since all airlines now care about costs, they aren't worrying about a competitor swooping in and replacing the discarded money-losing flights with new money-losing flights.

So that's why all the flights are full, airfares are up almost 20% over last year, and there's still layoffs for pilots.

For the regional industry, there are additional concerns. The majors have decided that profit is the ONLY consideration now, and so they're using the capacity reductions to their fullest advantage, to get shrinking regionals to fight amongst themselves for the remaining flying. So now regionals are playing the "market share" game, while flying at a loss. Obviously this is unsustainable, and at some point something's got to give. The industry cannot survive by eating its young; there will be significant changes coming, one way or the other.

 

[zawillif]

How do we go from constant hiring/cant find enough pilots, etc.... to within 2 months, several regionals furloughing, hiring stopped and bankrupt regionals possibly on the horizon?

All of this with NO major increase in oil...no MAJOR worldly events, and most of us still working with post 9/11 contracts?

WTF is going on?!

It's the death of the 50 seaters. They've been saying its coming for the past couple years. Now that contracts are starting to end you're seeing the beginning of a long slow death.

 

[Oakum_Boy]

Problem is, managment are in denial. Paycut after paycut after paycut ala Comair. That's the way forward for most regionals, I'm afraid. Couple this with the new regs that are going to require me to "affirm" that I'm fatigue free, more days on the road, fewer legs per day....

It's all over folks. You MUST know it by now. RIP.

Yes, I think it's finally at a point where I am perfectly OK throwing in the towel. Not an awful way to spend a decade and a half.

 

[cynic]

....... So now regionals are playing the "market share" game, while flying at a loss. Obviously this is unsustainable, and at some point something's got to give. The industry cannot survive by eating its young; there will be significant changes coming, one way or the other.

You are correct except that nothing will change. Perhaps a few of the regionals will go under but that's about it. That situation can stay as it is for some time!